Intelligence Smokescreen

[WHITT]

Rep. Adam Schiff after a classified briefing by the intelligence agencies to his committee:

The intelligence agencies' assessments of the Afghan government's ability to maintain itself became increasingly pessimistic over the course of the last six months. And there were any number of warnings that the Taliban might take over, and some that included a potential of a very rapid, the Afghan government enforces.

https://www.rawstory.com/adam-schiff-afghanistan-withdrawl-briefing/

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The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs is the highest position in the U.S. military. The only positions above him are the civilian command, namely the Secretary of Defense and the POTUS. He basically receives the same intelligence the POTUS does, other than 'Eyes Only', which I don't see as being relevant here.

Here's General Milley:

There was nothing that I or anyone else saw that indicated a collapse of this army and this government in 11 days. Central Command submitted a variety of plans that were briefed and approved by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Secretary of Defense, and the President. These plans are coordinated, synchronized, and rehearsed to deal with these various scenarios. One of those contingencies is what we are executing right now.

This looks to me like your standard backpedal and cover-your-ass operation by the intelligence agencies. I'd say the intelligence agencies are lying to Schiff and the other members of his committee.

[The Magistrate]

1. Lying Is Hardly Necessary, Sir

There is always a range of possibilities offered to the upper echelon, and those which are pessimistic are often ignored, particularly by people in whom a 'can-do' spirit has been instilled.

[WHITT]

3. According To Milley

the worst-case scenario presented was the Afghan army collapses in a number of weeks, AFTER we are long gone. Missed by a mile.

The point, is that Biden constructed his plans based upon what the intelligence agencies and the U.S. military presented to him.

[andym]

2. The rapid collapse of the Afghanistan army was predicated by fear and despair

With the idea that the US wasn't behind them, the Afgan army seems to have believed theirs was a lost cause. It's very difficult to predict their such effects, although a similar fear engulfed Saddam Hussein's troops when fighting and surrendering to the US in the second Gulf/Iraq War.

[moondust]

4. Either way,

I can't imagine that anybody knew how many Afghan civilians would be desperate to escape the Taliban and on short notice rush the airport with their families, creating the chaotic TV images some opportunists naturally want to blame on Biden. Sky News reported a little while ago that the crowds waiting there to be admitted know a deadline is coming and are getting anxious.

Clint Watts earlier suggested that there may be some ongoing land evacuations into bordering countries.