The Supreme Court May Have Just Handed Democrats The 2022 Election

[babylonsister]

https://www.politicususa.com/2021/09/02/supreme-court-democrats-2022.html


Posted on Thu, Sep 2nd, 2021 by Jason Easley
The Supreme Court May Have Just Handed Democrats The 2022 Election


The Supreme Court’s refusal to act on the illegal Texas abortion law has flipped the abortion politics script and could cost Republicans in 2022.

The “Culture War” Flips To Democrats

NBC News suggested that the Supreme Court’s gutting of Roe v. Wade through inaction presents a new problem for Republicans:

Democrats in Washington, who face stiff headwinds in defending their majorities in Congress in next year’s elections, see a new opportunity to motivate voters who may have taken abortion rights for granted.

And Republicans are dealing with an unsettling new political landscape after having promised to outlaw abortions for decades to motivate their base.

Republicans Have Used Abortion As A Get Out The Vote Tool For Decades

The problem for Republicans is that they never intended to get rid of legalized abortion in the United States. They haven’t done so in the nearly 50 years since Roe because abortion was an easy issue to rile up their voters and get them to the polls. Republicans could promise whatever they wanted on abortion because they thought that it would never happen.

Thanks to Texas, and the Supreme Court, it has happened.

A new NBC News poll showed that the only majorities in the country who supported making abortion illegal were evangelicals, the South, and rural voters. 54% of the country wants abortion to be legal.

Evangelicals and rural people are declining populations in the United States, so the negative outweighs the positive by a large margin for Republicans on this issue.

Democrats Have Been Given A Massive Opening For 2022

Instead of having to defend their record of the past two years, Democrats can argue that control of Congress will decide the fate of legalized abortion in the United States.

This argument will be compelling in the states with open Senate seats like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. If Democrats add another two Senate seats while keeping control of the majority, they should have the ability to change the filibuster. If Democrats flip one open seat and defeat an incumbent like Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, the filibuster will be gone.

Thanks to the Supreme Court, the midterm election dynamics have changed, as Democrats now have an issue to fight for, and when Democrats show up to vote, Democrats win elections.

[Elessar Zappa]

1. That's right.

Plenty of women will come out and vote for the party that protects choice (I know there’s many anti-choice women but they’re a minority).

[PortTack]

3. Yup! And the RW crazy chreestians will stop giving thinking they've accomplished their goal

Double whammy

[TheRealNorth]

7. They are sheep

There will be another cause.

[JarOCats]

50. Obergefell. N/T

[leftyladyfrommo]

2. Boy, I hope you are right. nt

[Jspur]

4. I won't assume anything considering

how dumb and unpredictable this country can be. You have to factor in all these right wing nutcases that will turn up in high numbers due to this law. We'll see if enough democrat voters can offset these rightwing loonies in these purple stats.

[MyOwnPeace]

5. I'll believe it when I see it.......

Who ever thought TFG could possibly get as many votes as he did after four years of 'fuster-cluck' leadership?

[Demsrule86]

31. He was an incumbent. Only two incumbents have lost since Hoover...Bush I and Carter.

It is a miracle we got him out.

[Bleacher Creature]

6. If only . . .

If this happened in September 2022, I'd be hopeful of a backlash in the midterms, but 14 months is a LONG time for a country of people with short memories.

[Heartstrings]

8. +1000. Nt

[qazplm135]

11. Abortion

Is one of the few things to break through short memories.

[Sogo]

16. Not if the Dems keep

catapulting the message....

[temporary311]

22. How often do they do that, though?

[IronLionZion]

26. Afghanistan and COVID might be forgotten by then

as voters enjoy a sweet strong Biden economy.

[Demsrule86]

30. This isn't the end of it...other rightie states will follow suit and may be even more extreme.

They may ban birth control for example.

[enough]

9. Depends on how badly the Republicans screw elections. NT

[GoodRaisin]

10. Hope so. We need to expand the fucking court

as soon as possible.

[East-A-Squared]

12. Only if turnout is high.

[Evolve Dammit]

13. Here's hoping. This should piss off anyone who believes in personal choice, eh anti-maskers? n/t

[Sogo]

14. Two pronged:

women's rights and the importance of Supreme Court selections.

If this doesn't turn out women, nothing will!

[mcar]

15. FL legislature is going to do the same thing

Just saw on Twitter.

If this doesn't mobilize Democrats, nothing will.

[Texin]

17. Rethugs are the proverbial dog that caught the car they've been chasing for 50 years.

[Marius25]

18. I really don't believe this argument.

Republicans are successfully gerrymandering and passing extremely strict voter restriction laws. In Georgia, they can flat out overturn any election they don't like the result of.

Just because Democrats may be more galvanized due to this decision, doesn't mean it's enough to overcome Republican cheating.

And I'm still not convinced this will make young people get out and vote.

[gab13by13]

20. Yeah, I agree with the post,

because it talks about the Senate where gerrymandering doesn't come into play. I am really worried about keeping the House, especially if we don't pass S1.

[Demsrule86]

27. This will help in the House also...the burbs have lots of women who are no doubt shocked that

this could happen. When I did my GOTV...I always heard young women say that Roe was decided and not an issue anymore...now they may lose birth control and abortion. I believe this will cause some house losses for the GOP.

[leftstreet]

29. Are suburban women really shocked?

Has anyone even polled this?

Do most suburban women even realize how few abortion providers are even in their own states?

[Demsrule86]

32. I don't have a poll for you. But, I have worked for years with GOTV...door knocking. and phone calls

Most women I spoke with when I brought up Roe...informed me that "hey it is settled, we don't need to worry about that anymore "...and they out and out laughed about the idea that birth control could be banned. I lived in the suburbs of numerous rustbelt states and even in Georgia. I lived in Connecticut and New York ( both the city and upstate) and Pennsylvania (the Alabama part of Pennsylvania). Few women believe they could lose Roe and none believed they could lose birth control. So yeah I think suburban women will be shocked and more red states will do this. And there are bound to be deaths and hardships because of these laws. I think it will affect the midterms in a good way for us.

[Marius25]

47. I'd really love to hear from more people who

may be Republican or Independent just realizing now that Republicans are overturning Roe after these people were convinced it would never happen. Would be interesting to find it out if their voting habits change, or if they start supporting the bans.

[meadowlander]

46. Bearing in mind these are the same suburban women who voted for Trump post-Kavanagh

I feel like that ship has sailed.

Anyway, suburban white women will still have access to abortion - they just have a build a vacation around it now.

But it might increase turnout for poor people to some extent but this will be balanced by increased turnout from Evangelicals.

So it probably helps a little, but I don't think it hands the election to anyone.

[Demsrule86]

28. They won't be able to overturn elections IMHO.

[Marius25]

48. We also thought they wouldn't be able to

overturn Roe or try to overthrow Democracy. Yet look where we are.

Never underestimate what Republicans will get away with.

[shrike3]

42. I don't, either. I wish I did. n/t

[gulliver]

19. Yep, the dog caught the car, but it was the dogcatcher's car

[Paladin]

21. Only if we forego our good manners and fight dirty with the Republicans.

Until we get down in the gutter with the fascists, they'll kick our asses and walk away laughing. Some day that'll dawn on Democrats---probably when democracy is a dim memory and Donald Trump IV rules from the Florida White House. "But those Democrats: such gracious losers" they'll still be murmuring.)

[SunImp]

23. I'm ready to fight dirty and I hope every other decent person is too.

We need to fight tooth and nail to save this country from the loonies and other outright scum.

[Paladin]

45. So glad to hear from another reality adherent. (nt)

[FakeNoose]

24. Repukes are going to realize very quickly

... they never really intended to BAN abortion. They just wanted to pacify the crazy "religious right" voters and keep them on board. But the cost will be horrendously high when all the middle-class non-crazy people LEAVE the GOP in droves, as they're already doing now.

The result will be only the crazy ones left in the party, and who would vote for them? Who would even agree with them? This is how the entire party self-destructs.

[caraher]

39. Exactly

The article in the OP says exactly what I'd always thought:

The problem for Republicans is that they never intended to get rid of legalized abortion in the United States. They haven’t done so in the nearly 50 years since Roe because abortion was an easy issue to rile up their voters and get them to the polls. Republicans could promise whatever they wanted on abortion because they thought that it would never happen.

They may have jumped the shark - let's hope so!

[Demsrule86]

25. That is very true. Now it becomes a voting issue.

And let's hope we take PA, WI, and OH...Tim Ryan is running...he may not win...I will be honest as I live in Ohio. But he is the only one with a chance of winning. There is also a seat in North Carolina. This could tip the balance. It will help Warnock in Georgia too. And it will help hold our New Hampshire seat.

[Lonestarblue]

33. We really need to get younger voters mobilized.

They have taken so many rights for granted, but they need to be shown through every media source possible that taking away reproductive rights is only the first step in Republicans’ efforts to reverse civil rights. Texas has already cued up their next bill to bad medical abortions. The next rights to go will be forms of birth control. Then same-sex marriage and other LGBTQ rights.

That’s the message that may get young people out to vote. Republicans will make your rights disappear one law at a time, and the Supreme Court will do nothing to stop them, just as they did nothing to stop the Texas 6-week ban n abortion even though it is unconstitutional since Roe is still the law of the land and says that abortion is an option up to viability.

[LymphocyteLover]

36. Yes-- and young voters are overwhelmingly liberal

[LeftInTX]

43. Especially with regards to reproductive rights....

[oldsoftie]

34. SCOTUS is still taking up the Miss. law before the '22 elections

Striking that down would end up also striking the texas law I believe
And this weeks decision also doesnt mean they wont take up the Texas case at some point either.
But yes, the moderates will rebel against this if it stands. And those folks are who wins elections

[LeftInTX]

44. I kinda don't think it would strike down the Texas law

The Texas law is a civil bunch of BS....

Find an abortion. Sue some random person. Collect $10,000.......
The Texas law does not outlaw abortion after six weeks.....

The architect of the Texas law, (who is a lobbyist) stated that they did not have enough votes to outlaw abortion, so they did this civil lawsuit thing.....

[LymphocyteLover]

35. Gotta hope so-- now if we can only get around the freaking voter suppression laws

[bucolic_frolic]

37. Voters make legislatures and legislatures make laws

Courts have become weak, confused by everything, they just throw up their hands and say "No, can't do anything about that, voters and laws must decide" but they are not policing voting rights adequately.

[cstanleytech]

41. Its not an issue of policing voting rights adequately it is that to many are injecting their own

political beliefs in their rulings to help legislatures that share those same political beliefs shape the laws.
In other words we have alot of biased judges and unfortunately for our country 6 are the conservative justices on the supreme court.

[Traildogbob]

38. Women will vote😆😆😆

GQP fixed that too. We could have 95 million women vote against AmurKKKan ISIS, Taliban are the reasonable ones, and the new GQP election masters can just throw them all away, and install their newest Cleric.

[cstanleytech]

40. Problem is though how to get the enough of those people that support a women to have

the right to choose if she wants to have an abortion to the polls to actually vote.

[Stinky The Clown]

49. I have been thinking this for a while.

We have not one cudgel, but three

Abortion because of all these abortion laws and as articulated in the OP.

Covid because of sick and dead kids because of hateful Republican laws

Voting rights laws could get HUGE turnouts since it is clearer and clearer the GOP will shut it down for Democrats if they stay in power.





We need to tell the clear story about why we need more Senate seats, more House seats and more state houses and state legislatures. The GOP can not be allowed to continue.

The GOP is a metastisizing political cancer.