Latest Polls Of The California Recall Election

[California Kid]

Keep 50.6%
Remove 46.3

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/

I can't believe that it's this close.

[Wounded Bear]

1. "I can't believe that it's this close." - too many people sitting it out...nt

[JohnSJ]

8. I don't buy that. Every registered voter gets a postage paid mail in ballot. I am skeptical of the

assumptions being made by many of these pollsters

So far the ballots returned are two to one in favor of Democrats

There are two weeks to go

[PortTack]

16. Totally agree! I will never look at a poll again without a great deal of skepticism

The last 3 election cycles have proven they are no longer making good predictions

[quaint]

76. In-person dropoff available starting September 4 in Orange County, other counties differ.

Last edited Wed Sep 1, 2021, 09:47 AM - Edit history (2)

Many people require assistance, others prefer in-person voting. Some believe there are reasons not to mail.

From CA SOS:
One or more early voting locations will be available in all counties for at least four days beginning the Saturday before the September 14, 2021, election. Voting locations will offer voter registration, replacement ballots, accessible voting machines, and language assistance.

[myccrider]

78. We used a drop box around Aug 20, here in the OC. n/t

[quaint]

79. Thank you.

Correction of dropboxes to in-person dropoff, apologies, brain and fingers out of sync.

[myccrider]

80. No worries.

We’ve all been there.

[California Kid]

12. There is really no need to sit it out. Every eligible voter in CA was mailed a ballot.

All that they have to do is mark a few boxes, sign it, put into the return envelope and mail it.

No postage required..

Very easy

[littlemissmartypants]

45. Welcome to DU, California Kid. ❤ nt

[Wounded Bear]

50. We have all mail in voting in WA, have had it for many years...

turnout is often disappointing anyway, especially for these special elections.

I hope I'm wrong, because low turnout would be the only way that the recall succeeds.

[Hekate]

2. Believe it. Republicans can no longer win without cheating, and this is a cheat with a ton of money

…behind it.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

62. how can this ballot be considered Constitutional?

A choice between 46 candidates. And none of them Newsom. He should be allowed to run against the person emerging from that pile. And probably will next year, one way or the other.

[Hekate]

63. It's Constitutional in the California Constitution.My gripe is I think it's being grossly misused nt

[SleeplessinSoCal]

64. Exploiting loopholes is something Democrats seem to ignore.

It happened with the Butterfly ballot in Florida in 2000. The fact that Team Newsom is telling people who ask to leave the 2nd question blank is a problem. Lots of ways to abuse the ballot.

[Hekate]

67. We dropped our ballots off today. We left question 2 blank, with misgivings. ...

The self-selected candidates were just garbage — not a single one belonged there. We Californians elected Newsom & he has done nothing to be removed before his term is up. He’s broken no laws, accepted no bribes, no one’s complained of sexual misconduct — nothing.

Oooo, there was that dinner at the French Laundry restaurant, bad optics.

Our biggest worry is that not enough Democrats will take this seriously. We’ll just have to wait and see.

[MagickMuffin]

3. Out of 782 people polled

I see everyone should be extremely worried.

[Ace Rothstein]

4. That's how polls work.

They don't poll the entire electorate.

[MagickMuffin]

15. I know that

[paleotn]

54. Yea, that poll is called ....the election.

[ChubbyStar]

10. Exactly this is kind of a sky falling OP

I am heading out with my ballot and my daughters, so here are 2 more votes to keep Newsom! The people behind the recall are idiots, liars, and fuckers. In another word - Repukes.

[PortTack]

20. That seems a minuscule poll number considering the number of voters in CA!

[former9thward]

25. Its a standard number for a state the size of CA.

No one complains about the number when they like the result.

[PortTack]

39. I complain about ALL the polls and their obvious inaccuracies in the last 3 election cycles

Good or bad

[former9thward]

42. This is a recall election.

That is the problem (possible) with the polls, not the number sampled. No one has any real idea who will bother to vote. So they could sample 10,000 and it might be off the mark.

[LanternWaste]

41. No one complains you say, eh?

Is that based merely on your own conjecture, or on actual data?

[ripcord]

5. If Newsom loses there is no one to blame but democrats

California has a long history of democrats who are too lazy to get off their asses and vote unless it is a presidential election year.

[Hortensis]

18. "Democrats" as in NONvoting and incompetent Democrats. Have to agree,

but I opened prepared to say I couldn't disagree more.

I'm scared that so many people seemingly don't realize what the alternative is. It seems possible that the same mixture of well meaning but clueless fools and willful destroyers who brought the trumpists to power really could repeat 2016 in California.

[wryter2000]

29. I pointed out the alternative to a voter the other day

I've been making calls for the Democratic Party. Last time I got an undecided voter. I told her Newsom has to get 50%+1 votes, but he's recalled the alternative only had to get 20% of the vote on the second question. I suggested she give that guy, the radio talk show host, a good look before she voted yes on the recall. She thanked me. I believe she'll be voting against the recall.

[JohnSJ]

26. I agree, but I don't think that will be the case. The. Postage paid ballots sent to every

registered vote, plus other things that make voting extremely easy, and the 45% registered Democrats to 22% registered republicans, along with the fact that it will be the large population centers which are heavily progressive, that determine the election, I am not sure are factored in appropriately

[ripcord]

28. Don't be too sure

I had a long talk with my granddaughter, she wasn't going to vote because she couldn't find her ballot.

[JohnSJ]

33. If she really wants to vote she can vote, even if she lost her ballot or never received one

Even if she isn’t registered she can register or re-register and vote on the same day

https://www.calvoter.org/content/voting-faq

You are assuming your granddaughter is the norm and not the exception, and I am not convinced of that

[ripcord]

43. People were saying the same thing right before Gray Davis was recalled

[JohnSJ]

47. No they weren't. The whole voting process is so much easier and streamlined than during the Davis

Night and day

[Drunken Irishman]

49. I am going to go with a hard disagree there.

Most everyone had conceded Davis would be recalled. It's why the Democrats ran Cruz Bustamante because they knew it was very likely that Davis would be recalled.

Here's a Gallup poll that had Davis losing the recall vote 63-35:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/9346/california-voters-say-yes-recall-schwarzenegger-new-poll.aspx

[ColinC]

6. Most of my friends and family who usually vote

Are needing to be reminded extra this time around. Stay on top of every ody you know and make sure they get those ballots in!!!!

[PortTack]

7. the polls and poll aggregators are no longer accurate as proven by the last 3 election cycles

It could be better, or not, but with CA being 64+% dem, and 18% independent ...this is a much better indicator

[ripcord]

9. You don't have much experience with California elections do you?

[PortTack]

11. I never claimed I did! Just stated known facts

[ripcord]

23. I have lived in California for 55 years and your statisitics mean nothing in this election

What you are saying is exactly what people were saying before Gray Davis was recalled, too many democrats in California don't vote unless the presidency is on the line. It doesn't matter what your majority is if many democrats are too stupid to vote in the election.

[PortTack]

35. It means more than a worthless 538 poll where they no longer do any accurate polling!

Last edited Mon Aug 30, 2021, 05:42 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

Increasingly, one suspects that despite his claims to analytical rigor, at some very basic level, Silver does not actually know what a poll is. He is not alone in this; a fair portion of the country’s political punditry and opinion-making class is equally misinformed. In their conception, polls of opinion and sentiment represent not a snapshot of the present as informed by the past, but rather a hazy but prescient view into the future; not a measurement, but a prediction. “[Y]ou can actually write down what will happen in the future, with as much confidence as you write down the history of the past. Because it’s science!” This is why so much media discourse around polling emphasizes a framework that paints polls of present attitudes as a form of absolute constraint on where sentiment will go.

[RussBLib]

13. poor California

the GOP throwing a temper tantrum while half the state is on fire and Covid is raging.

I hope there are enough Dems left in the state to keep Newsome.

[Vogon_Glory]

21. Are you sure that the California Republicans are raging

About COVID or do they want California’s per-capita COVID infection levels to match Florida’s, Texas’, Louisiana’s, and South Dakota’s?

[BComplex]

14. Every democrat in California needs to VOTE!!!

All hands on deck!!!

[PortTack]

17. Just putting this out there..the betting markets have a totally different view

Guess we’ll see which is more accurate. Right now with their horrible track record of the last 3 election cycles, I wouldn’t put two cents on the accuracy of any 538 poll

https://www.predictit.org/markets/search?query=Newsom

[Vogon_Glory]

19. Supporting Governor Newsome. Organizations? PACs?

One thing I’ve not seen here on DU are the names of organizations that SUPPORT Governor Newsom and favor KEEPING him in office. Could someone give us out-of-staters the names of some of the pro-Newsom outfits? I can’t give very much but I could give something.

[PortTack]

22. Don't have any names right off hand, have seen lots of articles of big names in support of

Bernie Sanders released video in support of Newsom

[Vogon_Glory]

77. Bernie videos are nice, but...

The first outfit that e-mailed me saying that they were giving money to support Newsom was a Democratic PAC that was only going to do a 50-50 split with the anti-recall campaign. I ground my teeth and sent them a contribution.

[Pachamama]

24. It's way too close for comfort

I also think that Newsom and the CA Democratic Party are not getting the word out enough and there is a lot of apathy. I had to remind several people in recent days of the date of the recall and they had forgotten, despite having their ballot.

I also think a huge mistake by the CA Democratic Party and Newsom is that they got this…they are recommending that Democratic voters leave the 2nd question blank which is choosing who should replace Newsom should he be recalled. You can’t put his name in and there is not one name that is recognizable or credible on the ballot from the Democratic Party and it’s mostly Republicans including Larry Elder who is scary and Caitlin Jenner amongst others. With the number of names on ballot and Newsom telling Dems to leave it blank, it is very possible he is recalled and the state gets a Governor that is Republican and has only 20% of the vote….this is crazy!

I wrote in Lt. Governor Elena Kounalakis. She is great and she is the person who would replace the Governor in the event of death for example. So why didn’t Newsom and the Democratic Party at least recommend Democrats put her name on the ballot?

Arrogance and a huge mistake. And yes, I am worried.

[Mad_Machine76]

27. Why did you write in a name?

I thought that you only vote for a candidate if you vote "Yes" on the Recall question? Or am I missing something?

[Sympthsical]

30. Everyone votes on the second question n/t

[Mad_Machine76]

34. Ok

I guess I didn't understand (I'm not in California)

[beaglelover]

59. I left the 2nd question blank. Voted 'no' on the first question. Signed the back of the envelope

and mailed it in.

[Sympthsical]

60. Blank is still a vote

Just a vote for "None of the above."

Hopefully we win. If not, whoopsie.

[beaglelover]

61. Damn, should have voted for Angelyne!

[Sympthsical]

65. I went with the college student

Just for giggles.

[wryter2000]

31. They are totally separate questions

You can vote on 2 if you vote no on 1. And voting on 2 does not invalidate your no vote on 1.

However, none of the Dem alternatives have a chance of beating Elder.

[Celerity]

38. no, you can vote for a replacement even if you vote not to recall or leave the recall option blank

https://www.nytimes.com/article/newsom-recall-election-voter-guide.html

[crimycarny]

55. You can write in a name if you vote "no" but you don't have to

If you vote no on the recall, you can leave question 2 blank. Most people who vote "no" are leaving it blank but if you write in a name it won't invalidate your no vote.

[wryter2000]

32. Welcome to DU

Good OP.

[California Kid]

48. Thank you

[2naSalit]

36. Don't forget that...

The current postmaster gen. is probably helping out on this one.

[LiberalFighter]

37. I consider the recall vote a defective election.

It requires 50% of the voters to vote No but those in the running to replace him if he is recalled don't need 50% or more of all votes to win.

[ripcord]

44. You can consider it anything you want

But if we don't get a better than normal turnout California will have a republican governor.

[greenjar_01]

40. Welcome to DU

[California Kid]

46. Thank you

[chowder66]

51. My vote is still lost and another person that returned their ballot on the same day said theirs is

lost too. The postal carrier picked it up on Aug. 17th.
I called USPS, then my local office, filled out a missing mail form, called the Registrar's office 3 x now.

The post office can't do anything because the ballots go through distribution to other post offices and there is no way to tell where the ballot got lost or delayed.
I'm shit out of luck if they don't find it.

[GReedDiamond]

66. I know for you it's too late to matter, but...

...I took my ballot to a secure ballot drop box located in a city park, maybe 1/2 mile away from my house.

I checked my ballot status at california.ballottrax.net, and I got this:

Your ballot has been accepted! Your ballot was received by your county elections office and counted. Thanks for voting!

Given the current state of the USPS, I thought it would be safer to use the drop box at the park.

[chowder66]

69. Thanks but I had been sending letters, checks, etc

in the mail with no issues other than a letter being 2 days delayed due to weather.
I have an account with ballottrax and that's why after 9 days I started to get worried and called the county registrar.

30 years of voting by mail and this has never happened. I guess I'll be going to the drop box or voting in person going forward.

[GReedDiamond]

70. Honestly, I don't really have a problem with the USPS...

...they still deliver everything in a pretty timely manner, at least where I am.

But I figured, ya never know what could happen, so I went with the drop box.

At least that way I knew where the ballot went, so it might be easier to trace if it didn't show as accepted on the tracking site.

I hope your ballot turns up before Sept. 14!

[chowder66]

71. Thanks! Me too.

[NewJeffCT]

52. Hillary was up by small margins going into election day in 2016

Earlier in 2016, STAY was ahead in Brexit polling as well.

[TheRickles]

53. Those percentages (50.6% - 46.3%) are the average of seven polls going back to mid-July.

According to your link, the most recent poll (the one with a sample size of 782), taken Aug 22-25, has Keep leading Remove by 57% - 42%. So it might not be a squeaker.

[aeromanKC]

56. Newsom's term is up in 22

Worst case senario is California gets a whackadoodle GQP Gov. for a year. Should shock them back to reality.

[PatrickforB]

57. Only two governors in US history have been recalled.

Guess what? Gray Davis of CA was one of them, in 2003.

Why? Gun nuts.

In 1999, he signed a ban on assault weapons by characteristic, and in 2001 signed a bill requiring people to pass a safety test when they buy a gun.

OMG, mah ryhts! Mah second 'mendmint ryhts!



The NRA brought in lots of out of state money and caused his recall. The same thing happened to some legislators in Colorado in the oughts, too. They had the temerity to think that universal background checks were reasonable for gun buyers.

Nope. The second amendment nuts saw to that.

But cheer up. Newsom didn't sign gun control legislation. He had the temerity to try and keep his population safe during the pandemic. That is why the right wing-nuts are trying to recall him.

We'll see. Ordinarily I'd try to cheer you up by telling you that Americans tend to be pretty reluctant to just remove someone from elected office, especially a governor, but California has in fact done so, and recently at that.

I suspect he will survive, though.

[aggiesal]

68. That was not the reason Gray Davis got recalled ...

3 Primary reasons.
1) During the 2002 election he failed to mention that the state would be $30B in debt because of the .com implosion.
2) To make up the difference he decided to triple the vehicle registration fee.
3) Rolling blackouts that was induced by Enron, forcing Davis to purchase high priced electricity for the State to keep it from going even higher.
Davis & Bustamante sued Enron on behalf of the California citizens and won.

Then Enron convinced Herr Gropenator to run in the RECALL. When he won, the first thing he did was agree on a settlement with Enron where Enron only had to pay only 3% ($270M) of the $9 billion in illicit profits.
https://www.democracynow.org/2003/10/6/schwarzenegger_accused_of_involvement_in_9b

[PatrickforB]

72. Interesting. You learn something new every day, and it is totally unsurprising to me

that corporate corruption had a part in it. Still, the gun issue was a factor - perhaps not causal, but certainly correlated in a regression sense.

[aggiesal]

73. Once the RECALL was on ...

everything was on the table.

The real kicker was that if all (D)'s stuck together and voted NO and not have any RECALL candidates, No votes would have exceeded all Yes votes.
Bustamante votes plus NO votes would have easily exceeded Herr Gropenator's votes.

[aggiesal]

58. I believe it's this close, because the RECALL Election is designed for the ...

current person being recalled to lose.

Here is why.
There are 46 candidate trying to become Governor, and Newsom trying to defeat the RECALL.

The first vote is:
YES we want to RECALL
NO we don't want to RECALL

A NO Vote is basically a vote for Newsom
If you vote YES, then you get to select 1 of the 46 candidates of which Newsom is NOT on the list.

Now here's the problem.
Let's say that 2 million voters vote in the RECALL
950,000 voted NO (So basically Newsom received 950,000 votes)
1,050,000 voted YES

Voting YES now allows you to vote for 1 of the 46 candidates or Write-In candidate.

The possibility exists that none of the 46 candidates would receive more than 950,000 votes but still become Governor.
And the more candidates you have on the list, the harder it is to defeat the RECALL.
Newsom would lose, receiving the most votes!!! Think about that.

I've been complaining about this since the Gray Davis RECALL.

One last point. Newsom's team is telling people to just vote NO and leave the 46 candidates blank.
I argued with the staff, that if everyone that votes NO, writes in Newsom as the Write-In Candidate,
Newsom would lose the RECALL, but have the most Candidate votes, thus Recalling himself and remaining Governor.
They told me to leave it blank. (I have the Text Transcripts of this discussion).

[Pachamama]

74. Please read my post #24

FYI - Newsom can NOT be a write-in candidate and this has been verified and clearly stated by the CA Sec of State and even the CA Democratic Party

While I agree with your point that the Recall is designed against the person being recalled, however Newsom and the CA Democratic Party have made a fatal mistake in telling all Democrats to leave the 2nd Question blank because if the recall is successful, this guarantees a GOP candidate with a minority of the vote.

All they should have done is had the Lt Governor Elena Kounalakis’s name placed on the recall as a candidate and to tell people to vote for her as the possible replacement in the event there is a recall. She is highly qualified, Lifelong Democrat and currently elected by a majority to the Lt. Governor position which would normally assume the duties of the Governor if he or she can’t fulfill their duties until the next election.

Using your example - if 950,000 (or even a large majority of that number of voters) voted for the Lt. Governor, then the splintering of the 1,050,000 amongst 46 candidates would have made it nearly impossible if not difficult for any one GOP candidate to have a majority of the vote.

This would have been the wise thing to do strategically and at least keep the Governorship and our state from literally falling into the hands of the GOP and to unqualified, inexperienced, never elected and even dangerous people who will yield a lot of power - including the power to appoint a Republican Senator in the event of an open position - and shift the power of the US Senate.

I believe Newsom while a good Governor and I have no complaints, is arrogant and overconfident. And the CA Democratic Party made a big mistake and it may prove devastating.

[joetheman]

75. Wonder how much zip code hanky-panky is going on from de Joy MAGA employees? nt

[DVRacer]

81. I just spent a week in SoCal

My observation is a little skewed due to where and what I was doing. Of the segment I interacted with they are very much in favor of recall and adamant about following through with voting.
First were my Uber drivers I barely cracked the door on politics and was overwhelmed with a negative bias towards the administration locally and nationally ie President Biden.
Second was Law enforcement not surprised here.

The third group was sport fishing folks there are some new regulations on the horizon that may harm the industry while meant to be environmentally friendly. This group had petitions about saving the industry and reminders of the recall and to vote to remove. I go out fishing every year and the change here was the most surprising as recently as 2019 it was at least 50/50 over the two days and nights on the ocean it became clear my son and I were the only supportive Democrats on board out of 50 people most California residents.
I live in Oklahoma and I’m attuned to Red Hat ideas and I was shocked by what I was hearing. One “issue” that seemed to come up in various settings was some weird ammunition law where you have to wait on a background check to buy any. I looked it up and can see how that could piss people off the way it has been implemented.