Why we can be confident that the surge in coronavirus cases isn't the fault of immigrants

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Philip Bump
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One last end-of-day push: a detailed look at why the right-wing narrative that migrants are spurring the new surge in coronavirus cases is obviously not true.

Analysis | Why we can be confident that the surge in coronavirus cases isn’t the fault of immigrants
It's politically convenient to blame migrants for the coronavirus surge in the United States, but it's not defensible.
washingtonpost.com
1:37 PM · Aug 6, 2021

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/08/06/why-we-can-be-confident-that-surge-coronavirus-cases-isnt-fault-immigrants/

“I’m going to argue, you know, the high rate of covid positivity at that border — any American that is infected because Joe’s not enforcing the laws of this country, you can blame Joe Biden for covid,” Hannity said, claiming vaguely that migrants crossing the border are driving the current surge in coronavirus cases. “And if you die, I would put the blame on him, too. Why won’t they stop this superspreader event? Because it’s happening in the hundreds and hundreds of thousands.”

“Sean,” Cruz replied, “you’re exactly right.”

Sean was not exactly right. He was not even partially right. Nor was Cruz right when he started riffing on a Fox News report about 7,000 migrants in the city of McAllen, Tex., being released while coronavirus-positive.

“McAllen is a city, its population is about 140,000,” Cruz said. “That means 5 percent of the population of the city consists now of illegal immigrants who tested positive for covid that Joe Biden and Kamala D. Harris are just dumping there, one after the other after the other because they won’t enforce the law.”

Before I explain why, it’s worth considering why Hannity and Cruz are making the claim. There’s a long history of scapegoating immigrants as vectors for disease. Even before the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump’s insistent demand for a wall on the border often centered on the untrue claim that migrants posed a “tremendous medical problem,” as he put it in 2018, because of diseases they purportedly carried.

*snip*

[crickets]

1. Great article that blows away all of the lies.

Summing up, for those who can't get to WaPo articles:

The biggest contributing factor to outbreaks right now is politics. Highest numbers of cases are occurring in places which have little masking and low vaccination rates. What do these places have in common? Lots of Republicans. Fox is trying to both change the subject with racism, as well as find a way to blame Biden instead of themselves.

They do this by:

1. Misunderstanding the migration numbers

There are two types of detention, Title 8 and Title 42. Title 8 is the usual 'caught at the border and placed into detention' that most of us are familiar with. Title 42, implemented under the former guy, uses COVID as an excuse for expulsion, even for those seeking asylum.

https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/guide-title-42-expulsions-border

Numbers showing up at the border are high, but so are the numbers of those being immediately or nearly immediately turned away. Most being expelled are adults, and roughly 40% of those are repeats who've shown up at the border again within 12 months of first expulsion. More than 100,000 of the 170,000 who showed up at the border in June were turned away. The majority of those who are allowed to stay remain in custody of federal, state, or local officials. Only about 11% are allowed "humanitarian release" with notice for hearings within six months.

2. Misunderstanding how migrants are released

Incoming migrants (given the numbers not always, but usually) are given masks and dropped off by CPB at local testing centers in places such as McAllen, TX. Those who test negative go to respite centers where staff helps coordinate travel, often to where other family is already living. Those who test positive are not released but given a hotel room to quarantine. They go on their way after recovery and/or negative test results. It's thought that migrants may be the most tested population in the country, which is why 1,500 positives a week sounds so high in comparison to the rest of the US. Many are asymptomatic, and therefore as part of the general US population likely would never have been tested. Huge numbers of passenger cars and trucks are legally crossing the Mexican border all the time with no one testing their occupants at all.

In June, there were 8.3 million passengers in personal vehicles who crossed the border from Mexico into the United States. There were 1.1 million trucks and 2.2 million pedestrians. And then there were about 34,000 apprehended migrants who were released from CBP custody and, often, tested for the coronavirus.

Which seems like a more likely conduit for new coronavirus infections?

Indeed.

3. Misunderstanding where the pandemic is surging

All it takes is a quick look at a map. COVID surge locations are not overlapping with where migrants eventually land. Migrants are choosing to go to places where they can stay with friends or family, not being sent to government chosen destinations. The surge is not along the Mexican border, but in the South. The places with the highest case numbers have a predominantly white population, not Hispanic.

Migrants are callously being used as a political scapegoat to deflect the blame from the unvaccinated, shifting that blame to Biden and migrants from Mexico. Ted Cruz, Sean Hannity, and Fox: big ol' racist liars.

THE END.