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Laurie Garrett: Is There a COVID-19 Endgame?
Human Vaccines ProjectWhile much of the world struggles to access COVID-19 vaccines, many countries are beginning or expanding their efforts to administer third doses of vaccine to boost immune responses against the virus. On August 12, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) amended the Emergency Use Authorizations for both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA-based vaccines to include a third booster dose for immunocompromised individuals. Booster doses for additional populations are expected to be authorized and recommended in the coming weeks, particularly for the elderly and healthcare workers who were among the first to be vaccinated. The U.S. FDA and its Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices are currently reviewing the data.
The urgency around COVID vaccine boosters is largely fueled by the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant, which is responsible for an uptick in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations worldwide, especially among the unvaccinated. Previous studies indicated that the Delta variant was two times more transmissible. Now, a recent study in The Lancet shows that unvaccinated individuals infected with the Delta variant in the U.K. were more than twice as likely to be hospitalized than those infected with the Alpha variant. In this study, hospitalization rates were too low among vaccinated individuals infected with the Delta variant to draw any conclusions for this group. But there was some reassuring news on this front from New York City. Recently released data from the City’s Health Department indicate that only 0.3% of fully vaccinated residents have been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of August 7th, and only 0.02% of those fully vaccinated have been hospitalized for COVID, even with the Delta variant surging.
To catch us up on all this news and to ask what an endgame for COVID-19 might look like, HVP Editor Kristen Jill Abboud recently spoke with Laurie Garrett, a veteran science journalist, former Senior Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations, and member of HVP's Futures Council. An edited version of our conversation appears below.
Are vaccine boosters necessary because of waning immunity induced by the mRNA vaccines?
I’m not completely convinced that what we are seeing is actually waning immunity. The New York City data is startling. Those data are from a period when the Delta variant was overtaking the city, and if it were the case that the vaccines were failing to protect against this variant of the virus, we should have seen a steady escalation in the number of hospitalized and dying individuals who were fully vaccinated. But in fact, over that time period, only 0.003% of those who had succumbed to COVID in the city had been fully vaccinated. That is absolutely mind blowing. Honestly, if you were to compare that to many of the childhood vaccines, I think you would find that many of the routine vaccinations are not performing as well. That’s quite striking.
The urgency around COVID vaccine boosters is largely fueled by the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant, which is responsible for an uptick in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations worldwide, especially among the unvaccinated. Previous studies indicated that the Delta variant was two times more transmissible. Now, a recent study in The Lancet shows that unvaccinated individuals infected with the Delta variant in the U.K. were more than twice as likely to be hospitalized than those infected with the Alpha variant. In this study, hospitalization rates were too low among vaccinated individuals infected with the Delta variant to draw any conclusions for this group. But there was some reassuring news on this front from New York City. Recently released data from the City’s Health Department indicate that only 0.3% of fully vaccinated residents have been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of August 7th, and only 0.02% of those fully vaccinated have been hospitalized for COVID, even with the Delta variant surging.
To catch us up on all this news and to ask what an endgame for COVID-19 might look like, HVP Editor Kristen Jill Abboud recently spoke with Laurie Garrett, a veteran science journalist, former Senior Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations, and member of HVP's Futures Council. An edited version of our conversation appears below.
Are vaccine boosters necessary because of waning immunity induced by the mRNA vaccines?
I’m not completely convinced that what we are seeing is actually waning immunity. The New York City data is startling. Those data are from a period when the Delta variant was overtaking the city, and if it were the case that the vaccines were failing to protect against this variant of the virus, we should have seen a steady escalation in the number of hospitalized and dying individuals who were fully vaccinated. But in fact, over that time period, only 0.003% of those who had succumbed to COVID in the city had been fully vaccinated. That is absolutely mind blowing. Honestly, if you were to compare that to many of the childhood vaccines, I think you would find that many of the routine vaccinations are not performing as well. That’s quite striking.
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That's their prerogative. I just don't want to get their illness. 
