What do you foresee as the future of Afghanistan?

[kentuck]

Where will they be one month from now or one year from now?

None of us can predict the future but the past is prologue. We could expect the Taliban to do much what they have done in the past.

Will they attack the Americans before they leave Afghanistan? That would seem like a very foolish move.

Will they be able to form a functioning government? Or will they compromise and form some sort of coalition government, in order to receive IMF and foreign aid? Will they adhere to their agreements?

Or will they break down into civil war amongst their tribes, creating millions of refugees in the process? It is all unpredictable.

Will the US maintain any diplomatic relations with the Taliban government? Will they keep their Embassy open for further evacuations?

Or with the presence of the Americans for the last twenty years, have they moved more into the 21st century? Will they moderate any at all on their deeply held Sharia beliefs? Will they continue to treat women as they did in the past? Will they continue to chop off the hands of thieves and common criminals?

There are many questions left as Joe Biden attempts to wean them off the American teat.

[underpants]

1. Dirt rocks and tribal turf wars

Same old same old.

[ansible]

2. Best case scenario - China bringing it under their control

They want those trillion dollar minerals

[sarisataka]

5. I had thought

We already had stolen them.

[ansible]

10. Taliban have always controlled the mountains, we could never set up mining operations there

But the chinese can, with the infrastructure 20 years of american taxpayer money has built up they can easily start setting up mining operations right now under Taliban approval.

[dalton99a]

3. Sharia rule, as interpreted by one guy who is still in hiding

[wyn borkins]

4. Militants-R-Them

I doubt there is OR ever will be any form of (actual) government; they (the militants) will simply do whatever the militant with the most funds asks them to do.

[Treefrog]

6. The Dark Ages.

Revisited.

[Binkie The Clown]

7. The entire region will become uninhabitable due to climate change. nt

[lindysalsagal]

8. Anyone with half a brain will try to leave.

The remainder will continue as a 3rd-world museum of living history, with half the population enslaved (the females.)

The population is roughly the same as california. They must depend on neighboring countries for water, so, I wonder if other muslim countries will ever use that leverage to modulate taliban extremism. Probably too much to hope for, it's so corrupt.

[Scrivener7]

9. The same as its past.

[haele]

11. Rough start, but they'll probably end up similar to Iraq.

However, it will be under Chinese and Russian influence, with some "governance guidance" from the Saudis and UAE.

Taliban an the tribes have just transferred control of the land and cities from one foreign entity to another.

China and Russia will probably commence to pitch Iran and Afghanistan against each other to keep their high hand influence over both within a year or two. Sunni and Shia, extremists and moderate sects, you know.

Damn the Brits and their silly 20th century mapping of the region.

Haele

[Jilly_in_VA]

12. Reversion

Waziristan in part of it as it reverts to tribal control. Iran, of sorts, only less educated, in the rest.

[Pobeka]

13. Apparently loads of lithium, a govt that doesn't care for its citizens, deals with China.

If the lithium thing is really true, I think it's obvious where this is going.

[Klaralven]

14. In a month, they'll be recognized by most of the members of the OIC, Russia, China & several others

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation has 57 member nations with a population over 1.8 billion. 49 are Muslim majority.

I'd expect that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey and Iran will be quick to recognize.