Israel says Pfizer Covid vaccine is just 39% effective against Delta , still prevents severe illness

[madville]

Pfizer and BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization, according to a new report from the country's Health Ministry.

The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.

However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.

"We have to be mindful that, with time, the effectiveness of these vaccines may wane," said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease professor at the University of Toronto.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

[SoCalDavidS]

1. Death From Covid Is The New Normal In America

We're never going to escape this pandemic.

[madville]

14. Probably not, there will always be a new variant

Even if there are boosters available later, figure 95% of people that got the first vaccine get the first booster. Then 85% of those get the next annual booster, etc, etc. It’s gonna be around for a long time…..think about it, we never get long term or fully immune to the regular flu or cold and their variants either. Why would this disappear as it keeps evolving and vaccines become less effective?

[TheBlackAdder]

25. I saw there was a British Health report that just being vaccinated, Delta better controlled.

.

You have to check out the additional findings that follow the pages I being at, such as the UK report Page 38-39 and more.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15631125

.

[global1]

2. This Is Why So Many People Are Anti-Vaxxers & Anti-Maskers.....

The information we get on a day to day basis is so erratic and contradictory and it is hitting us from all sides.

What to believe?

A week or so ago Pfizer was working on a booster shot and we heard from the authorities that a booster was not necessary and the original shots were more than protective.

Now we're hearing from Israel that the Pfizer shot is only 39% effective against the delta variant.

Couple that with all the dis- and mis- information people are getting from RW media and social media - it's no wonder that so many people are skeptical about these vaccines.

Then you have all the controversy in the schools. Some schools are requiring all teachers and students need to be masked up and others are making it optional. What do parents do?

How about cities now that are requiring all people when out have to be masked up. And other cities are opening up completely.

This is such a sad situation and I don't know if we'll ever be rid of this pandemic.

[SheltieLover]

4. I've read that Israel updated thieir stat of Pfizer being 64% effective

against infection with more recent data to include delta.

Wouldn't it be nice if our own CDC hadn't decided to stop reporting on breakthrough infections & focus only on hospitalizations & deaths of fully vaxed?

Mask up with N-95s - it's a win-win. Can help & sure can't hurt.

😷👍

[madville]

8. 64% was two weeks, 39% is their latest number accounting for Delta

Not good news as Delta become more dominant everywhere.

[SheltieLover]

16. Right!

Adding delta into the is is what dropped # from 64% to 39%.

Stay safe! 😷👍

[wnylib]

51. Maybe the timing is also a factor

in Israel. They started vaccinations early. By now, it's been 6 to 7 months for the earliest vaccinated people. When the vaccines first came out, both Pfizer and Moderna said they felt sure that the vaccines were good protection for 6 months, but could not be sure about longer than that.

The actual field experience now suggests that effectiveness dominishes with time. We might need boosters every 6 months.

[SheltieLover]

52. Absolutely, Wyn!

Not only the time from vaccination, but adding in delta #s because they evolved a bit later.

Stay safe, my friend!

😷👍✌

Ps - Dr Ding's twitter states US health officials looking into booster for vulnerable, prior to approving for everyone!

[Hoyt]

6. I agree. I trust science, but we are into something where the science/knowledge

is subject to update.

Heck, CDC and even Faucci said we didn’t need masks early on. I think that was to avoid panic and recognized masks were in short supply, but still.

I’m relatively pleased with how the “scientists” have done during the entire pandemic, but they clearly made some errors that rubes use to rationalize BS.

[Crunchy Frog]

15. That's how science works. It's ALWAYS updating in response to new data.

That's why I've never taken pronouncements from experts and authority figures as gospel truth. It's a novel virus and we're constantly getting new information and data, which means that what we "know" is only ever a snapshot, and is very likely to change.

Science has never been about static and unchanging truth. It's always been about evidence and data, and constantly changing and updating what we think we know.

Scientific illiteracy in our society is a big part of what's gone wrong with the pandemic.

[Hoyt]

20. Next one of these we have, the "scientists" need to listen to "psychologists,"

Last edited Sat Jul 24, 2021, 10:37 AM - Edit history (1)

who are also “scientists!” before proclaiming stuff as fact.

Like, “At this moment, we don’t think that masks are necessary, but that point may come soon, because this is friggin new.” Of course, trump made things difficult.

[Crunchy Frog]

26. Yes. Practical knowledge of the social sciences appears to be sorely lacking

among those who are supposed to be communicating with the public and making recommendations.

Too many people can't handle uncertainty, and our science people don't seem to do very well in communicating about it.

[Initech]

7. So we're going to be masking and social distancing forever? Fuck.

[LisaL]

12. I hope we can get boosters.

NT

[LisaL]

13. We are clearly going to need boosters.

Why authorities felt the need to declare we didn't is beyond my understanding.

[Initech]

27. They've been predicting this since the beginning.

And me personally I will take whatever shots they need!

[womanofthehills]

57. Supposedly, Pfizer is working on a Delta booster - testing to begin in August, but

by the time it comes out we could be dealing with another variant.

[JI7]

17. It's not that contradictory. Studies all show it's better to get it than not get it

[Doodley]

3. Yet the CDC says if you are fully vaccinated, you don't need a mask. They should be sued.

[Celerity]

5. Israeli study claims major drop in vaccine protection; experts don't believe it

For context, that headline above comes from a link in this article

Israeli, UK data offer mixed signals on vaccine’s potency against Delta strain

Local research claims Pfizer shot now only 41% effective against symptomatic COVID, while British stats have it at 88%

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-data-offer-mixed-signals-on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/

New data from Israel and the United Kingdom painted a confusing and contradictory picture on Thursday as to the effectiveness of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine in fighting off the Delta variant of the coronavirus. New Health Ministry statistics indicated that, on average, the Pfizer shot — the vaccine given to nearly all Israelis — is now just 39% effective against infection, while being only 41% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID. Previously, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was well over 90% effective against infection.

Meanwhile, a new UK study published this week in The New England Journal of Medicine found the same vaccine to be 88% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID — more than twice the rate found in the Israeli data. Israel’s research agreed, at least, that the shot was highly effective in avoiding serious illness, at 91.4% effectiveness.

Some analysts have warned that the figures on vaccine effectiveness are prone to major inaccuracies because of a range of factors, including questions over whether there is accurate data on infection levels among the non-vaccinated, which is vital for such stats. The Israeli statistics also appeared to paint a picture of protection that gets weaker as months pass after vaccination, due to fading immunity. People vaccinated in January were said to have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April, effectiveness was at 75%.

Doctors note that such figures may not only reflect time that has passed since vaccination, but also a bias according to which those who vaccinated early were often people with health conditions and who are more prone to infection, such as the elderly. Reacting to the Israeli figures on Thursday, epidemiologist Nadav Davidovitch, a Ben-Gurion University professor and leader of Israel’s doctors’ union, told The Times of Israel, “What we see is that the vaccine is less effective in preventing transmission, but it’s easy to overlook that it’s still very effective in preventing hospitalization and severe cases.”

snip

here is the linked article


Israeli study claims major drop in vaccine protection; experts don’t believe it

Report says protection against serious COVID-19 illness fell to 80%, or 50% for over-60s; government adviser, physician and health statistics expert all criticize research

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-study-claims-major-drop-in-vaccine-protection-experts-dont-believe-it/

Vaccine effectiveness in preventing serious COVID-19 infection among the elderly has fallen to 50 percent, according to new Israeli figures, but some prominent experts are saying the data shouldn’t be taken seriously. The Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccines were wowing Israelis with sky-high effectiveness rates until the rise of the Delta variant. But according to data recently raised at a top-level Health Ministry meeting, the immunization’s effectiveness in preventing serious illness is now at 80% for the general population and 50% for the elderly.

Israel’s national research body for epidemiology, the Gertner Institute, conducted the research, and Dr. Amit Huppert from its bio-statistical unit told The Times of Israel that policymakers should pay attention. The government “should not be panicked but should take the data seriously, as it’s a warning that should not be ignored,” he said. “Most of us did not believe a month ago we could be in this situation.” He added that policymakers didn’t pay enough attention to data on the Alpha variant which arose in Britain and spread quickly in Israel in early 2021.

But as the numbers ignite concern among Israelis, even the government’s top expert adviser on coronavirus questioned their integrity. The approach taken could result in a “horribly skewed” outcome, argued Prof. Ran Balicer, chairman of Israel’s national expert panel on COVID-19. “Any attempt to deduce severe illness vaccine effectiveness from semi-crude illness rates among the yes or no vaccinated is very, very risky,” he maintained. Infectious diseases doctor Yael Paran told The Times of Israel that she can’t reconcile the figures on serious illness with the much more rosy reality she sees. “What we see in our hospital and around the world don’t support this,” she said. “I think the figures are exaggerated.”

Huppert acknowledged that the statistics have their limitations. “These are early estimations based on small numbers, and there are all kinds of biases in the numbers,” he said. But he insisted that despite the caveats, they still have great relevance. But Paran, a senior physician at Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, argued that the problem with them runs deep, and the definition of “serious illness” has become misleading. It is used for patients whose oxygen saturation drops, which was a good indicator pre-vaccination as it signaled deterioration. But for vaccine-protected patients it is often a brief state that doesn’t signal significant deterioration, she said.

“Take a patient who is in my hospital now as an example,” she said. “He is in his 80s and classed as severe, but only because he had a mild drop in saturation. It was something that any other disease would cause, and which we’re treating well with steroids, but he is classed as a serious case.” Dr. Dvir Aran, an expert in health statistics from the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, said he is concerned the Health Ministry is using “bad research” and allowing it to be presented without context. “The problems aren’t with the vaccine, they are with the data,” he said, branding as “false” the conclusions in the latest data and other research on how well the vaccine prevents infection. The research process “skews the results to make the vaccine seem less effective than it is,” he told The Times of Israel.

[Quixote1818]

9. Well written and makes good points. nt

[SheltieLover]

18. Interesting points

Wouldn't it be nice if the CDC hadn't decided to stop reporting breakthrough infrction #s?

[Celerity]

21. My ultimate concern is the absolute prevention of transmission, as even if the infection is

asymptomatic or very mild in symptom manifestation, that still means the virus (in some mutated form) is still viable, and thus the potentiality for a doomsday variant (such as the already criteria-delineated VOHC, i.e. Variant of High Consequence) still floats about within the realm of possibilities.

I know that many simply want to emphasise the prevention of severe cases and/or deaths, as that is (correctly so) a power tool to convince people to take the vaccines. I just take it to the next level, and meet resistance at times for doing so, as some think (falsely IMHO) that this detracts from the severe disease and/or death prevention emphasis. I absolutely think the two things are linearly compatible (aka the old 'walk and chew gum at the same time' phrasing).

[SheltieLover]

23. Absolutely!

But, thus far, mild & asymptomatic are still shedding a lot of virus!

[Celerity]

29. Yes, and as you stated, the lack of recording of most breakthrough cases is not at all helpful to

determining real word efficacy of each vax against each variant. My efficacy rates I have given you over the course of our multiple colloquies are all from studies that DO trace and record ALL breakthrough infections. Biden has now (and this is only the times I have seen, he could have said it other times as well) twice said that if you get any of the vaccines, there is a 98-99% probability you will not get the infection at all. I am sure he meant to say that you will not get seriously ill to the point of hospitalisation and/or will not die, but now I am running into anti-vaxxers who are tossing out much higher rates of breakthrough infection and then saying that Biden is lying and thus bleating out that the vaccines are shit. I of course can counter that, but the old adage (if you are explaining you are losing) comes into play.

[SheltieLover]

33. Oh I agree fully!

It is a very complex topic, one which I'm sure magats are not comprehending. Lol

And Joe & CDC are pushing highest efficacy #s to enourage idiots to get vaxed.

Their job is to look after everyone. Mine is to keep myself & family alive & well, as I'm sure is yours.

And while we would all be better off with a 100% vax rate, I don't think downplaying reality to encourage idiots is a great plan. But I trust Joe, Kamala et al. They are doing what they believe to be best.

Although I have absolutely no proof, when I saw CDC stop reporting non hospital / fatality breakthroughs, my gut instinct was uh oh. Numbers are not going to be good!

And I think, to an extent, the Israeli reports, although small, point this up.

I personally think humans should stop moving about as much as possible. Climate change & disease transmission seem to result.

There is one person in TX who recently traveled to the States from Nigeria & has monkey pox. Now contact tracers are watching 200 people suspected of exposure. Btw, they determined close proximity with no mask for three full hours to be the determining factors for suspected exposure.

It is interesting to watch this all unfold. Scary, though.

[Celerity]

39. the US had a monkeypox outbreak from a Giant Gambian pouched rat that passed it to prairie dogs

who passed it to humans (this was in 2003)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambian_pouched_rat


2003 United States Outbreak of Monkeypox

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/outbreak.html

In 2003, the U.S. experienced an outbreak of monkeypox. This was the first time human monkeypox was reported outside of Africa.

How was monkeypox first diagnosed in the United States?
The clinical features of the illness in U.S. patients—fever, headache, muscle aches, and rash— were consistent with those of monkeypox. Initially, scientists at the Marshfield Clinic in Marshfield, Wisconsin, recovered a virus resembling a poxvirus from one of the first patients and the patient’s pet prairie dog. Laboratory tests at CDC—including several PCR-based assays looking for poxvirus DNA, electron microscopy, and gene sequencing—confirmed that the agent causing the illnesses was monkeypox virus.

Which states were affected by the outbreak?

Forty-seven confirmed and probable cases of monkeypox were reported from six states—Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin – during the 2003 U.S. outbreak.

How was monkeypox virus introduced into the U.S.?

Investigators determined that a shipment of animals from Ghana, imported to Texas on April 9, 2003, introduced monkeypox virus from the West African genetic group (clade) into the United States. The shipment contained approximately 800 small mammals representing nine different species, including six genera of African rodents. These rodents included rope squirrels (Funiscuirus sp.), tree squirrels (Heliosciurus sp.), African giant pouched rats (Cricetomys sp.), brush-tailed porcupines (Atherurus sp.), dormice (Graphiurus sp.), and striped mice (Lemniscomys sp.). CDC laboratory testing using PCR and virus isolation demonstrated that two African giant pouched rats, nine dormice, and three rope squirrels were infected with monkeypox virus. After importation into the United States some of the infected animals were housed in close proximity to prairie dogs at the facilities of an Illinois animal vendor. These prairie dogs were sold as pets prior to their developing signs of infection.

How was monkeypox virus transmitted to humans?

All people infected with monkeypox became ill after having contact with infected prairie dogs purchased as pets. A study conducted after the outbreak suggested that certain activities associated with animals were more likely to lead to monkeypox. These included touching a sick animal or receiving a bite or scratch that broke the skin. Another important factor was cleaning the cage or touching the bedding of a sick animal. No instances of monkeypox were attributed exclusively to person-to-person contact.

[SheltieLover]

42. Who the hell buys a prairie dog as a pet???

Ty for info!

[Celerity]

43. Prairie Dogs - Owning

https://vcahospitals.com/know-your-pet/prairie-dogs-owning

[wnylib]

58. The US is not even testing for

the type of variant when a patient tests positive for covid. So how are we getting figures on the % of delta cases?

[SheltieLover]

65. Not sure, Wyn.

[womanofthehills]

59. If the CDC refuses to report breakthroughs, more individual states need to do it like Massachusetts

I am going to start wearing my N59 again with a thin cloth mask over it.

More Than 5,100 Breakthrough COVID Cases Reported in Mass.; at Least 80 Have Died

More than 5,100 Massachusetts residents have tested positive for COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the virus, and at least 80 of them have died, state health officials said Tuesday night.

The latest update from the state Department of Public Health comes as coronavirus metrics continue to creep up in the Bay State while the more contagious Delta variant keeps spreading in the U.S.
The so-called breakthrough cases — where fully vaccinated individuals test positive for coronavirus — have so far been rare, but are possible. And should even be expected, per the CDC.

As of July 17, a total of 5,166 breakthrough cases had been reported to the state DPH. Of those, 272 people were hospitalized and survived. Of the 80 people who died, 23 died without being hospitalized; 57 died following a hospital stay.

The death toll reflects 1.54% of the 5,166 confirmed breakthrough cases and 0.0018% of the 4,307,361 Bay State residents fully vaccinated as of July 20. https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/more-than-5100-breakthrough-covid-cases-reported-in-mass-at-least-80-have-died/2435719/

[SheltieLover]

66. Good point!

Aren't you the person of high fashion covering N-95 with a cloth mask?

[GulfCoast66]

38. That has never been the goal because it may well be impossible.

If everyone were vaccinated and getting infected meant either no symptoms or those like a cold, we would be done with it.

And while I don’t discount this data, I studied science and understand our knowledge is always growing and we will never have all the answers. You can’t depend on any one study.

But it pretty clear that if vaccinated you are not going to die unless you already have other major issues. I’ve read reports from several states including here in Florida where Delta is spreading fast. Very few hospitalized vaccinated patients and really no deaths.

We now have a 2 tiered society. Those who believe in science and are safe and those who are still getting real sick.

[SheltieLover]

44. Oh I'm fully vaxed for months with Pfizer

And I agree about information and circumstances evolving! Absolutely.

I saw 1 article stating Johns Hopkins staff are calling for a review of this Israeli data. Who knows whether it sinply inconvenient to have the numbers known or if they have genuine concerns about the breakthrough numbers.

I'd say they should also pressure CDC to release reports on this same data!

To be quite honest, while I'm doing everything I can to not contract covid, if given a choice in the matter, I'd prefer death to living with horrible long haul. And I realize I might be unique in this perspective.

[GulfCoast66]

46. You've got to be you. If I chose differently that just human nature. No criticism from me.

Part of the challenge the CDC has is being dependent on the states to give accurate and timely reports.

Unlike nations with a federal healthcare system we don’t. The states cooperation is critical. I’m doubtful many are.

[SheltieLover]

47. 👍

How about this: any stare or facility/provider found not accurately reporting gets a mandatory life sentence upon conviction?

[GulfCoast66]

53. I like the spirit of the idea! But collecting actual data is hard.

I’ve done it.

When someone checks into the hospital with Covid do they actually check the data base to see if they are vaccinated? I doubt it. Hopefully I’m wrong. Hopefully someone on DU better at that stuff will check.

Because if I refused the vaccine and went to the hospital with Covid the temptation to lie would be strong. Claim I got it. Otherwise it’s a self own.

Data is tough to get.

One thing is clear. Get vaccinated and you won’t die from Covid.

[womanofthehills]

60. 89 vaccinated people died in Mass - out of 5,100 vaccinated who got Covid!!!

doesn't sound asymptomatic to me. Also, what I find alarming is that in 5 days the numbers of vaccinated people getting Covid jumped from 4000 to 5,160 in Mass.

[Sgent]

28. Not really

breakthrough infections that don't result in a hospital admission given the current situation are likely to lead to too much noise due to overtesting and overdiagnosis. As long as we have vaccinated people getting tested who have no symptoms we will have some amount of "breakthrough" that says nothing about sickness or infection.

[wnylib]

55. I see two problems as I read these studies.

One is that reports from the studies are not clear about definitions of mild and severe disease. They are also not clear regarding the percentages, e.g. how they might vary with age and underlying health conditions.

The discrepancy between the Israeli and British reports might be due to the timing of infections. Israel's population was fully vaccinated when the UK had only given out one shot and only to about half the people eligible. By the time the UK had given out second shots, Israelis had been fully vaccinated for a few months.

Then delta developed.

So maybe the discrepancy is due to the fact that Israelis have bern vaccinated long enough for the effectiveness to be diminishing while Brits are more recently fully vaccinated.

[Ms. Toad]

31. Thank you.

The first thing that struck me was:

The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.

Sorry - but I don't put much weight in a report that can't recite even such basics as how many people were included in the data.

Until more information is available I put this in the category of the early reports of generic blood clots with J&J, and the more recent myocarditis. Interesting enough to merit watching, and it may ultimately be prove. But for now, not enough information to do more than keep an eye on.

[GulfCoast66]

41. Thank you. People read about one study that seems sloppy and go nuts.

Until a significant hospitalized percentage is vaccinated I’m not worried. Right now it around 2% and even then most have other issues and almost no deaths.

If 85% of Americans were vaccinated this would be over.

[Ms. Toad]

45. I still think it is a serious threat - and I don't think hospitalized is the proper measure

for stepping up precautions. Until everyone can be vaccinated, at least, we should all be protecting ourselves and others - especially the 0-11 year olds - by using multiple layers of protection (vaccination, masking, minimizing time in crowed indoor spaces, social distancing) - but otherwise continuing to live our lives. (I've been teaching for close to a year in person - and will be up close and in person with 120 brand new students for 24 hours of class time starting on August 7. The world doesn't have to end in order to be safer.)

And I think that if 85% had been vaccinated a month ago it would be over. Unfortunately, now that Delta is entrenched, I suspect herd immunity will require closer to 95%. (Herd immunity is tied to how contagious the virus is - the Delta variant seems about as contagious as the measles, which requires 95%.)

I am just incredibly skeptical about a study that is so far off from anything else we've seen - especially when there isn't any verifiable data we can use to figure out why it is so far off - and which numbers are correct. I tend to believe the 88% effectiveness for mRNA vaccines against Delta. It's a good fit for the data I've seen anywhere but Israel.

[GulfCoast66]

50. Your post is a welcome reminder to me that my situation is not everyone's.

We have no kids. And while approaching 60 are in good shape. When Covid started I was Obese. But got to work and have lost 40 lbs. The wife has always been a skinny-Minnie.

Plus, unlike you our jobs don’t place us in a situation where we are forced to potentially be exposed just to do our jobs. Thanks for the primer.

And I agree with you in that everything I’ve read leads me to agree that the mRNA vaccines are above 80 effective even against Delta. It been out there long enough that we would have way more vaccinated people in the Hospital is it was only 39%. And keep in mind that was our ultimate goal, to prevent hospitalization and death.

I’m don’t agree we need 95% to get back to normal. Almost all the hospitalizations are in areas of the country that have under 50% vaccination. And even there, none are vaccinated. If we got to 80% spread evenly over the country I think it would be pretty much over.

But hell, we are all just making assumptions. Americans wants instant answers. And that not how science works. Until science has copious data it’s all conjecture!

Good discussion.

[Ms. Toad]

54. My only basis for bumping herd immunity to 95% is that it seems to be as infectious as measles.

So I did a little looking - it's too early to have a definitive R0 for the delta variant - but estimates put it at 8. Measles is 18 - so I was off in my comparison - mumps is 12 - and the Delta variant seems way more contagious than mumps (with which I have direct, pre-MMR vaccination experience). I had mumps all by myself - and my parents intentionally tried to infect my 4 siblings because my father had not had mumps (which are dangerous to adult males). That meant he had to move out of the house each time anyone had mumps. If my memory is correct, he had to move out 3 times before all 5 of us had had mumps.

But - if the estimated R0 turns out to be right, that would put herd immunity at around 88%. (Immune population needs to be greater than 1-1/R0)

The 80% seems to be based on the Alpha strain with an R0 of around 5. Delta seems significantly more infectious than just a bump from 5 to 8.

Time will tell - but probably too late to do anything to stop us reading a few hundred thousand cases a day, again.

[Celerity]

62. an r-nought of 8 (which Delta absolutely CAN be) makes herd immunity so hard to get to (88.75%)

is the simple calculation (which you seem to already know, which I already suspected was the case as you always are very good on COVID issues)


that means that given the current US population of 333,056,090 (and on-net rising daily, obviously) you can only have 37,468,810 non-exposed/non vaxxed to reach herd immunity for an r-nought of 8 disease

getting damn close to 300 million people exposed and/or vaxxed is going to be so tough given the levels of vax resistance throughout society, plus the under 12yo population (hopefully they soon get a infant to 12yo version(s) approved)

it can happen, but that number is only going to reached via actual infections added in (and we all need to truly hope there is not a paradigm-changing variant that pops up and gets to VOHC (Variant of High Consequence) status, which so far, none have

[Crunchy Frog]

10. Based on what I've been seeing and hearing,

this doesn't surprise me.

Can't wait till my box of N95s gets here.

[madville]

11. That would be the minimum I consider effective

Delta has 1000x the detectable virus or viral load as previous variants, that’s why it is so contagious. I wouldn’t assume simple cloth or surgical masks are offering any protection with Delta.

[SheltieLover]

24. Yup!

[StarryNite]

30. I don't think anything can be assumed at this point.

It's a very dynamic situation.

[SheltieLover]

48. Could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure testing shows viral load

I'm not a medical professional, but most tests do show such data.

Dr. Ding stated the viral load & shedding is 1,000 times more than previous variants & that this is what makes delta so contageous, even in open air settings.

[SheltieLover]

19. Glad you got some!

I ordrred 2 boxes.
With the high viral load (1,000 times more!) And resultant shedding, I np l9nger consider mt N-95's reusable.

Stay safe! 😷👍

[Meowmee]

35. We ordered tons

But with all the hospital stays, homecare and doc visits we go through then like crazy.

[SheltieLover]

36. Gad you got a good supply!

👍

[Meowmee]

22. I read that the part of the study

Which states vaccine efficacy drops off at 3 months and the over all percentage drop off is being questioned by many other researchers in Israel. So we need to wait and see on this imo. The good part is that Israel and the Uk are doing full appropriate research on bt infections while we are not.

We are still masking with kn95 and sd and have never stopped, that is the smartest, safest thing to do for everyone, (all fully vaxed with pfizer).

[SheltieLover]

34. I agree, Meowne!

All we can do is the best we can do & it soundsike you're doing it, as am I (2 Pfizers months ago) & N-95s.

I've not stopped masking & have no intention of doing so.

I'm glad Israel is doing this research! Someone needs to!

[Meowmee]

37. Yes, glad you are doing

Everything you can too 🤗 I don’t want to get covid ever again, even a mild case, ugh.

[SheltieLover]

40. Of course you don't!

I don't want a 1st case!

[Meowmee]

56. Hoping you never get it 💕

[Mr. Evil]

32. I like to keep things simple.

Fuck Israel.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

49. My son is in the Pfizer trial and has been asked to participate in booster study

Last edited Sat Jul 24, 2021, 08:56 AM - Edit history (1)

My son has a meeting next week with the study. I suspect that we will all be getting boosters

[womanofthehills]

61. Is he just getting a third shot as a booster or a booster for the Delta virus?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

68. He wants to know more about study

[BGBD]

63. It's endemic now

this was inevitable. The vaccine will give you a great chance to have a minor case of it though. However, it time to accept that you're going to catch it at some point, probably a few times. In time it'll be a background thing that you just live with and will mostly be a common cold level event. This is kind of how pandemics work. The 2009 flu still hits us every year and kills ~12k people. Nobody really thinks about it though.

If you've had your shots you should feel pretty good about your chances. What you shouldn't do if fret about every report that comes out with different information from day to day.

[madville]

64. I expect to get it at some point

If I haven’t already had it and just didn’t know it. We have 3 people at work out with it right now, I was in the same room with 2 of them 24 hours before they tested positive, both not vaccinated but I am. Hell I might have it right now and not know it!

It will be as common as a cold for the rest of our lives, probably have yearly booster shots as well.

[janterry]

67. exactly