11,000 cases a day in the UK

[samplegirl]

so unnecessary. 3rd wave!

[Duncanpup]

1. It's going to ravage us

Those that are not vaccinated

[Johnny2X2X]

2. It's 8,000 a day there

Which is the equivalent of 40,000 a day here controlled for population. And there at about 10 deaths a day.

It’s going to linger for months and months in some parts of the US, but no one will really care anymore.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. "Unnecessary"?

There is an argument that the banning of flights from India should have happened earlier, I suppose, to keep the delta variant out. But it's not clear if that would have made that much difference; the infectiousness of that variant only became apparent after the ban, and as it spread from Lancashire. The UK has done more vaccination, which is slowing the spread, than any major nation; and has been more locked down than many countries, during the spread of the variant. And, given the length and strength of lockdown the UK has already had (more than the US, for instance), and the amount of vaccination done, it has not really been realistic to expect a return to a stronger lockdown.

The number new of hospitalizations per million is still lower in the UK than in the USA or France: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-hospital-admissions-covid-per-million ; in another week or two, it might be the highest of the three.

[malaise]

4. With all the Covid around cricket, I find it shocking that

Last edited Sat Jun 19, 2021, 04:13 PM - Edit history (1)

Indian cricket test team and officials are playing in England right now.
The wife of a neighbour returned to India to have a baby nearly three years ago and decided to stay there with their two boys. Since the surge she never left her home but had stuff delivered. She is just recovering from COVID - was useless for 21 days. The kids were moved to the grand parents after negative tests.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. The team quarantined for 2 weeks in India before travelling,

and then, I think, 10 days in England.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/cricket/icc-world-test-championship/indian-players-not-allowed-to-meet-each-other-for-three-days-in-southampton/articleshow/83227284.cms
https://cricketaddictor.com/cricket-news/cricket-covid-and-the-unnatural-long-england-indian-team-tour/

[LisaL]

6. She never left her home but still got infected?

That's some infectious variant. Must have been on something that got delivered?

[malaise]

8. I spoke with her on Facetime and she said she never left home because she was

protecting her boys.

[WarGamer]

7. Cases aren't as relevant as deaths/hospitalizations...

How are those looking?

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. They're increasing, but more slowly

New admissions to hospital:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

From a 7 day average low around 15 May of about 100 to 202 on 12 June - so doubled in about 4 weeks.

Deaths:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

From a low of about 6 on 21 May to 7.7 on 10 Jun - which would be an increase of about 50% in 4 weeks. (the numbers are very low, so it may be noise, but there's some reason to think deaths have plateaued for a week or so).

That compares with cases in the last 4 weeks going up from about 2,500 to 9,100 ( https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases ) - 3.6 times.

[WarGamer]

10. I'll keep an eye on the vaccinated folks ending up in hospitals...

if that happens... we're in deeeeep shit.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. The vaccine doesn't completely stop hospitalization or death from the delta variant

According to latest data from PHE, a single dose of vaccine reduces a person's chances of catching coronavirus and needing hospital treatment by about 75%, even with Delta circulating in the UK.

And among people who had received the recommended two doses, the chances of catching and being hospitalised by coronavirus was reduced by more than 90%.

Of 806 people infected with the Delta variant who ended up hospital in England between 1 February and 14 June 2021:

527 (65%) people were unvaccinated
135 (17%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
84 (10%) were more than 14 days after their second dose
As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test, and of these:

34 (47%) were unvaccinated
10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57525891

[ProfessorGAC]

12. One Caution, WG

I looked this up earlier this week.
In the US, 96% of all vaccinations were Moderna or Pfizer. Given the 2 shot regime, about 91% of all fully vaxxed Americans got the mRNA technology.
In the UK, barely over 20% of vaccines administered were mRNA. The vast majority there were Oxford/Astra-Zeneca.
The 2 shot adjustment gets the UK to almost exactly 18% vs. the US value of >91%.
Data suggests the mRNA technology is quite effective against the variant, just not quite as good as other strains.
Given that outcome, and the huge difference in vaccine type distribution, comparing the UK to the US is tenuous.
Apples to oranges, so to speak.

[WarGamer]

13. Thanks Professor...

What worries me... is globally, the non-vaccinated people provide a perfect Petri Dish for CV to mutate and adapt.

If it's gone from Alpha to Delta, who's to say that Foxtrot or Kilo won't gate crash vaccinated folks?

I think CV will still be mutating a year from now, in the wild... maybe 2 more years?