New PPP NH Presidential Poll: Romney leading by 1

[cali]

49-48. Before the 1st debate Obama led by 6-8.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

[Baitball Blogger]

1. Is this the one that everyone was trying to prepare us for?

[cali]

3. I don't know.

All I do know is that the incessant happy talk here is ignoring some less than propitious indicators.

[vdogg]

12. Less than 24 hours ago

Half the forum was ready to commit suicide. I'll take positively motivated people and "happy talk" over gloom and doom any day.

[regnaD kciN]

4. No, that's their Iowa poll...

...which I predict will be about the same.

[ProSense]

24. The Iowa poll shows same results as NH, Romney 49, Obama 48

Romney leads Obama 49-48 in Iowa as well, although Obama does have a 66/32 early vote lead there

Iowa voters think Obama won this week's debate 45/36, similar to New Hampshire, but not having a big impact on the head to head.

PPP is the only poll showing Romney ahead in Iowa.

Polling from present back to September 26:

NBC/WSJ/Marist +8
WeAskAmerica +3
ARG tie
Rasmussen Reports +2
WeAskAmerica +4
Des Moines Register +4
PPP (D) +7

[vdogg]

2. Meh...

Can't win em all. The polls today have been excellent for Obama, I'll let them have this one. It's well within the margin of error anyway.

[cali]

6. actually, the polls for the President today are a mixed bag

[vdogg]

8. Which polls are you looking at?

Per Nate Silver...

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

National polls published in past 24 hours: Obama +3.2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +1, Obama +0.6, Obama +0.5, TIE, Romney +7.

Edit: All of these polls are an improvement from the previous poll minus gallup. We'll find out about that later today.

[cali]

9. I'm looking at state polls.

[vdogg]

16. Other than NH

Obama is up in the important states. The -3 in VA is disappointing but has been negated by a +3 in NC http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021581852. The general trend of the polls today has been favoring Obama, that was my point.

[teabaggersarestupid]

20. Can you post the NC link?

Your link is broken. Thanks

[HockeyMom]

11. Oh, some pundits on MSNBC

are saying Robme will win ALL of the swing states. He has even cut Obama's margin in states like California, NY, and Illinois. Oh, my, the navy blue might they become SWING STATES too?

Think they are real reporters?

[Baitball Blogger]

17. We need get their names and snapshot their quotes.

If they're terribly wrong, they should be run out of the business.

[HockeyMom]

21. Chuck Toad

for one. There is getting to be no difference between Faux and MSNBC.

[HockeyMom]

5. They are jealous because he wasn't THEIR Governor?

So now they can at least have him for THEIR President?

[reformist2]

7. The Warren ads in Boston need to tie in to Obama more.

Most of New Hampshire gets TV from Boston. Ads that promote Warren/Obama together are a win/win.

[cthulu2016]

10. I don't think NH and CO will bounce back to blue

To me the race is Oh, VA, FL, NV, and IA.

(along with defending Wisconsin)

[cali]

13. I disagree. I think Obama will win NH, and will lose VA and FL

win NV, IA and Ohio.

[cthulu2016]

15. I agree with all of that... except NH

And fortunately, in that scenario NH doesn't matter to the outcome... so it's all good.

[Cali_Democrat]

23. You guys are both very wrong

Obama will win OH, NH, VA, FL, IA, CO and NV.

[cali]

25. in my dreams. In reality, indicators don't support that.

I don't see how he wins in FL or VA.

[countingbluecars]

27. Virginia might surprise you.

The GOTV organizing is pretty intense.

[renegade000]

32. and the demographics are in our favor

The significant majority of new voters are in Democratic areas.

[Cali_Democrat]

30. What indicators are you looking at?

RCP average has them tied in VA. This includes Republican operative Scott rASSmussen's poll, yet you don't see how Obama can even win VA?

LOL. Whatever, Debbie.

[Dawgs]

33. Why not Virginia? The only poll that shows a significant lead (+3) for Romney is Rasmussen.

And, I hope, by now, that everyone knows that Rasmussen polls are consistently off by 2-3 points. The rest show it even. There's no reason to think that Obama can't win there, especially considering he's led the entire year in the RCP average.

[Cali_Democrat]

34. Also, a new CNN poll shows Romney only up by 1 in Florida, well within the margin of error

Yet your bogus "indicators" don't support that. YOU don't see how he can win in FL and VA. Pathetic.

THANK GOD you're not making strategic decisions for the campaign. I would hate for them to have someone in their war room spreading doom and gloom about states where they're essentially tied.

Debbie Downer.

[fearnobush]

14. Disagree. CO will be blue this cycle. So will NH

The prez won CO by 9 or 10. NH will come back around. Might not be 6 or 8 but I still see a narrow 1 to 3 pt win there. Co will come in around 3 or 4.

[teabaggersarestupid]

18. Disagree

Obama has a better shot at winning CO than FL.

[amborin]

19. Maggie Hassan needs help:

helping in state races also helps Obama:

https://emilyslist.org/secure/contribute-maggie?et_cid=124089&et_cname=20121018_Hassan_qnd&et_sid=1066019&gs=jJuNa8lu7fWr69cXIcQS2iutBl%2BJt87qRLs0wf35MCgMXm0kJzzDQxl0Q4Fb4Q5E

[ProSense]

22. This poll is after the VP and second debates and

it shows a 7-point swing?

Rasmussen had them tied after the first debate, and showed Obama up a point a day before the second debate.

I'm questioning everything that looks unusual.

Also, the poll before the first debate was actually in August 12, more than two months ago.

NH voters think Obama won debate by 8 pts, still support Romney by 1. Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

WTF?

[cali]

26. c'mon. can you at least be honest with yourself?

you question everything that doesn't fit with your narrative that Obama is running away with this. You flatly denied that the 1st debate had any impact on the race. You claimed that Obama won it. You refuse to look at any poll as legitimate that doesn't fit with with your frame.

[ProSense]

28. You want me to join you in spreading doom and gloom? I'm

also questioning Iowa, which shows the exact same numbers as NH.

Romney leads Obama 49-48 in Iowa as well, although Obama does have a 66/32 early vote lead there

Iowa voters think Obama won this week's debate 45/36, similar to New Hampshire, but not having a big impact on the head to head.

PPP is the only poll showing Romney ahead in Iowa.

Polling from present back to September 26:

NBC/WSJ/Marist +8
WeAskAmerica +3
ARG tie
Rasmussen Reports +2
WeAskAmerica +4
Des Moines Register +4
PPP (D) +7

[ProSense]

29. Oh, and

You flatly denied that the 1st debate had any impact on the race. You claimed that Obama won it. You refuse to look at any poll as legitimate that doesn't fit with with your frame.

...so did Howard Dean. Still, it's interesting that you're attributing your doom and gloom scenarios to the first debate, but now extending it to polls post the second debate in which Obama roundly kicked Mitt's ass.

Hope you enjoyed that.

[Daniel537]

31. Nate Silver was right. The polls have stopped making sense.

Maybe people are just more schizophrenic this year? Lol, who knows. Lets just get as many of our people out as possible and let the chips fall where they may.