Albuquerque Journal - 19% of new cases are vaccinated

[womanofthehills]

SANTA FE – The more contagious COVID-19 variant flooding New Mexico is reaching vaccinated residents, not just the unvaccinated.

In fact, fully vaccinated individuals made up 19% of new COVID-19 infections and 13% of hospitalizations in a recent four-week period, according to a Journal analysis of state data……

• People not fully vaccinated made up about 87% of COVID-19 hospitalizations, or 644 of 742 hospitalized patients. (An internal estimate by the state put the figure at 86%, Morgan said.)

• Fully vaccinated individuals made up 13% of the COVID-19 hospitalizations.

Morgan said the state compiled similar figures for the last month, but he warned that the percentages could change as more information comes in. https://www.abqjournal.com/2421352/19-of-nms-new-virus-cases-were-vaccinated.html?amp=1

[LisaL]

1. Not surprising.

Israel saw increases in infections and hospitalization of vaccinated people with delta.
Vaccines were not designed or tested against delta.
So they are not as effective as shown in clinical trials against the original virus or alpha.

[Tomconroy]

2. It stands to reason that a vaccine that is maybe 90 percent effective is

Still going to allow for a lot of breakthrough cases. I don't understand why the CDC keeps saying they will be rare.

[LisaL]

3. It's less than 90% effective against delta.

The best study out of UK had Pfizer at 88% effective, but UK was giving Pfizer to those under 40. Younger people have better immunity.
Israel's data showed as low as 39%.
It also drops with time.
You are still mostly protected against severe disease and hospitalization, though. But also not at a 100%.

[Tomconroy]

5. It's highly effective. Somewhere in 80 to 95 percent ballpark probably.

'Highly effective' was the conclusion of the UK study.

[left-of-center2012]

4. The man who delivers my prescriptions has not been vaccinated

I am in Albuquerque.

I don't understand how a pharmacy can have a delivery person who refuses to be vaccinated.
He's a young man in his mid-20s who tells me he's just waiting to see what happens before committing to being vaccinated.

Says neither he nor his wife fully believe all the hype about the pandemic.

[Maru Kitteh]

23. switch your pharmacy or tell them vaxed delivery people only

[kentuck]

6. Could it be?

That people that have been vaccinated are more hesitant to go to the hospital, because they believe they are more protected than they actually are? Conversely, people that have not been vaccinated would be quicker to get to a hospital?

[LisaL]

8. I doubt it.

Vaccinated people are more concerned about covid than un-vaccinated.

[uponit7771]

7. Looks inline ... Any comorbidities associated with the 19%? tia

[RockRaven]

9. New Mexico is about 60% fully vaccinated. If there were no difference between being vaxxed

and being unvaxxed, for every 1 unvaxxed person in the hospital there would be 1.5 vaxxed people. Instead, for every 1 unvaxxed person there are 0.15 vaxxed people. A tenfold difference.

(For the above, "vaxxed" = fully vaxxed, and "unvaxxed" = not fully vaxxed i.e. includes partially and not vaxxed)

Being fully vaxxed is a helluva good thing for keeping out of the hospital.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

12. I like what you're getting at here ... but to get really accurate

we also need a breakdown of the ages of people in the hospital, and the vaccination rates of the age cohorts.

If 80% of people over 65 are vaccinated, and 80% of people in the hospital are over 65 (for example) it could result in fairly significant difference vs. a straight 60% calculation.

My napkin based calculations come up with something around 25-fold vs. 10-fold ... since then you're expecting 4 vaccinated persons per 1 unvaxxed in the population instead of 1.5

[iemanja]

13. the article doesn't claim there is no difference, obviously

It says 19% of new cases are among the vaccinated and 13% of hospitalizations. That is not no difference, or it would be closer to 50-50. It is nonetheless high. Clearly the vaccines are not as effective against Delta as the earlier COVID virus.

[RockRaven]

22. You understand that I included that line as a comparison, not because it has anything directly

to do with the article, right? The factoids in the article lack context to make them useful for understanding what is happening or what one ought to do.

19% of the hospitalized patients had some vaccine... Okay... Is that good or bad? Is that high or low? Is that reassuring or scary? One can know by looking at relative rates or their proxies.

If only 1% of the population had gotten any vaccine then 19% would be terrible. If 99% of the population had been fully vaccinated it would be insanely awesome.

So a useful first glance comparison is: what should we see if there's no effect from the vaccine? Well, the hospital population ought to be similar to the general population in that case, i.e. 60% fully vaxxed. And it is not. That was the point of that line.

Okay, it is different from the general population, and what does that mean? It means relative to unvaxxed people, vaxxed people stay out of the hospital. By a lot. The 3/5 of the population who are fully vaxxed make up 1/8 of the hospitalizations, whereas the 2/5 who are not make up 7/8. The vaccines have room for improvement but they're working well.

Which is a hugely different take away than the clickbait headline of an absolute measurement of vaccinated individuals amongst the hospitalized population presented without appropriate context.

[iemanja]

24. Fair enough

but it's also true that the vaccine gives less protection against Delta than against the original virus.

[lagomorph777]

27. And the OP has a pattern of picking out these deceptive clickbait stories.

Very peculiar, to say the least.

[lagomorph777]

26. The OP has a pattern of posting a distorted view of very positive statistics.

Thanks for the more accurate perpsective.

Seems the antivax agenda is alive and well here.

[patphil]

10. I think we may be going into a situation similar the yearly flu vaccine.

The Covid style virus may be with us a long time. As a result, we will probably have to have booster shots each year. And as the virus mutates, current vaccines will have to be modified to maintain immunity.
I'm sure Pfizer and Moderna are looking into the delta variant, and also the theta variant. They need to keep their vaccine current to maintain their status as the leading providers of covid vaccines.
Even with booster shots, and modified vaccines, some years may have high infection, and possibly high fatality rates, and other years may be very low.
Eventually the anti-vaxers will run head on into a variant that will take them down hard. But, we can't afford to wait around for each new variant to rage through the population as the anti-vaxers continual to play the denial game.
We'll have to play hardball with them as regards to employment and the cost of treating their illness. I think a strong hit to their pocketbooks is the only way to get them to take the responsible path.
Right now they want the freedom to choose not to be responsible, while expecting the medical system to fix them for little or no cost to them.

In a Democracy, there is always a balance between freedom and responsibility. During good time, freedom is the more desirable path. But when things get rough, like in a pandemic, freedom must give way to responsibility.

Right now, with the latest surge, it looks like a lot of anti-vaxers are taking the freedumb path. They demonstrate their freedom by being stone cold dumb.

Freedumb is a personal choice to be a self-absorbed jerk.
Freedumb is putting everyone around you at risk by refusing to be a responsible adult.
Freedumb is never having to say you care.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. Nearly 60% Of NM Is Fully Vaxxed

Over 68% at least one shot.
Those numbers make it quite clear that the vaccines are greatly holding off infections and hospitalizations.
A thought to consider:
What would the % of breakthrough cases be (out of the total cases) if NM were 100% vaccinated?

[Ms. Toad]

16. Umm . . . 100%. n/t

[ProfessorGAC]

19. I Was Making...

...a mathematical point.
19% of cases, absent other information is not informative.
That was my point! And if there was ONE case, it would still be 100%. This headline means very little.

Using somewhat realistic numbers:
10,000 New Mexicans is 6,800 vaxxed, 3,200 not.
Now, let's say 200 new cases are detected in that 10,000.
38 are vaxxed. Out of 6,800, or about 0.57%.
162 are not. Out of 3,200. More than 5%.
The denominator doesn't matter. The odds of getting infected if unvaxxed remains around 8.5 times that of those vaxxed.
Should we monitor breakthroughs? Of course.
Should we act like this 19% is bad news? No.

[Ms. Toad]

20. Just completing the thought, since I'm pretty sure

it would have gone over the heads of most of the folks here (from having tried in vain to explain COVID math to a number of folks).

I would only add that not only should we monitor, we also need for people who are vaccinated to wear masks indoors, to assume symptoms that might be a cold are actually COVID (and test).

You are far more likely to be asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms if you are vaccinated - and when those of us who are vaccinated act as if we can't possibly have COVID, we become the COVID version of typhoid Mary.

Fortunately, my co-worker who thought she had a cold is a rule-follower. She had COVID and, but for her natural inclination to follow the rules would have exposed the entire incoming class at our school. (She was so convinced that it was a cold that she announced via zoom to the class that she had a cold, but was told she was not allowed to come back until she tested negative.)

[Elessar Zappa]

14. So have you received the vaccine, OP?

[Ms. Toad]

17. reporting accurate (and expected) information should not trigger

challenges that the OP discourages (or hasn't been) vaccinated.

Way too many vaccinated individuals need to understand that vaccination is not a magic shield - and that layers of proteciton are needed ** at least** in the name of public health (even if you would personally prefer to take risks rather than wearing a mask).

[LanternWaste]

18. Both context and nuance allow us additional information

It's not a trigger nor a challenge... merely a desire to allow ourselves ALL relevant information. Thankfully, no on DU believes or pretends vaccines are magical.

[Ms. Toad]

30. You're not reading carefully if you believe your last sentence is true. n/t

[lagomorph777]

28. Technically accurate numbers presented in a deliberately deceptive way.

Stripping away context and understanding, in order to make a point. You and OP seem to be pushing an agenda.

[Ms. Toad]

31. My only agenda is to get people who are vaccinated to realize

that unless they take precautions beyond vaccination, (1) they are personally at risk and (2) are contributing to the current surge and to the development of variants.

There is little chance I can reach the Trump followers. But progressives should know better, but are at least acting as if they don't.

[lagomorph777]

32. The way you and WOTH are presenting it comes across as deceptive and antivax.

Best find another way to do it, if you really mean what you just said. You're pissing people off.

[Ms. Toad]

37. Nonsense. You are actively misleading people with the data you cite -

which overestimates the effectiveness of the vaccine, and encourages people to believe that taking any steps beyond vaccination is unnecessary.

My information is accurate, and always provided in context - unlike the information you and others provide - which is based on a snapshot in time, before the delta variant was prevalent, when mitigation was in effect, and when rates were relatively low. Providing that information without context, and implying that the past number is predictive of the future gives people who are vaccinated a false sense of security, and those who act on that contribute to the surge and to the development of variants.

I spent several hours Friday and over the weekend assisting in contract tracing triggered by a vaccinated jerk who decided masks weren't important, exposed 90 of his potential classmates, keeping two of them from starting school when he lied to the contract tracers about whether he was in close contact with anyone - delaying them from communicating with those he exposed (and preventing it entirely as to the 88 whose names I could not provide to the contact tracer who turned to me when the jerk refused to respond). One of those he exposed went home to a funeral and exposed her entire extended family. That was my second of three exposures within a week to individuals who were vaccinated and COVID positive. Fortunately the first was intelligent enough to stay home so my exposure was via zoom, and the third inadvertenty disclosed her status so I was able to immediately leave the area.

I have no more patience for people who minimize the risk posed by COVID to everyone, including those who are vaccinated than I do for people who insist COVID is a hoax. Both elevate politics over public health.

[lagomorph777]

40. I haven't been citing different data, only looking at what you and WOTH are posting.

I make no claim that vaccines are magical; I do claim that all the data supports the fact that everybody should get vaccinated. Recent data also supports the claim that we should all mask, even if vaccinated. I am vaccinated, and I wear a mask, face shield, and gloves any time I go to a store. I disinfect everything that comes inside my house.

I am only asking for a bit of balance, because a series of posts that use biased interpretations of the data to give the impression that vaccines are worthless, is likely to get people killed.

I have no more patience for people who minimize the utility of basic pandemic hygiene, to include vaccinations and masks.

[Ms. Toad]

15. Without doing a deep dive into the data - this isn't a surprise.

New Mexico is abou 60% vaccinated. The vaccines range from 40% to 80% effective against Delta, so a substantial number of vaccinated individuals (in the range of 20% or higher) is absolutely predictable.

[Scrivener7]

21. And what percent of the dead? Please don't mess with Covid.

Take care of yourself.

[greenjar_01]

25. 87% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated

That's the story, despite what this person posting non-stop anti-vax nonsense wants you to believe.

[lagomorph777]

29. +1000 At least one other poster in this thread seems to be a consistent antivaxxer too.

Merchants of death.

[Ms. Toad]

33. Recognizing that vaccines have limitations -

and encouraging vaccinated people to take additional precautions is not being anti-vaccination. It is pro-public health.

I was vaccinated two days after my group was eligible, and I will have a booster in November, 8 months after my second dose. Put up or shut up: Please link to a single post in which I discouraged anyone from being vaccinated against COVID.

Unlike you, and a few others, however I don't believe vaccinations are magic and I am responsible enough to take additional steps to protect myself and others (and to encourage others to do so as well). Just like I still fasten my seatbelt, even though I have an air bag. The air bag is good, but incomplete. So are vaccines.

[lagomorph777]

35. Nobody says vaccinations are magic. You're posting distortions to make them appear useless.

If you want to make the case that you claim you want to make, knock off the distortions and present balanced analysis.

[Ms. Toad]

38. Mine is always balanced and in context.

I have never seen anything other than distortion of snapshot-in-time data from you, and a handful of others, as to the effectiveness of the COVID vaccines.

[NickB79]

36. Your advice is good advice

But at the same time, a lot of us have observed the OP posting antivax statements for YEARS.

She's been a big fan of using VAERS to mislead on vaccination side effects going back to the MMR-autism controversy.

[NickB79]

34. Yeah, about that 13% of hospitalizations being vaccinated

In LA, they saw similar numbers, BUT there's this twist:

Hospitalization numbers have been steadily rising for more than a month, but Ferrer noted today that between April and mid-August, roughly 25% of the Covid-positive patients in L.A. were actually hospitalized for a reason other than the coronavirus. Their infection was detected only during a routine admission screening.

https://deadline.com/2021/08/los-angeles-breakthrough-infections-covid-amount-cases-1234818477/

So the 13% of vaccinated people hospitalized doesn't necessarily translate into 13% of vaccinated people hospitalized for Covid. For example, you get in a car crash while having an asymptomatic case, and suddenly you're part of that 13% even though you have no symptoms of Covid.

[Captain Stern]

39. Looks like the vaccine is working.

Maybe not as well as we'd all like, but it's obviously making a significant positive difference.

[marie999]

41. How do they know how many vaccinated people have gotten the virus

since many people vaccinated who have gotten the virus have little or no symptoms?