General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums*****BREAKING***** 57% of California voters plan to vote against Republican led recall
Link to tweet
Elessar Zappa
(14,087 posts)Send in those ballots, California Dems!
Polly Hennessey
(6,811 posts)JohnSJ
(92,454 posts)ColinC
(8,340 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Returned Ballots So Far
58% Democrats
22% Indys
21% Reps.
Based on polling 80-85% of Democrats, 40% of Indys, and 10% of Republicans are voting against the recall. If they stopped counting today No is between 58-60%.
JohnSJ
(92,454 posts)ailsagirl
(22,899 posts)More_Cowbell
(2,191 posts)So they know how many Democrats and Republicans have returned ballots.
ailsagirl
(22,899 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)However they update the number of ballots returned by registration every day. I took those numbers and matched them to polls.
ailsagirl
(22,899 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,743 posts)roamer65
(36,747 posts)Now is the time for a ballot prop to change the recall process.
ace3csusm
(969 posts)This cost us CA residents millions for what...and the whole idea that 50.1% is needed stay...change this NOW...
Jim__
(14,089 posts)Demovictory9
(32,482 posts)#!$@ larry elder
Vinca
(50,318 posts)sense if 49% could vote to not recall the governor which would trigger his ouster and the highest point getter of the losers running against him to get the job. They might have a lousy 15% of the vote. 49% loses, 15% wins. What a stupid, stupid provision in the California constitution.
Retired Engineer Bob
(759 posts)RockRaven
(15,035 posts)PLEASE.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Keep GOTV, CA! I love ya!
Cha
(297,809 posts)Retired Engineer Bob
(759 posts)Grokenstein
(5,727 posts)We've been through this nonsense before, and we know what's at stake this time.
BigmanPigman
(51,642 posts)NoMoreRepugs
(9,481 posts)be replaced, well, u can do the math.
Auggie
(31,207 posts)chowder66
(9,087 posts)I sent my on August 17th and have been watching for an update from ballotrax but nothing as of yet.
budkin
(6,722 posts)budkin
(6,722 posts)Diane Feinstein is ancient And the governor would get to choose a replacement for her
aggiesal
(8,937 posts)I've already turned in my "NO" ballot at the ROV in SD.
Get out and vote. The earlier the better.
cally
(21,597 posts)BlueCheeseAgain
(1,654 posts)Nonetheless, early returns show Dems returning ballots at a fast clip.
Moebym
(989 posts)If you recall your governor and replace him with that bozo, I will not visit your state again until you correct your error.
California Kid
(24 posts)kimbutgar
(21,224 posts)These polls make people feel like its ok if I dont vote Newsom cant be recalled. NO
Vote no and drop off your ballot. I dont trust the USPS under Dejoy it comes to ballots. I am waiting for our son to come home and well drive down to the department of elections and drop off our ballots for our family.
bucolic_frolic
(43,364 posts)you believe those polled will vote, don't lie to pollsters, and are a representative sample of what will actually occur on recall election day, and if you believe this poll result doesn't motivate those losing and diminish the resolve of those winning in the poll.
So I say all those things interplay and 7% has historically been within the margin of the GOP making most elections very close, althought don't extend any insight here for any experience monitoring or seeing results from California elections.
IronLionZion
(45,563 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Those polls you cited are considerably older and don't capture Newsom's ads and the CA Denocratic machine turning out its voters
IronLionZion
(45,563 posts)Dems don't always turn out for these things as much as the other side
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Tommy Carcetti
(43,219 posts)Just curious.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)NullTuples
(6,017 posts)It's a broken system.
It's been in place for a hundred years and here's the best part: nobody knows how, precisely, it became law. Oh, they know the general story about "progressives" but not who submitted those specific details of the mechanism, or why.
Time to modernize it.
bluestarone
(17,067 posts)WE NEED YOU!!!! DO NOT let the rethugs get away with anything here!!
UTUSN
(70,762 posts)NullTuples
(6,017 posts)Ballot envelopes are on the entranceway table, for whichever of us ventures out masked & keeping our distance into the world first.
SpankMe
(2,970 posts)Polls have been very inaccurate over the last couple of national and local elections.
Plus, I'd have hoped for numbers closer to 68% No, 28% Yes and 4% undecided. I can't believe that anyone outside of the bottom-feeding Republican contingent would even consider a recall.
LiberalFighter
(51,170 posts)nycbos
(6,039 posts)DSandra
(999 posts)By disgruntled business owners who care more about themselves than about spreading COVID. Governors should not be punished for making hard, brave choices when there are no possible choices that dont hurt anyone.
ailsagirl
(22,899 posts)ailsagirl
(22,899 posts)Frankly, I'm surprised that 42% support it... WTH??
mountain grammy
(26,659 posts)42% are batshit crazy and they must be outvoted!
The Unmitigated Gall
(3,836 posts)FU Larry, FU Caitlyn.
That is all.
summer_in_TX
(2,764 posts)Polling has had some big fails lately.
Keep that full court press, California Dems! I'm rooting for you!
Sympthsical
(9,132 posts)That's one of those questions in statistics that can give an unreliable result due to "social acceptance" bias.
People will say they voted when they didn't. They'll say they will when they have no intention.
We saw a lot of this in Trump polling. People just didn't want to admit they were voting for the guy.
The methodology is also a self-selected sample via social media ads funneled through survey monkey, which is its own whole set of statistical bias problems.
I'm (very) cautiously optimistic about the recall lately. Already sent in our "no" votes here. But, I am nowhere near comfortable. Glancing at this outlier and how they came to these numbers doesn't make me feel any better.
Think they wanted some headlines.