David Frum: Trump Is Preparing for the Worst

[babylonsister]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/07/trump-organization-allen-weisselberg-indictment-new-york/619340/


Trump Is Preparing for the Worst
Watch for early indications that the legal process may end badly for the former president.
By David Frum
July 1, 2021

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
“What brought it on?”
“Friends,” said Mike. “I had a lot of friends.”

— Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

snip//

One of Trump’s skills as a politician is preparing the battlefield in advance. In the case of his first impeachment, he chose to argue outright innocence—“it was a perfect call”—and no matter how mountainous the evidence of wrongdoing, that was the line he maintained to the end.

This time, though, Trump is not claiming that “all taxes were paid” or that “it was a perfect tax return.” He’s readying his supporters for bad revelations about his company’s taxes and directing them to a fallback line that singling him out as a tax scofflaw is politically unfair.

That line of defense may well rally Trump’s supporters. It will not do him much good in court. It’s impossible for tax collectors to scrutinize every return. Selecting high-profile evaders and holding them to account is how tax laws are enforced. And if a former president numbers among those high-profile evaders, that makes the case for targeting him stronger, not weaker. It sends the message that the tax authorities most want to send: Everybody has to pay, especially powerful politicians. In 1974, former President Richard Nixon faced a review of his taxes that ultimately presented him with a bill equal to half his net worth at the time. Members of Congress have faced indictment for tax evasion, as have high-profile state and local officials.

Trump and his team already appear to expect that the law will be against him. They are counting on that fact not to matter very much—not enough to overcome the political hullabaloo they hope to raise in Trump’s defense.

Trump worked all his life on the theory that law can be subordinated to political favors and political pressures. That theory has carried him this far—and it’s pretty far, all things considered. We are now about to see a mighty test, before the country and the world, of whether that theory will carry him the rest of the way home.

[empedocles]

1. traitortrump supporters all seem to be marching in step. Nothing but, 'its all political'

[BeerBarrelPolka]

2. This

This will only endear him to his followers even more. They idolize folks who can snub their noses at the law.

[babylonsister]

3. Maybe, maybe not considering

they're required to pay taxes.

[gratuitous]

33. I responded to someone on a local news Facebook page

He'd written something to the effect that anyone who sticks it to the IRS is all right in his book. I responded by saying, "So the rest of us have to pick up the amount the Trump Organization chiseled us for?" The post I responded to was deleted. It would seem this is not something that's occurred to Trump's fanboiz, or that they know it's a very bad defense if you merely scratch its surface.

[babylonsister]

34. Not deep thinkers, are they.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

43. Yes! And so simple to get.... Although they didn't care

when we heard he only paid a small amt over 10 years.

Hope he loses at least some of them?

[FSogol]

6. They should all stop paying their taxes too. Let's see if they get the same treatment as Trumpy.

[PortTack]

32. Yes, they do like that sort of nonsense, but tfg is still his own worst enemy

Just like the OH rally he rambled on with the usual storyline until rally goers were sick of his nonsense and left. This story won’t age well either

[NCjack]

4. If Trump knows other major tax cheats, he should give the names evidence

he has to the IRS now and claim cash rewards that paid to informers. Otherwise, reporters should point out each time he makes the claim that "the prosecutor is picking on me" that he knows other tax cheaters but refuses to tell us.

[JudyM]

9. Maybe exposing the entire Epstein network would be worth a reduced charge.

[Wounded Bear]

17. Trump himself would be "epsteined" before they let that happen...

[Fyrefox]

5. Trump's stock defenses have served him well...

Trump maintains, of course, that it’s all a “witch hunt.” His base will either believe no ill about him, or simply don’t care. They like Trump’s style, he’s their champion against the “elites,” and nothing will sway them in their support...

[multigraincracker]

7. "witch hunt."

TFG a year ago.

“Trump twice amplified supporters’ criticisms of Attorney General William Barr, including one featuring a meme calling on him to ‘arrest somebody!’ He wondered aloud why his rivals, like President Barack Obama, Democratic nominee Joe Biden and former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton hadn’t been imprisoned for launching a ‘coup’ against his administration.”

https://politicalwire.com/2020/10/07/trump-calls-for-arrests-of-his-political-enemies/

[Elessar Zappa]

8. He can't win with just his cult

and this trial will turn even more lukewarm supporters away from him.

[TheRickles]

10. Thanks for making this key point.

[gab13by13]

13. The 1/6 insurrection hearings will also turn more people away,

from REPUBLICANS. We need to keep Republicans ties to the insurrection.

[Elessar Zappa]

24. Yes.

Every single Republican needs to have that hung around their neck.

[wnylib]

26. I think that he will be able to energize

his supporters over this. Might even inspire some to violence in the belief that he should be "reinstated" and will be in August.

[johnthewoodworker]

11. A Trumptard is never afraid of truth. He'll just lie. The usual.

[gab13by13]

12. So is MF45 still under audit?

"sarcasm"

[2Gingersnaps]

16. Oh yeah! Big time!

[Harker]

14. Maybe he can rouse a murderous rabble

to conduct an armed assault on whatever prison he winds up in.

[2Gingersnaps]

15. Still utterly amazes me

That the most antigovernment militia types, Proud Boys, Boogaloo Boys, Oath Keepers, 3 percenters, Bundy's signed right up to be his Brown Shirts. God knows he tried to co-opt the military but most of those guys have read the Constitution and remember the oath they took to protect it. Too bad Mike Flynn's ego far outstrips his ability.

[Harker]

20. The Byzantine knot of connections should become clearer

by way of the House select committee and the criminal trials of the insurrectionists.

I'm ready to be shocked.

[NeoGreen]

18. There is a quote from one of my favorite authors...

... that seems apropos:

“There was a man," remarked Captain Eliot, "who was sentenced to death for stealing a horse from a common. He said to the judge, that he thought it hard to be hanged for stealing a horse from a common; and the judge answered, "You are not to be hanged for stealing a horse from a common, but that others may not steal horses from commons.”

As quoted by the character Captain Elliot: Book 4 – Mauritius Command, 1977
by Patrick O'Brian

[Pluvious]

36. That's very apt, thanks for sharing (nt)

[bucolic_frolic]

19. Never knew that about Nixon, thought it was only Spiro

Of course there was Bebe and Donald (Nixon).

Frum's been quiet.

[Hortensis]

30. :) Here's a recent mot from Frum:

Link to tweet

[marble falls]

21. The worst? Throw the kids under the bus? Throw a tantrum? Barracade himself in at Mar-a-Lago?

[Hortensis]

22. "Trump worked all his life on the theory that law can be subordinated" -- PERIOD.

He took pride in breaking the law. With computers, btw, it's not impossible for tax collectors to scrutinize every return, including ones that are wheeled in on hand trucks. If RWers want to elect criminals, we should do our best to make their choices convicted criminals.

Also from Mr. Frum:

Link to tweet

[ProfessorGAC]

38. +1

And if one really had net assets of $4.8 billion (his first big lie), and got HALF the return of index funds, that would be >$220 million pretax.
Why would someone with that kind of income bother with 60 grand a year?
Remember, he often paid no taxes, and paid paltry 3 figure sums.
So, he was so good at avoiding taxes on more than $200 million, he paid none, but obviously cheated over 60 grand a year??
Yeah, he's not that rich.

[Hortensis]

39. Yes. David Frum commented on the peculiarly small amounts of

a supposed billionaire's frauds, as in "why bother?," compared to those we know to be genuine ultrawealthy criminals.

[Jarqui]

23. There's another shoe or more going to drop

As more information comes out, more folks can pin down what has gone on.

Two (among many) things we know so far:
- he (his org) has been accused of cheating on taxes and it looks bad - 15 counts
- from that, Trump's personally guaranteed corporate loans are technically defaulted because he didn't keep accurate records (a basis of the tax claims and a requirement of corporate loans).
Therefore, the banks can call their loans on his devalued properties which they likely will to try to maximize their recovery from a sinking ship.

But Trump used bogus financial statements to get bank loans, as Michael Cohen alleged Trump did and provided some evidence Trump did, then the banks seeking to recover $ can squeeze Trump with "pay us first or we'll nail you for bank fraud" Since Trump is cash poor or his assets might be frozen due to the tax proceedings, he won't be able to satisfy them all and there's a good chance bank fraud charges are going to be added as the information coming out snowballs and people realize they're going to lose a lot of money.

I think this is just the start of bad stuff that is going to happen.

We saw in the Manafort case - largely about tax evasion and bogus loan applications, the numbers on the paper mean something: it's income or it is expense, etc. It is hard to lie about that stuff. They had him handily dead to rights.

Weisselberg may take the fall for the tax evasion as it does not appear to be a large amount. But I doubt he wants to spend the rest of his life in jail for bank fraud.

We know Trump's company is a house of cards.

Trump can't lie his way of this one so easily. It's harder to pin him with no emails but he signed off with his personal guarantee so he had to have significant knowledge.

[msfiddlestix]

28. Very interesting, thank you for breaking that down so logically and this also gives me some measure

of hope, that some measure of justice will prevail.

[Jarqui]

31. I did study law but went through for engineering

So I'm not a lawyer.

I have been involved with a few lawsuits - still am.
I also read a lot of the court documents for Manafort's case - the claim, the defense, transcripts and evidence. It was a slam dunk. They nailed Manafort. I thought back then it was a blueprint for Trump. Even before he was elected, I mentioned he'd probably go down something like Al Capone. That's starting to come true.

There is one other obvious part I missed: Trump's personal taxes. You have to know, from all his efforts to hide them, there's something very incriminating there. And it is probably ten times more than Weissenberg's tab - which drives up the criminal sentencing as Manafort found out ...

Trump probably knows all this. I don't think he's capable or reliable long term scheming. He's likely to have a few more tricks up his sleeve - though those will probably run out. I don't know if they'll ever get him in jail but this will erode his political fortunes even though there will be plenty of deadheads who still support him.

[msfiddlestix]

40. Your efforts in explaining the process has aided me greatly

regardless of not being a lawyer, your experiences and background knowledge gives you a measure of information on procedures which have eluded me for the past several years. I always knew investigations into criminal activity do not always lead to charges, or in turn do not necessarily lead to prosecution and convictions. But sheesh, seems like a hell of a lot of corruption and criminal activity going on for decades in TFG's case went ignored or covered up. Consequences have been devastating to our country.

Add to that the terribly slow actions, obfuscations enabled by the courts and previous DOJ have lead to rather dismal conclusions regarding our justice system.

I've very recently became roped in as a witness for a so called "elder abuse" charge from one neighbor against another. Both neighbors suffer some form of psychological and emotional problems to put it mildly, but the one charging the other is a serial liar, actually the bully, with an agenda which she should not be able to succeed in accomplishing.

The legal system however is in their own way enabling her to continue her fraudulent schemes with delay tactics and avoidance to a slew of court orders. At the expense of the real victim.

The court hearings have been held on zoom, and yesterday was a real doozer. Following a number of bizarre misbehavior's, she was still granted a continuance to fit her invented excuses for not agreeing to mediation and settle this cause of action.

I know, and don't expect our justice system to be perfect, but I'm tired of the "it's the best we've got".. seems like improvements are possible and could be made.

Thank you again for sharing your knowledge and experience. It has been very informative and helps me to understand these procedures quite a bit more clearly.

Here's hoping the time is near, for justice in the case of the TRump Criminal Enterprises.

[wnylib]

29. He also signed the tuition checks

for Weisselberg's grandchildren.

[lindysalsagal]

35. Unlike most news-worthy political stories, there is real money on the line, not just reputation

Normally, there would be 2 politicians throwing mud, trying to tarnish the other's image in order to render them less politically viable. I love this part of the story where there's no "bad guy" that frump can swing at: Only frump's dollars are in jeopardy, and in that sense, the fight is already over. He's the only possible loser, here. No good endings for frump exist in this new scenario: Even if he's not jailed, whatever his "business" was, it's over. This is not about opinions, it's only about dollars. Frump's dollars. No one else's.

[msfiddlestix]

25. Interesting analysis and perspective

it feels spot on to me, regardless of my perceptions of Frum, whom I have struggled to accept into my world of political pundits worthy of respect. So hard to leave the defenders of the Iraq invasion "in the past".

[RevBrotherThomas]

27. Nothing will stick to the Teflon Don... at least while he's alive

Unfortunately I believe his lawyers will be able to delay, obfuscate, stonewall everything until dear leader's death.

His imbecilic spawn won't be as lucky, IMO

[Blue Owl]

37. Brace for impact, FF45

[sellitman]

41. He will announce he is running again I predict

This will play out well with battle to call the indictments politically based.

[EndlessWire]

42. Yeah

He'll say that he is immune because he is running for President. It'll be something like that. Protection under the Constitution, or precedent, or something.