Artificial Intelligence

[OLDMDDEM]

A friend of mine and I have been having a discussion about Artificial Intelligence. Over the course of the next few decades, many of the jobs we claim are being done by the average worker, will be done by artificial intelligence. Car manufacturing as well as other types of manufacturing. Grocery checkout. If this is indeed going to happen, what happens to those whose jobs are being displaced? Fortunately, I am retired and living comfortably. What I see is more people not working, Social Security, as well as Medicare and Medicaid, being bled to death.

It looks bleak to me, but will not affect me like it will those younger than me. I feel bad for those behind me.

[Delphinus]

1. Well,

it reminds me of the story of Henry Ford and the production line. If there are no folks with livable wages to purchase things, who will buy what is built?

[OLDMDDEM]

3. I agree with you

Yes. How does this work out for the better? I can't see where it does.

[lagomorph777]

8. Ford's highly automated (for its day) production line hired thousands of workers.

Without that automation, it would have required many times more workers - and would have been as unworkable as Ford's hand-crafting competitors who he wiped out.

[OLDMDDEM]

13. I remember

seeing on 60 minutes several years ago a Hyundai factory in the south. It was fully automated. It was actually kind of weird to watch as the automobile was beign shown start to finish.

[lagomorph777]

16. Automation is what makes that automobile affordable for an average person.

Assuming that person has a job somewhere.

[OLDMDDEM]

17. Good point

What are the jobs that will be available?

[lagomorph777]

28. The fancier the machines get, the fancier the machines' maintainers have to become.

...with corresponding higher wages. Of course, there are fewer of them. There will be lots of jobs in creative fields. As manufacturing becomes more flexible, people can design products for very small runs - even fully customized products.

I think there will be tons of jobs in greening the economy. Building and maintaining renewable energy (wind, solar, tidal, wave, and storage systems such as batteries, flywheels, stored hydro). Recycling will be relatively manual labor intensive for a long time. Urban farming (e.g. indoors or rooftop) will fill niche luxury markets and require workers.

Space is about to explode. Hopefully not literally (*see Kessler syndrome, or the movie Gravity). Rockets will go into mass production, and it takes thousands of people to fly them and operate all the ancilliary processes. Space mining is going to transform the economy. I think the biggest source of jobs will be people to go and collect space junk. If we don't start doing that now, we'll lose access to space for the next few centuries, and bye-bye interplanetary economy.

[OLDMDDEM]

31. Hmmm

You make a good point on greening jobs. I hadn't thought of that. The space end of your response is beyond me, but I guess is a very real possibility.

[Sherman A1]

2. This coming situation makes the case for UBI

We need a universal basic income in this country to provide an economic world that doesn't start at zero for our citizens.

[OLDMDDEM]

6. Thank you

That makes total sense to me. Many people would be left out in the cold with nowhere to turn for help.

[Irish_Dem]

7. Exactly, if AI takes over jobs, how else will people pay bills?

[Kablooie]

19. The problem with UBI is what do people do,with their lives?

If you are just living with nothing to do all day everyday, how do you remain sane?
People need some purpose in their lives even if it is just to earn money to live.

[Voltaire2]

23. if working a shit job is your purpose, not working a shit job seems like a higher purpose.

[Sherman A1]

39. I completely disagree

First “the problem” with UBI is that it has not been implemented not that it will suddenly make us lazy couch potatoes hooked on video games.

A UBI will never alone be enough to sustain oneself in and of itself. Even the $1K per month proposed by Andrew Yang is hardly entertaining to live on. What it will do is provide a supplement to better our lifestyles allowing us to perhaps work fewer hours per week and pursue other interests, educational opportunities, volunteer work or creative outlets. It will lift the shackles of economic burden off many, reducing stress along with infusing money into local economies increasing demand for goods and services very likely increasing employment opportunities.

[Kablooie]

40. I agree with all that but the original discussion was that AI could eliminate so many jobs...

that many won't be able to find work anymore.

For example self driving, electric trucks could eliminate most truck driver jobs along with all the gas stations, restaurants and hotels that are supported by them. It's hard to see how all those people could find other jobs that pay as well and fit their abilities.

[Sherman A1]

41. With a UBI it will not be as necessary to find work as you describe

those losing the jobs you mentioned (and it will not be overnight that they all disappear) will be able to use the UBI to transition to other work. As mentioned in my previous response demand for local goods and services will increase as people will simply have more money. That increase demand will provide jobs. Because someone drives a truck does not mean that they cannot do or learn other things. During my years of working as a grocery store receiving clerk I found many truck drivers to be some of the sharpest folks around. Some did fit the stereotype of the beer bellied loud mouth, but very, very few.

[kcr]

42. A UBI doesn't mean a complete erasure of all work

It means the separation of paid work as the sole means of support. We've been conditioned to believe our self-worth is measured only by our paid work. That any pursuit that doesn't garner a paycheck is worthless and meaningless. This is rooted in an even deeper, more sinister belief that poverty and starvation need to exist as a motivator, otherwise most people would do nothing. But this simply isn't true. People are indeed motivated to find things that interest them because they would be bored otherwise. Independently wealthy people manage to do just fine, for instance. Funny how no one argues they'd be happier working 60+ hours a week in a low-level, mind-numbingly boring job simply because it would earn them a paycheck and they'd feel more self worth.

[Irish_Dem]

4. Certain fields are in great demand.

A friend of mine is a plumber and he says that most plumbers are older and going to start retiring.
Young people don't want to go into the field. However it is becoming a very lucrative profession, and young people could earn some good money.

[OLDMDDEM]

11. Thank you

So people may not have a choice. If they wish to work, they may have to take what is available, like being a plumber.

[Irish_Dem]

14. Quite a few of the hands on trades are in demand. Also professions, health care, etc.

I think there are still some jobs AI will not be able to do.

[lagomorph777]

5. Automation has been replacing jobs for 250 years.

Those jobs have eventually been superseded by other, different jobs. Otherwise, we'd be at near zero percent employment right now. The new jobs are generally less dirty, dull, and dangerous than the old ones. They also require more training and education.

Some jobs won't be replaceable for a very long time. Health care workers, for example. I don't mean the doctors - AI will do a better job than most doctors. I mean the most dirty, dull, and dangerous jobs in health care are also very difficult to automate.

[OLDMDDEM]

9. Interesting

You make a good point. Jobs have been replaced over the past many years. New jobs pop up. Should employers that change to AI be required to retrain, or help pay for education, so the employee can do other things?

[lagomorph777]

12. No, I think education is a government responsibility.

Employers are never going to do a good job of training outgoing workers.

[OLDMDDEM]

15. That makes sense.

Free tuition at the college nearest you. I can see that.

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

10. Gig workers will be shuffled off to more Amazon mega warehouses to pick up boxes that robots drop

I just watched a PBS special on the Future of Work

[OLDMDDEM]

18. I guess

that's where this all ends up. I spent 50 years in accounting. I have watched over the past ten years the shift to accounting in India and like countries because the labor is so cheap. Will accounting go the way of AI?

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

30. Computers already replaced most of the numbers jobs on Wall Street Exchange, outsourcing is huge too

...overseas labor is cheaper.

The days of a guaranteed 9-5, lifetime steady income job with retirement and benefits are a fading dream

[OLDMDDEM]

32. Sad but true. nt.

[MichMan]

20. Going to be a very exciting and rewarding career for those who design, program & repair them

[Voltaire2]

22. very few people are required for that.

[Voltaire2]

21. UBI

We need to rethink the purpose of work. We also need to consider how an economic system that is based on exponential growth functions in a world that needs to limit growth and promote sustainability. These issues are very much related.

But we, we in the this fucked up country, we aren't going to do anything because one political party has its fucking head up its fucking ass.

[OLDMDDEM]

24. I agree with you

Very true. It's all about them, not about the whole of the country.

[Klaralven]

25. AI won't affect manufacturing much - it is already less than 9% of employment

AI will impact Wholesale and Retail Trade (23%), Finance and Real Estate (5.7%), Educational Services (9.7%), and especially Professional Services (28.9%).
See https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/employment-by-industry-1910-and-2015.htm

A lot of the remote work that has been done over the past year is in the latter category.

Any job that can be done by a person remotely at the end of a communications channel is a candidate for being done by a sufficiently capable AI server.

One example is medical transcription, which was impacted first by international outsourcing, but which is now being automated entirely by improved speech to text systems.

[OLDMDDEM]

29. Interesting

Thank you for sending the link. I can see that my subject is on the minds of many. It should be and I guess job status will change over time to fit the situation.

[Binkie The Clown]

26. Back in the 1960s I read science fiction stories about the coming utopia when...

... all the work is done by robots and computers, and humans are free to enjoy a luxurious existence free from financial worries, because nobody had to work for a living. It always stuck me that getting from here to there was going to be an incredibly painful process.

Will we ever reach that utopia? Nope. The climate will crush industrial civilization before we ever get the chance.

[OLDMDDEM]

27. You make a good point

There is not enough caring about the climate even though it has changed plenty in the past many years during my lifetime. It's not getting better and can only get worse.

[lagomorph777]

33. What a beautiful world this will be

Standing tough under stars and stripes, we can tell
This dream's in sight
You've got to admit it
At this point in time that it's clear
The future looks bright

On that train, all graphite and glitter
Undersea by rail
Ninety minutes from New York to Paris
Well, by '76 we'll be A-OK

What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free

Get your ticket to that wheel in space while there's time
The fix is in
You'll be a witness to that game of chance in the sky
You know we've got to win

Here at home we'll play in the city
Powered by the sun
Perfect weather for a streamlined world
There'll be spandex jackets, one for everyone

What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free

On that train, all graphite and glitter
Undersea by rail
Ninety minutes from New York to Paris
(More leisure for artists everywhere)

A just machine to make big decisions
Programmed by fellas with compassion and vision
We'll be clean when their work is done
We'll be eternally free, yes, and eternally young

What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free

Donald Fagen, "IGY"

[Klaralven]

37. New Frontier

Yes we're gonna have a wingding
A summer smoker underground
It's just a dugout that my dad built
In case the reds decide to push the button down
We've got provisions and lots of beer
The key word is survival on the new frontier

Introduce me to that big blond
She's got a touch of Tuesday Weld
She's wearing Ambush and a French twist
She's got us wild and she can tell
She loves to limbo, that much is clear
She's got the right dynamics for the new frontier

Well I can't wait 'til I move to the city
'Til I finally make up my mind
To learn design and study overseas

Have you got a steady boyfriend
Cause honey I've been watching you
I hear you're mad about Brubeck
I like your eyes, I like him too
He's an artist, a pioneer
We've got to have some music on the new frontier

Well I can't wait 'til I move to the city
'Til I finally make up my mind
To learn design and study overseas

Let's pretend that it's the real thing
And stay together all night long
And when I really get to know you
We'll open up the doors and climb into the dawn
Confess your passion your secret fear
Prepare to meet the challenge of the new frontier

[lagomorph777]

38. Oh, that's awesome! I need to go back and listen to that album again.

I'd forgotten that one. He really captured an era, didn't he?

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

34. Utopian living, for a select few! Maybe if some disease comes along and wipes out a few billion...

[panader0]

35. I know at least a couple of people with artificial intelligence.

But seriously, AI will take many jobs in the future.

[OLDMDDEM]

36. Thank you

I know a few people that way also. And yes, AI will take many jobs in the future.