Andrew Sullivan: Two Men Falling

[ARandomPerson]

I realize Andrew Sullivan is not popular around here, but I found this piece thoughtful.

Two Men Falling

The closing paragraphs:

This isn’t easy. But geopolitics never is. It requires terrible moral choices. It demands serious acceptance of the costs of failure — not this jumped-up media hysteria. It requires taking responsibility ourselves, and not hounding the one man who actually took it, with all its political costs.

I mean: how many of us were closely following developments in Afghanistan this spring? How many read any stories about the place? How many segments did CNN devote to Afghanistan in June and July? And how many of us who cheered the original invasion have been able to acknowledge candidly how deeply wrong we were since, and retain a modicum of humility and shame as we watch the inevitable end of our own hubristic dreams?

Not many. But then we are not a very grown-up country these days. Mercifully, we have a president who is. Who did the right thing, when others refused to. And who is mercifully not backing down.

Boldface mine

[Ocelot II]

1. He makes some good points, worth thinking about.

There was never going to be a good outcome. We went into Afghanistan after 9/11 ostensibly to catch bin Laden and weaken al-Qaeda. Once that had happened (OBL wasn't even in Afghanistan) we should have left, if not sooner, instead of staying in to try to fix a country that isn't even a real country but a loose collection of tribes that don't like each other. But Afghanistan is in the middle of an important geopolitical region, among China, Russia and the Middle East; and the hegemons in our government thought we needed to stay there and try to control what happened in the region. This led to a terrible and impossible dilemma: The only ways to "fix" Afghanistan, especially wrt the rights of women, would be to stay indefinitely, probably forever, or to eliminate the Taliban. Neither thing was or could ever be possible. We got stuck - couldn't leave without dire consequences but couldn't stay either. I keep thinking, though, about what John Kerry once said about Vietnam: How do you ask someone to be the last man to die for a mistake?

[Dave says]

6. Yeah, me too

Vietnam, another war we lost, came to mind as soon as I saw the problems at the Kabul airport.

[tulipsandroses]

2. Might be the first time I have agreed with him

He’s exactly right.

[WarGamer]

3. Some in the media are confusing TWO different things.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan is supported by the VAST majority of Americans. It's good.

The way the withdrawal turned into a chaotic evacuation is subject to criticism.

The two are not mutually exclusive.

[elevator]

7. The population of the world is going to have to decline, along with capitalism.

With fewer people and many less jobs the world is going to be a very different place in thirty-forty years or so. Universal income, healthcare and housing will be the norm. If we face no epic catastrophe. Of course, disclosure regarding aliens may be a gamechanger in unexpected ways.

[Celerity]

10. Researchers Say Earth Is Headed for "Jaw-Dropping" Population Decline

"It's extraordinary, we'll have to reorganize societies."

https://futurism.com/global-birth-rates-falling-precipitiously?ref=thefuturist

People around the globe are having way fewer babies. By the year 2100, that might turn into a pretty big problem for humanity — rather than the relief one might expect. If they aren’t already, dozens of countries’ populations will be going into decline in this century, according to a new study published in the Lancet this week. 23 countries are expected to feel this effect intensify, with their populations dropping to half of what they are now by the year 2100.

The global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, according to the new projection, and then drop off to 8.8 billion towards the end of the century. “That’s a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline,” Christopher Murray, co-author and researcher at the University of Washington, Seattle, told the BBC. “I think it’s incredibly hard to think this through and recognize how big a thing this is; it’s extraordinary, we’ll have to reorganize societies.”

The reality is that with more women receiving an education and entering the work force, combined with the wide availability of contraception, fertility rates are dropping, sometimes precipitously, around the world — a stark reversal of the baby boom following the Second World War. Countries including Spain, Portugal, and Thailand will have their populations more than halve by the end of the century — “jaw-dropping,” according to Murray.

But aren’t fewer humans better for a ravished world that’s rapidly being drained of its resources? The researchers suggest that there may be fewer babies being born, but any positive consequences for the environment would be offset by the challenges of a rapidly aging population. Much older populations “will create enormous social change,” Murray told the BBC. “Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?” “We need a soft landing,” he added.

snip


Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

https://tinyurl.com/ybadb2q7

snip

Findings

The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33–2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100.

The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were

India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71],

Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]),

China (732 million [456–1499]),

the USA (336 million [248–456]),

and Pakistan (248 million [151–427]).

Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91–2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11–2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR

[elevator]

12. My point exactly. Seniors will have to receive al the things I mentioned.

But, so will a large proportion of the entire population. The big problem will be in the third world where with few resources chaos will ensue.

[calimary]

15. I find that strangely comforting.

Planet Earth CANNOT sustain reckless human overpopulation. Especially as habitable land and temperate zones shrink.

[Escurumbele]

17. It doesn't have to be that way, but human stupidity will take care that it does happen as you say.

That is why I always recommend "The Cat's Cradle" by Kurt Vonnegut, it perfectly describes human stupidity in a most simple and entertaining story.

[treestar]

8. How could it be other than chaotic?

They are acting like, and some are falling for, the idea it could be a precise ball dance.

And picking out images selectively to make it look as dramatic as possible.

[2naSalit]

4. K&R

[elevator]

5. Sullivan is a smart guy, who tells the truth. I don't always agree with him,

but he usually makes a good case for his point. Lawrence O'Donnell has been spot on about the withdrawal all week.....nobody can name an orderly withdrawal from a losing war. It just doesn't happen.

[treestar]

9. +1

The idea that it is "bungled" is absurd. It's an invention of MSM to make it seem like something is awfully wrong so they can get more eyes.

[Hekate]

11. Andrew Sullivan's take on the little-known candidate Obama in 2008 amused me greatly...

Sullivan saw Obama as a personification of the Roadrunner outwitting Wile E. Coyote at every turn. How did he do that? Meep-meep! I can’t remember all Sullivan’s examples, but they were spot on and wittily presented.

I was very worried in 2008, and Sullivan’s wit helped me bear the anxiety.

But you are right— he seemed to irritate a portion of DU, who thought he was a Libertarian or gods forbid, a Republican. Anyway, he’s been gone.

[marble falls]

13. Nice little piece, thanks for posting.

[mountain grammy]

14. He's insufferable

but often right and he’s right about this.

[Paladin]

16. Nice offset to Marjorie Taylor Greene calling Biden "a piece of shit" today.

Saw it on the Drudge Report just now. Feel like I need a shower.

[hadEnuf]

18. That skank needs to be dropped right into the middle of Taliban headquarters in a mini skirt.