Poll shows big majority of Latinos oppose Newsom recall

[hlthe2b]

https://www.axios.com/california-recall-gavin-newsom-latino-voters-f1487c57-2514-4a96-b7fb-137e700bf8b0.html

California voters' growing opposition to recalling Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom is driven heavily by Latinos, according to new polling in the closing days of the election.

The big picture: A Public Policy Institute of California poll released last week found 66% of likely Latino voters saying they won't support the recall and just 27% saying they would — a shift from previous polls that suggested a tight race.

Hispanics are the largest ethnic group in California, comprising 39% of the state's population and about 28% of registered voters.

Why it matters: If Latino voters were to abandon Newsom it would serve as a major warning for Democrats trying to flip Texas, hang on in the 2022 midterm elections and reset after Donald Trump's gains among some Latino voters last November. On the other hand, if Latino voters help save Newsom, it may empower advocacy groups who can turn out the vote to make more demands.

By the numbers: The survey found about 58% of all likely voters, and 52% of white voters, oppose the recall.

Only 39% of all likely voters surveyed supported removing Newsom from office, and 53% of Californians approve of the way Newsom is handling his job overall. The poll surveyed 1,706 California adult residents from August 20–29, 2021 and had a sampling error is ±3.4%.

Newsom's stronger support from Latino respondents in the PPIC poll is noteworthy. An Emerson College/Nexstar poll last month found the 54% of Latinos actually favored recalling Newsom, and Mexican American political activists feared Newsom was failing to sufficiently engage Latino voters.

[11 Bravo]

1. We can tell it's not going well for the Repugs, because Fox"news" is already whining about ...

VOTER FRAUD!!!!!!

Not a shred of evidence, mind you, but plenty of accusatory bullshit.

[SharonClark]

2. Now they need to vote.

[frazzled]

4. Indeed, according to New York Times, only 17% have returned ballots

to date (article posted today). Also, the numbers aren't as rosy--evenly split according to another poll. I'm confused.

The political power of Latinos has never been stronger in California.

They are the largest ethnic group in the state and make up roughly 30 percent of registered voters. They have propelled Democratic victories in California for decades, helping the party win supermajorities in both houses of the State Legislature, where Latino senators and Assembly members hold powerful positions and pass some of the most immigrant-friendly legislation in the country.

But as Gov. Gavin Newsom tries to prevail in a recall election in a matter of days, the very Latino voters he is relying on appear to be disengaged and ambivalent about the prospect of his being ousted from office.

In 2018, exit polls showed Mr. Newsom with support from roughly two-thirds of all Latinos. Now, polling suggests Latinos are almost evenly split on the recall. And so far, just 17 percent of all registered Latino voters have mailed in their ballots, compared with 31 percent of white voters, according to Political Data Inc., a Sacramento-based research group.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/us/latinos-california-recall-election.html

[brush]

3. The fat lady is clearing her throat, republicans. Get your "the recall was stolen"...

messages ready for when results are announced.