= new reply since forum marked as read
... I think that Jill and Susan probably convinced few Democrats to vote for The Donald... but I do think that Jill and Susan convinced more than a few voters to stay home.
You don't need 60 votes to pass anything, just change the damn rules and pass the agenda.
Obama knew this, I am shocked and amazed that the rest of the Democratic caucus cannot wrap their heads around this simple truth.
From "A Promised Land"
and interviews in magazines, newspapers and TV, her political activism as campaigner for Nader, Edwards, Bernie (twice!), and large social media following is ... nonexistent? I'm sure Bernie Sanders/Sunrise Movement/Justice Democrats don't think she's a nonentity.
constant fixture on prime time TV whining about how screwed up Democrats are, revolution ‘splainin everywhere, and now we’re told it all never happened. What??
If Hillary, in just FOUR cities (Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee) had just gotten the 2012 African American turnout in 2016, she would have won.
The drop-off in black votes surpassed, numbers-wise, all of the Stein vote (the part that actually would vote for a Dem if no Green candidate, which is far, far from 100%) in those 3 states, WI, MI, and PA (and especially those 4 cities). A large chunk of 2016 Stein voters never had, did not then (obviously) and likely never will vote for a Dem POTUS.
The only thing that brought Stein voters to the fore was the closeness of the election, BUT, people also forget (sometimes wilfully) that almost FOUR TIMES her vote totals voted for 3 RW 3rd party/indy candidates, Gary Johnson (4,489,359) Evan McMullin (732,409), and Darrell Castle (203,107) (Constitution Party).
5,424,875 votes for those 3 RWers, who pulled hard from Trump,
versus 1,457,288 LW 3rd party votes for Stein (with likely less than a million of those who might have voted Dem if no Green)
Almost a 4 million vote advantage for the RW over the LW major 3rd party candidates in terms of raw vote totals.
No other 3rd party US candidate garnered more than 74,405 votes, the next below that was 33,136, then 24,308, then 13,538, etc etc.
Remove Stein, Johnson, McMullin, and Castle and then do a realistic allocation of their votes between Clinton, Trump, and no votes for POTUS, and Trump has a fighting chance at winning the 2016 popular vote as well as the EC.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
Black voter turnout fell in 2016, even as a record number of Americans cast ballots
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/
The black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6% in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012. The 7-percentage-point decline from the previous presidential election is the largest on record for blacks. (It’s also the largest percentage-point decline among any racial or ethnic group since white voter turnout dropped from 70.2% in 1992 to 60.7% in 1996.) The number of black voters also declined, falling by about 765,000 to 16.4 million in 2016, representing a sharp reversal from 2012. With Barack Obama on the ballot that year, the black voter turnout rate surpassed that of whites for the first time. Among whites, the 65.3% turnout rate in 2016 represented a slight increase from 64.1% in 2012.
Why black voter turnout fell in 2016
How voting Democratic has become integral to African Americans’ cultural identity.
https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/1/15/16891020/black-voter-turnout
“Black Voters Aren’t Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party.” It’s a familiar headline in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election. Indeed, post-election analysis of voter data shows black turnout in presidential elections declined 4.7 percent between 2012 and 2016 (overall turnout showed a small decline from 61.8 percent in 2012 to 61.4 percent in 2016).
How do we explain it — and can it be changed? My ongoing research with Ismail White on political norms among black Americans says we ought to have expected the decline, but that the Democratic Party can do much more to cut it back by recognizing how social dynamics shape African-American politics.
Some have attributed the decline in black turnout to voter suppression tactics made possible by the Shelby v. Holder (2013) decision that rescinded key protections from the Voting Rights Act. But black turnout saw similar declines in states where no new voter laws were implemented after the Shelby decision. Others have simplistically pointed to the absence of the first black president on the ballot — as if that fact offers an explanation. Our work on the social dynamics of politics within the black community provides the missing explanation.
In our recent publication in the American Political Science Review, we argue that the continued social isolation of blacks in American society has created spaces and incentives for the emergence of black political norms. Democratic partisanship has become significantly tied to black identity in the United States. The historical and continued racial segregation of black communities has produced spaces in which in-group members can leverage social sanctions against other group members to ensure compliance with group partisan norms.
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Study: Black turnout slumped in 2016
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/10/black-election-turnout-down-2016-census-survey-238226
Census shows pervasive decline in 2016 minority voter turnout
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/05/18/census-shows-pervasive-decline-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout/
Study: Black voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by nearly one-fifth in 2016
https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/study-black-voter-turnout-in-wisconsin-declined-by-nearly-one/article_d3e72e41-96a0-51fb-83ba-11dfc6693daf.html
Turnout among black voters in Wisconsin dropped about 19 percent in the 2016 election from 2012, more than four times the national decline, according to a new study by a liberal group.
The study, released by the Center for American Progress, made the estimates based on data from the U.S. Census, polls and state voter files.
It provides the strongest evidence yet that Wisconsin’s decline in voter turnout, while seen in other demographic groups, was much more dramatic among African-Americans.
The study also found in Wisconsin, as in other key states, the 2016 electorate was significantly more white and non-college- educated than was reported by exit polls immediately after the election.
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Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didn’t Vote — and Don’t Regret It
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/us/many-in-milwaukee-neighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html
MILWAUKEE — Four barbers and a firefighter were pondering their future under a Trump presidency at the Upper Cutz barbershop last week.
“We got to figure this out,” said Cedric Fleming, one of the barbers. “We got a gangster in the chair now,” he said, referring to President-elect Donald J. Trump.They admitted that they could not complain too much: Only two of them had voted. But there were no regrets. “I don’t feel bad,” Mr. Fleming said, trimming a mustache. “Milwaukee is tired. Both of them were terrible. They never do anything for us anyway.”
Wisconsin, a state that Hillary Clinton had assumed she would win, historically boasts one of the nation’s highest rates of voter participation; this year’s 68.3 percent turnout was the fifth best among the 50 states. But by local standards, it was a disappointment, the lowest turnout in 16 years. And those no-shows were important. Mr. Trump won the state by just 27,000 voters.
Milwaukee’s lowest-income neighborhoods offer one explanation for the turnout figures. Of the city’s 15 council districts, the decline in turnout from 2012 to 2016 in the five poorest was consistently much greater than the drop seen in more prosperous areas — accounting for half of the overall decline in turnout citywide.
The biggest drop was here in District 15, a stretch of fading wooden homes, sandwich shops and fast-food restaurants that is 84 percent black. In this district, voter turnout declined by 19.5 percent from 2012 figures, according to Neil Albrecht, executive director of the City of Milwaukee Election Commission. It is home to some of Milwaukee’s poorest residents and, according to a 2016 documentary, “Milwaukee 53206,” has one of the nation’s highest per-capita incarceration rates.
At Upper Cutz, a bustling barbershop in a green-trimmed wooden house, talk of politics inevitably comes back to one man: Barack Obama. Mr. Obama’s elections infused many here with a feeling of connection to national politics they had never before experienced. But their lives have not gotten appreciably better, and sourness has set in.
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and when they did vote there was this...
Mostly black neighborhoods voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2012
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/25/mostly-black-neighborhoods-voted-more-republican-in-2016-than-in-2012/
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A few things jump out. First: The most heavily white neighborhoods voted much more heavily Republican in 2016 than in 2012 (the dark red line shoots up past the light-red one). Second, the most heavily black neighborhoods voted less heavily Democratic last year than four years ago. (We’ll come back to this, obviously.) Third, Hispanic neighborhoods voted for Republicans less than in 2012.
The net effect of those shifts can be measured by comparing the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 with the Trump-Clinton margin in each neighborhood last year. In heavily white neighborhoods, a big shift to the Republicans. In mostly Hispanic neighborhoods, generally more support for the Democrat, except in the most dense places (although, as the chart on the right makes clear, the sample size for those is very small and therefore more subject to volatility).
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This Chart Shows Philadelphia Black Voters Stayed Home, Costing Clinton
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/johntemplon/this-chart-shows-philadelphia-black-voters-stayed-home-costi
One of the most surprising results of Election Day was Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania — a state that had voted for the Democrat in every election since 1988. As of the Pennsylvania Board of Elections’ latest tally, Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 57,588 votes. More than 60% of that margin comes from a shift in the vote in Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia data offers a particularly clear glimpse at what went wrong for Hillary Clinton: A block of voters who showed up for Barack Obama wasn’t inspired enough by her — or scared enough by Donald Trump — to show up. And as analysts pore over the results of the campaign, the numbers in Philadelphia offer perhaps the most devastating single data point for the Clinton campaign.
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massive drop in 85% black Detroit and again, Milwaukee too
Link to tweet
this is simply part revisionist history, and part untruth, especially the part about it not being a racially-based and racist term from it's origin
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/02/25/hillary-clinton-responds-to-activist-who-demanded-apology-for-superpredator-remarks/
“They are not just gangs of kids anymore. They are often the kinds of kids that are called ‘superpredators.’ No conscience, no empathy. We can talk about why they ended up that way, but first we have to bring them to heel.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2016/04/07/bill-defends-hillary-s-black-youth-superpredators-quote
You said
"It is my firm belief that clearly there are people in our society who are horribly violent, who are deeply sick and sociopathic and clearly these people must be put behind bars in order to protect society from them."
nice mid-quote chop job
from my WaPo Capehart article above:
I highlight the part you chopped off, which dramatically changes the tenor and tone of that part of Sanders' floor speech (but you knew that)
Also noteworthy is Clinton saying then, “We can talk about why they ended up that way.” I highlight that because Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Clinton’s presidential campaign rival and then a member of the House, gave an impassioned floor speech in 1994 raising questions about cause and effect.
I am done here, I have posted multiple, well-reasoned, detailed, documented posts/replies, and rebutted some false claims that you have made (for example that superpredators was never about race, when the very person who invented the term specifically cast it in racial terms, with racist intent, again fully documented by me), as well as showing that you are engaging in false argument manufacturing (ie. the 1996 versus 1994 invention, on a subject I did not even bring up first, and certainly never claimed she said it in 1994).
have a nice day
I thank you and I hope everybody in this thread take the time to read these 
Link to tweet
Only Fucked UP Sarandon spewed "Hillary was Worse than trump.." & she's never fucking owned it.
We're Making her OWN IT>
... here she is palling-around with and ENDORSING Jill Stein over Hillary. She deserves some of the blame too.
place for her part in it, too.
"Did you eat a cupcake?" ... "No."
As for Bri Grey...never forget the glee she felt over helping to usher Trump into the White House.
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as is the citing of percentages without concrete figures.
Can you cite the extrapolation calculation method you used, the concrete numbers that they reference, and the sources of your data?
Data analysis is complex and best left to experts.
