Kyrsten Sinema has dangerously low favorability among Arizona Democrats (Mother Jones)

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

Tweet text:
Ari Berman
@AriBerman
95% of Arizona Dems approve of Biden & 75% of Mark Kelly but only 42% approve of @SenatorSinema

"66% of Democrats said that if given the chance in a 2024 Senate primary, they would 'vote for a different candidate who would get rid of the filibuster.'"

Exclusive first look: Kyrsten Sinema has dangerously low favorability among Arizona Democrats
These kinds of numbers could encourage a serious primary challenge from the left.
motherjones.com
12:04 PM · Jul 20, 2021

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/07/new-poll-arizona-democrats-love-biden-and-kelly-kyrsten-sinema-not-so-much/

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s support for the Senate filibuster appears to be doing real damage to her political brand back home. The first-term Arizona Democrat has often defended the Senate’s 60-vote supermajority requirement as a necessary check on partisan whiplash, arguing that it forces the chamber to put together “durable” coalitions. But according to a new survey shared with Mother Jones from the progressive polling and policy firm Data for Progress, her stance has left her far less popular in Arizona than either President Joe Biden or her recently elected Senate colleague, Mark Kelly—and perhaps even vulnerable to a primary challenge.

According to the survey, which was conducted from June 28 to July 6th, Sinema is viewed favorably by 38 percent of voters, compared to 47 percent for Kelly and 51 percent for Biden—all of whom were elected in recent years by similar margins to Sinema. (Republican Gov. Doug Ducey’s favorability sits at 44 percent.) The numbers are more stark when you look at the partisan breakdown. Sinema is viewed favorably by just 42 percent of Democrats (with 39 percent viewing her unfavorably), while Kelly, who was elected narrowly last fall, is at 75 percent favorability with just 17 percent viewing him unfavorably. Biden? He’s doing just fine according to Arizona Democrats, with 95 percent viewing him positively.

Beyond the toplines, though, there are some ominous numbers for Sinema’s long-term standing back home. Democratic voters overwhelmingly support a $15 minimum wage according the survey; Sinema drew the ire of activists this spring for casting a largely symbolic vote against adding such a minimum-wage hike to the coronavirus stimulus package. They support getting rid of the legislative filibuster and overwhelmingly back the PRO Act, which would expand rights and protections for labor unions, but which Sinema has not signed onto.

After voters were read a script linking the filibuster to Republican obstruction, 66 percent of Democrats said that if given the chance in a 2024 Senate primary, they would “vote for a different candidate who would get rid of the filibuster.”

*snip*

[PoliticAverse]

1. I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't run for a 2nd term but takes a lucrative corporate gig instead

[lagomorph777]

16. Probably would be easier to run as a Reptilian at this point.

[Demsrule86]

56. She is up in 22.

[NurseJackie]

2. Any Republican who replaces her would also NOT vote to eliminate the filibuster...

... and the balance of power in the Senate would change. We would lose a seat and the GOP would gain a seat. That would give the GOP a TWO-SEAT advantage.

Count your blessings everyone. Stop trying to run her (and Manchin) out of town on a rail. Work instead to flip vulnerable GOP seats from red to blue.

[padfun]

3. So replace her with a Democrat

nt

[lagomorph777]

17. Bingo.

Leaving aside the primary, AZ Dems hate her enough that she won't get enough votes to win in the general election. She needs to go.

[BlueLucy]

25. I agree with you.

Democrats need to find someone who can beat her in the primary. In my opinion Sinema would lose a general election.

[Gregory Peccary]

4. I don't think anyone here is advocating she be re[placed by a Repub

Work to replace her with a Democrat willing to actually do what's necessary to accomplish Biden's agenda.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

5. I cannot agree.

Sinema bows out and we run a strong Democrat in her place, and we beat the republican!

She really needs to go.

[NurseJackie]

6. In the real world, that's not going to happen. Wishful thinking.

And even if successful, it's just maintaining the status quo. We're still at a 50/50 "disadvantage" in the Senate. Why not do MORE and replace a vulnerable GOP senator? Wouldn't that be better???

[padfun]

8. ?? Seriously??

Arizona is turning blue. Pima county has always been blue, but Maricopa county has been moving that way and is now blue, especially since it is getting younger. It is the small towns that are red, just like the rest of the country.

The Democrat should win all seats from here. If not, it is our fault for not taking this seriously.

[NurseJackie]

10. Yes, seriously. It's NOT a "blue state" and any Democrat who wins there...

Yes, seriously. It's NOT a "blue state" and any Democrat who wins there to take her place will be a very centrist or right-center politician. If not an outright LOSS to the GOP, it would be swapping same-for-same.

Better, instead, to focus the effort on FLIPPING a seat. Find a vulnerable GOP senator and get a Democrat to take their place. ONE flipped seat gives us a TWO-SEAT advantage.

Stop fixating on Sinema and Manchin, people. Go after vulnerable Republicans instead.

Jesus.

[padfun]

13. Then we agree to disagree

Because Arizona IS turning blue. I grew up in AZ and my family is here. It has been moving blue all along.

There is a reason the Arizona Republicans are in panic mode. They see the writing on the wall.

[NurseJackie]

14. Turn-ING... but it's not blue now. It's a reddish purple. Still very conservative...

Because Arizona IS turning blue.

Turn-ING... but it's not blue now. It's a reddish purple. Still very conservative... and that's who they'll elect. Someone just like her (or worse).

[Celerity]

36. Kelly is not against modifications and/or exceptions to the filibuster (he may even vote to bin it

completely) and he won without a 2018-style Blue Wave, in an election where the Rethugs had massive turnout.

His example is strong evidence that you are wrong when you posit a dichotomous choice of 'Sinema or a Rethug' as the only two outcomes.

Sinema is also up for re-election in 2024, not 2022, so we will not be fighting the historical tide in 2022 that has decimated us the last 2 first Dem POTUS mid-terms (1996 and 2010).

[dsc]

46. I don't particularly mind a centrist Dem

my biggest problem with her is her manifest lack of seriousness. Compare her an Manchin for a second. He has met with the Texas Dems he hasn't. He has stated exactly what he wants, she hasn't. She just plain is a unserious person for unserious times.

[NurseJackie]

47. I agree she leaves a lot to be desired.

But I'm so very thankful that we have her.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

9. I must admit that I LOATHE Manchin and Sinema.

They hurt us. They are not true Democrats.

I think in the long haul that your idea is better. But right now, not so much. They talk about bipartisanship and it doesn't happen.

[NurseJackie]

12. They ARE true Democrats, Peggy.

They're not as liberal as you'd like them to be, but they ARE Democrats.

But right now, not so much.

Waiting is the hardest part. Planning ahead and having a strong strategy for the future and strengthening our party is also hard, but infinitely more rewarding when it all comes together.

Doing things to sabotage our own party and our own politicians (because someone isn't "pure" enough to be thought of as being "true" Democrats) is very short sighted. It's ego-driven, vanity-driven, and revenge-driven... that's not how we move forward. That's not how we grow and strengthen the party.

[lagomorph777]

19. Opposing the Filibuster and voting rights is signing their own political pink slips.

They can't win their re-elections if Reptilians successfully suppress Democratic voters.

[NurseJackie]

21. Then it's too late. They've already won.

We should just pack-it-in and go home. Or, we could continue to fight and replace/flip vulnerable GOP senate seats. Why work so hard to maintain the same 50/50 split when just ONE flipped seat would give us a TWO-SEAT advantage. Another flipped seat would give us a FOUR-SEAT advantage.

We need an advantage in numbers right now. Not some ideological purity test that forces conservative Democrats out (to be likely replaced with the same... or worse yet, to be replaced with an actual GOP politician)

It just makes no sense to attack and weaken our own politicians. We don't have to love them all, but we do need to think ahead and place LESS value on "revenge" and MORE value on strategy.

[lagomorph777]

24. We have to do both. If we don't flip Manchin and Sinema somehow, yeah, we have lost.

If we don't protect the election system now, we are fully screwed in 2022 and 2024 (and forever thereafter).
But yes, of course, we also need to pick up more seats so they can't put us in this position again.

[Celerity]

41. You mean flip their votes to support certain things correct? Manchin and Sinema in 2024 are two

different things. Sinema will very likely be primaried in 2024, and will likely lose (barring big changes) if we can find another Kelly type of moderate (who would have a great chance to win the general as well). The main danger is that a too far left (on the US ideological scale, which is skewed hard to the right versus most of the rest of the advanced Western nations) Sanderite type candidate beats Sinema in the primary, as they will have a far rougher time winning in the general.

Manchin, IF he even runs again in 2024, will very, very likely win his primary but then has a good shot at losing the general, as he will not have the huge Blue Wave of 2018 to aid him (he barely won even with that). IF he was defeated in a primary, that winner would likely be crushed in the general. I cannot see any other Dem after Manchin winning in West Virginia for a LONG time.

[radius777]

60. If we convince Gov. Jim Justice to switch back to Dem,

he could possibly win. He's actually to the left of Manchin on economic issues and seems supportive of much of Biden's agenda. And WV has a history of electing Dems to the Senate.

I agree Manchin will likely lose as he voted to impeach Trump twice, and the state is very pro-Trump. But who knows, Manchin does have a strong personal connection to the state, and if not for him, nobody would even know where WV is on a map. He has a lot of power in DC and the WV voters may not want to give that up.

Sinema can easily be beaten by a better centrist Dem (such as AZ SoS Katie Hobbs or Rep. Reuben Gallego, a Latino and military veteran) who can win statewide easily in AZ which is purple and trending blue. Sinema is not a good candidate and barely defeated the terrible McSally in the midterms when Dems had blue wave energy.

[Celerity]

62. Katie Hobbs is running for governor in 2022 (Ducey is term-limited) or she would be the most

likely challenger. I suppose she might run in 2024 if she loses in 2022, but let's all hope she wins the Governorship!

Other possible Sinema primary opponents are:

Charlene Fernandez, minority leader of the Arizona House of Representatives
Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix
Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district
Tom O'Halleran, U.S. representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district
Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district, and former Mayor of Phoenix


(I posted this in another thread previously)

[Demsrule86]

57. Really? Well I love them. Thanks to them we have a majority.

[Ace Rothstein]

18. Why not do both?

Get rid of a wishy-washy Dem and replace a Republican elsewhere. These aren't mutually exclusive.

[NurseJackie]

22. One comes with greater risk. The other comes with greater benefit.

That's why.

[Ace Rothstein]

40. Sinema being on the ballot is a risk.

People will just stay home instead of going out to vote with her approval rating.

[NurseJackie]

42. Well, find some New England style candidate and see how that works.

[Ace Rothstein]

43. There's a huge gulf between Sinema and New England style candidate.

Let's find someone in the middle. Running someone with a 42% approval rating with their own party is a great way to suppress your own voters.

[BlueLucy]

27. Why not do both?

Sinema is a liability for democrats right now. If democrats don't do something to beat her in a primary with a good candidate, we will lose AZ.

[NurseJackie]

28. One comes with greater risk. The other comes with greater benefit.

That's why.

"A bird in the hand," and all that.

Would you rather RISK losing her seat to an actual Republican? Or would you prefer to just leave her in place for now and spend our time and effort and money toward the goal of FLIPPING a GOP seat?

If we lose her seat to a GOP challenger, then we would be TWO VOTES BEHIND.

But if we FLIP a GOP seat elsewhere, then we're TWO VOTES AHEAD.

The math doesn't lie.

[BlueLucy]

29. I don't think we have a choice.

In my opinion working to keep her is a bigger risk of losing the seat than working to find a good candidate to primary her.

[NurseJackie]

30. Yes, we have a choice. That's my point...

... I don't know how I could have been any clearer. Sorry, I can't help you any further.

[BlueLucy]

31. I don't understand why limiting ourselves to only do one?

It's not doing one or the other.. We can work to flip a seat from red to blue AND primary Sinema. Doing nothing, leaving her in place will flip AZ red.

[NurseJackie]

32. Incumbents have an advantage.

Unless they've been kneecapped and bloodied and had their campaign funds drained with an unnecessary primary. Challengers who defeat an incumbent do not have the same advantage that an incumbent has. Why risk it? Just leave her in place for now and focus efforts on "kneecapping" and "bloodying" other vulnerable GOP senators. Replace THEM and we have a greater advantage (with less risk).

Living in the real world, I've always been someone who thinks strategically rather than emotionally.

[BlueLucy]

44. I would normally agree with you.

I think this situation is different. I think Sinema is resented enough by democrats that it would take effort to vote for her.

[muriel_volestrangler]

37. Can you explain why "in the real world, that's not going to happen"

"only 42% approve of @SenatorSinema

"66% of Democrats said that if given the chance in a 2024 Senate primary, they would 'vote for a different candidate who would get rid of the filibuster"

So, in the real world, she looks eminently vulnerable to a primary. In the real world, Biden and Kelly won Arizona, statewide, so another Democrat can.

No, it wouldn't be "maintaining the status quo"; you'd have a Democrat willing to get rid of the filibuster.

Your attitude seems to be "the Democrats can only concentrate on one senate race per election". In the real world, that's not how American politics works.

[SunImp]

51. Spot on

[Sympthsical]

39. Mark Kelly says hey

It has already happened in the real world.

If you're going to be so assertive of fact, at least work with the existing ones. Eesh.

[tenderfoot]

49. Then how did she and Mark Kelly get elected?

eom

[radius777]

59. Comparing her and Manchin is apples and oranges.

Manchin is possibly the only Dem who can win in a deep red (and very white/conservative) state like WV.

However, AZ is diverse and purple and trending blue. Dems have won several recent statewide races (Sinema, SoS Katie Hobbs, Biden, Kelly). Sinema barely beat the terrible McSally and is not a good campaigner. Another better centrist Dem such as Katie Hobbs or Rep. Reuben Gallego (who is a Latino and a military veteran) could easily defeat the clueless Sinema in a primary and win the GE against a Republican.

[hlthe2b]

7. Well, if they are like me they hear her name & recall the smirk and flitty little gesture as she

voted against the minimum wage increase. I'm unlikely to ever forget that stunt.

Link to tweet

[padfun]

11. If Sinema runs again, we lose this seat.

This is one we have to fight for, or we lose it. She wont win here again.

[11 Bravo]

15. It wasn't just her vote against the minimum wage ...

it was the contemptuous manner in which she cast it.

Fuck her and her cutesy-pie little curtsey.

[Johonny]

20. This

She's done nothing to prevent an actual democrat from primarying her.

[NurseJackie]

26. She IS an actual Democrat. Conservative Democrats are still Democrats.

[PortTack]

33. I have family there that are active in the party. Voters there feel totally betrayed by her

And rightly so. If they put up a decent candidate to primary her, we stand a good chance of keeping the seat

[NurseJackie]

34. Democratic activist voters probably do feel that way...

... but not all voters in Arizona are Democrats. It's possible that she could be primaried out and that some New England style liberal could be ushered-in as the nominee. But I guarantee you that Arizona voters will not vote to put a Bernie Sanders type of politician in that seat. It's just not going to happen. Winning a nomination is much different than winning a statewide race.

[PortTack]

38. The party their is very much aware of their voters inclinations..that's one reason they have been

So successful.

Phoenix has a fairly new very progressive female mayor and they love her. The state has been populated over the last 15 yrs by ppl leaving CA and bringing with them their liberal voting habits. It really is pretty blue in the large metro areas.

The other big player is the Native American population. We are more in jeopardy of losing that seat due to the voter restrictions there that will affect this population than any other single factor

[BlueLucy]

45. Of course not a Bernie style candidate

I agree with you about AZ not going for that kind of candidate in a primary much less a general election. I could see a Doug Jones type there though. Doug Jones is a very loyal democrat who would vote to end the filibuster.

[dansolo]

52. But she isn't just a conservative Democrat

She is an attention seeking, former Green narcissist. At least with Manchin, you know what you have. She has gone against most of her previously held positions, most of which are what got her elected in the first place. She seems more than willing to sabotage Democratic efforts for reform, without any discernable reason. I don't trust her. We can find another person like Mark Kelly to primary her.

[dalton99a]

23. Sinema (D-Ariz.) is really Sinema (Sinema-Sinema)

Sinema doesn't give a shit about Democrats or the Democratic Party

[mcar]

35. Gotta wonder why she's doing this, then

It's not helping her reelection chances.

[tenderfoot]

48. Maybe if she would represent the people that actually voted for her

rather than pleasing those who voted AGAINST her.

[Desert Dog]

53. Sinema's future: Independent or Fox News

I am not sure a politician has ever frustrated me more. As a supporter from her old house district, I can not believe what a spineless disappointment she has become. History is in her grasp and she is running and hiding from the tough choices. I just don't get it. She was on an earnest path and she jumped off.. Why?

Sinema is in complete no-mans land now. Dems in my area have grown to loathe her. Either Stanton or Gallego will crush her next time. I always wondered how she won the Democratic senatorial primary only challenged by Deedra Abboud, the muslim feminist. It was like the spot was gifted to Sinema by the AZ Democratic party.

Republicans will NEVER vote for Sinema. They might claim to like her spunk, her charisma or her independence, but some establishment Republican (usually white male) will talk about family values and they will flock to him.

As many of you know, So called Independents are the majority affiliation in Arizona. We definitely like our politics "Mavericky" here in the Canyon state. Of course many independents are actually very conservative and find AZ GOP to be a laughing stock. See: Fraudit. There are also a lot of Democrats who register "Ind." because we can sometimes make a bigger impact in GOP primaries -when the eventual winner is actually chosen. Plus we don't want to get fired or lose promotions because we hang with BLM.

I am convinced that Sinema is lining up to declare Independent. Right now it is beneficial for Sinema to be a Democrat, and of course benefit to Sinema seems to be all that matters to her. She is loading up the re-election bank account. In 2022, she will jump ship to Independent before the election. Then, depending on outcome.. she will caucus with the winner. Should GOP win, her subservience to McConnell whims now will be paid off then - when they kinda embrace her. When her reelection comes up in 2024, she will skip the party primaries (neither of which she will have a chance in) and go right to the general.

Not sure how she wins that, but I expect it will hurt the Democratic candidate most. She would be betting on a majority of Independents and a handful of Democrats. Gop crew will vote for Gop. The ultimate race would be former Phx Mayor Stanton vs. Sinema vs. Kelli Ward. Stanton might pull independents and win the "I wont act like an idiot" voters.

If Sinema loses.. She is off to Fox News. That network likes it's spineless Democrats to push around and make them look fair and unbiased. I am sure she would reinforce all their frames and cash the checks.

[muriel_volestrangler]

54. She is, however, less popular with Arizona Independents than Kelly or Biden

From the poll in the OP:



https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/7/20/who-is-kyrsten-sinema-really-representing

[radius777]

61. Agree. A better Dem, but still a centrist, would

better mobilize the base while still appealing to independents and moderate Repubs.

SoS Katie Hobbs or Rep. Reuben Gallego would be excellent choices, IMO to take out Sinema in the primary and win the GE against a Republican.

Sinema is not a good candidate, she is clueless politically (remember the 'thumbs down' curtsy for the minimium wage vote), and barely defeated the terrible McSally. There is no guarantee she would defeat a Republican, especially that the Dem base is unlikely to turn out strongly for her.

[Demsrule86]

55. Any Democrat who doesn't vote for Sinema to keep Mitch out of the majority is an idiot...

Sometimes you have to vote for someone you may not like.

[Celerity]

58. That only applies if she wins the primary in 2024. With 66% of AZ Dems wanting another

Last edited Thu Jul 22, 2021, 07:51 PM - Edit history (1)

candidate who will bin the filibuster, and also her favourability being in the mud versus both Kelly and Biden, she is, atm, likely headed for a primary battle. Katie Hobbs is running for governor in 2022 (Ducey is term-limited) or she would be the most likely challenger.

Other possible primary opponents are

Charlene Fernandez, minority leader of the Arizona House of Representatives
Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix
Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district
Tom O'Halleran, U.S. representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district
Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district, and former Mayor of Phoenix


That all said, 2024 is a fairly long way off, so she does have a chance to self-repair. Time will tell.

95% of Arizona Dems approve of Biden & 75% of Mark Kelly but only 42% approve of @SenatorSinema

"66% of Democrats said that if given the chance in a 2024 Senate primary, they would 'vote for a different candidate who would get rid of the filibuster.'"