Manchin Wants $2 Trillion Cut from Reconciliation Bill

[applegrove]

Manchin Wants $2 Trillion Cut from Reconciliation Bill

September 7, 2021 at 9:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 106 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2021/09/07/manchin-wants-2-trillion-cut-from-reconciliation-bill/

"SNIP.....

“Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has privately warned the White House and congressional leaders that he has specific policy concerns with President Biden’s $3.5 trillion social spending dream — and he’ll support as little as $1 trillion of it,” Axios reports.

“At most, he’s open to supporting $1.5 trillion.”

“Manchin also has committed to paying for any new spending with new revenue, which will limit the ultimate size of any final package.”

......SNIP"

[OAITW r.2.0]

1. OK, Mitch. nt

[Bev54]

26. Someone earlier posted that Manchin flew into Lexington KY

today or yesterday, no doubt to meet with Moscow Mitch and the dems need to call him out on that to his face.

[Trueblue1968]

38. i want Manchin CUT FROM THE SENATE !!!!!

[LetMyPeopleVote]

46. So you want MoscowMitch to be Senate Majority Leader?

[jimfields33]

49. It would still be 2.5 trillion between the two bills

That’s a lot of money for infrastructure. Much needed too.

[msongs]

2. earlier du post said manchin's privet plane was spotted in kentucky nt

[maxsolomon]

3. LOL, he now defines what is now possible in American govt.

look at me, i'm the most important man in DC.

[MFM008]

4. this guy has more power

than a president
than a senate
than the house
one lousey clown from a hillbilly state.
Dont say hes a democrat please.

[LymphocyteLover]

6. problem is we only hold the majority because of him

[GregariousGroundhog]

30. Yeah. A trillion may be the best we can get

The Senate could potentially punt some of the costs down at the individual states. For example, the federal government could implement a program where they cap how much a family has to be pay for child care and then pay 100% of the cost for families making less than 200% of the poverty level. They could then offer to extend the program to 300% if a state pays in 20% of those costs and to 400% poverty level if a state pays 50% of those costs.

It's not an ideal solution, since states like Florida and Texas will probably refuse to pay in. It may be the best path forward though.

[Bettie]

42. Do we really hold the majority if he's flying to consult with Turtle Mitch every couple of days?

This way, Mitch still calls the shots and gets to say he's not responsible for anything. Win/Win.

[LymphocyteLover]

53. It sucks but at least Schumer can control the floor and we can approve judges

and set the basic agenda even if we can't pass everything we want to

[LymphocyteLover]

5. Jesus Christ what a fucking asshole

Goddammit-- what a selfish self-centered POS

[Hoyt]

7. Will be interesting to see what he thinks should be cut.

[Bev54]

27. No doubt it will be everything to do with climate change

seeing he is bought and paid for by coal and oil companies.

[Celerity]

8. details from Axios

Scoop: Manchin backs as little as $1 trillion of Biden's $3.5 trillion plan

https://www.axios.com/scoop-manchin-backs-as-little-as-1-trillion-of-bidens-35-trillion-plan-91d079e0-84a7-4f8f-94d4-212827a61339.html

[FBaggins]

9. Sounds like the final number will be about 2.25 trillion

At least there’s now a good chance of a second bill.

[Demsrule86]

34. I can live with that.

[Celerity]

40. How do you come up with that $2.25 trillion figure?

[FBaggins]

51. Entirely out of thin air

I haven’t evaluated which pieces of the budget he would object to (climate stuff certainly) and the price tag for each. I just assume that when he announces an initial bargaining position there he’s leaving himself some wiggle room from what he’s actually prepared to accept. I assume the same thing with the $3.5 figure. So my initial guess is about halfway between the extreme figures.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Good

And now we’re negotiating.

[Doremus]

13. Yeah with our OWN caucus. Chewing off our own leg.

[Demsrule86]

35. That is politics and was always this way.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

47. The alternative could be for Manchin to flip parties

Here is some history https://www.cop.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Majority_Minority_Leaders.htm

27 From January 3 to January 20, 2001, with the Senate divided evenly between the two parties, the Democrats held the majority due to the deciding vote of outgoing Democratic Vice President Al Gore. Senator Thomas A. Daschle served as majority leader at that time. Beginning on January 20, 2001, Republican Vice President Richard Cheney held the deciding vote, giving the majority to the Republicans. Senator Trent Lott resumed his position as majority leader on that date. On May 24, 2001, Senator James Jeffords of Vermont announced his switch from Republican to Independent status, effective June 6, 2001. He announced that he would caucus with the Democrats, giving the party a one-seat advantage and changing control of the Senate back to the Democrats. Thomas A. Daschle again became majority leader on June 6, 2001. Trent Lott announced on December 20, 2002, that he would not continue as Republican leader in the 108th Congress. William Frist was elected Republican leader on December 23, 2002 and began service on January 7, 2003.

[vercetti2021]

11. Get bent Manchin

[dweller]

17. I think in the true definition of the word

he already is …
🤨

✌🏻

[LonePirate]

12. I am almost to the point where I want the House progressives to kill both bills to say FU to him

I am sick and tired of his bullshit. He cannot win his next election in the reddest state in the union and he should be in no position to tank the agenda of the President from his own party. Fuck him.

[Demsrule86]

36. Seriously, you want to walk away with nothing. That kind of attitude is why we get very little...

you have to be willing to compromise.

[LonePirate]

39. Why should he receive his priorities when real Democrats cannot receive theirs? Fuck him.

He could have gotten everything he wanted at any point in his career as his priorities are very Republican friendly. Dems have not had control of the White House and Congress since 2009-2011 and he wants to do next to nothing. I'm sorry but there is no room to compromise with Democrats like him. If he wants to tank the left's agenda, why should the left support his agenda?

[Demsrule86]

60. Because it is good for the country and the party ...we need this bill

And we will surely put McConnell back in power if we walk away from these bills...a compromise is needed. This is how politics works. You want a truly liberal Congress then help elect more Democrats. If we increase our numbers we can go back and get more...always easier to build on something than start from scratch. This bill has important reforms for the ACA...for example, it creates a national plan for those living in states that have refused to expand Medicare. That is life-saving. Do you really want to walk away from some good policy just to show Manchin? I doubt Manchin would care anyway.

[LonePirate]

61. What do you think gets cut to reach Manchin's cheapness? ACA reforms like that.

If you want to compromise with him, you have to sacrifice pretty much every single Democratic priority in order to placate his nonsensical reservations. He may be trying to promote his Republican friendly bonafides in his heavily Republican state; but he has no chance to win re-election and he knows that. We should not be catering to him. Put him in record for tanking the bill and make him suffer the blowback.

[Demsrule86]

65. I don't know but whatever survives is more than we have if we walk away and the negotiations are

still in progress. Did you really think, it was going pass for the entire amount? I would consider it a miracle if it does...hope it does. But we need to pass what we can.

[oasis]

14. The well-to-do and their political lackeys are supposed to live comfortably.

All others have to get by the best way they can.

[lagomorph777]

15. And I want something cut, too.

Loreena Bobbit might do it.

[Corgigal]

16. Has he seen West Virginia lately?

Travel through Huntington and give the people who live there the damn basics. Some jobs would be nice too, what is wrong with this guy?

[Deuxcents]

19. Yes.. that was my first thought

A few times ago.. he represents one of the poorest states n in need of infrastructure, schools,etc. Meanwhile, he n his daughter making a fortune off their pharma connections. What a statesman.

[FalloutShelter]

18. By ending the Afghan war

We are saving $300 million a day...at that rate it will pay for the infrastructure bill in less than a month. We can afford nice things.

[FBaggins]

21. Your math is s a bit off

Closer to ten years at that pace. And the spending for Afghanistan hasn’t been at that pace for years.

[onenote]

25. Actually, closer to 30 years.

$300 million times 30 days = $9 billion. $9 billion times 12 months = $108 billion. $108 billion times ten years= $1.08 trillion. To get to $3.5 trillion...multiply ten by three.

[FalloutShelter]

29. Sorry...that's what happens when

A dyslexic does math. I am totally fired.

[FBaggins]

37. The infrastructure bill is $1trillion

3.5 is the reconciliation bill

[onenote]

23. I think you need to check your math.

$300 million times 30 days = $9 billion. To cover $3.5 trillion with $300 million per day savings would take a very long time.

[madville]

20. How much inflation do we want?

The more we spend, the less the dollar is worth. The economics are simple, do we want to chase that rabbit and own it politically?

[Fiendish Thingy]

24. That is false, the more we *borrow* can impact the value of the dollar, not spending.

Spending can actually stimulate the economy.

However, the reconciliation bill is expected to have tax hikes on the rich included, reducing the amount borrowed.

The Fed is expected to start hiking interest rates sometime next year, and that alone will put a damper on inflation.

Inflation is not a legitimate reason to shrink the infrastructure bill.

[madville]

28. How do you spend money you don't have without "borrowing" it

Social Security checks are set to increase 6.2% due to INFLATION affecting the CPI because of the massive spending the last year and a half, it’s a real thing and going to be a problem going forward.

[Fiendish Thingy]

43. Repealing the Trump tax cuts and increasing corporate rates will generate billions per year

No money will be borrowed to cover the SS COLA; the increase does make the date when the fund can’t pay 100% of benefits occur a year sooner, which means less time congress can kick the can down the road (the problem goes away if the cap is lifted on the threshold for withholding).

Krugman feels the current inflation is transitory in nature, and will be resolved by the strong economy and rate hikes next year.

Maybe you’re too young to remember the double digit inflation of the late 70’s/early 80’s, peaking at 13.55% in 1980…that’s when a standard vanilla passbook savings account paid 5% interest, compounded daily. While the conservative political rhetoric will reach hair-on-fire proportions, we aren’t going to see that level of inflation.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. Let him state what he would cut on the floor of the senate, not behind closed doors

And the bill will generate plenty of new revenue, from taxes on the rich.

I say dare Manchin to sabotage the bill, do not yield like Obama did to the Blue Dogs on the ACA in 2009. Hold firm and go big.

[Efilroft Sul]

31. I agree. And Democrats should hold town meetings in WV to tout the benefits of the bill.

Get the people behind it, tell them what they stand to gain, ask them to contact their senators to demand the bill is passed in full.

Drink his milkshake.

[madville]

32. We've entered a financial arena where the rich don't matter

The rich don’t have enough money to cover these debts even if you took it all. I would recommend investing in inflation hedges, reliable stocks, real estate, and physical (like precious metals). It’s going to get ugly the more we spend.

[Fiendish Thingy]

44. My diverse and balanced portfolio has done quite nicely both short and long term

I’m much more worried about the economic impact of COVID and the death of democracy than I am about short term inflation.

[madville]

56. I'm not worried personally, I have real estate and my portfolio

Is up over 30% since the beginning of 2020. Also have a military pension and VA disability rolling in. People struggling, making $15 an hour though, when grocery, fuel, etc go up significantly, it has a huge impact on them and they typically blame the folks in charge at the time.

[Fiendish Thingy]

57. So when people making $15/hr suddenly have a child tax credit, free childcare...

The chance to go to community college for free to improve their skills, and the opportunity to apply for a $40/hr green job, will they give credit to the people in charge who made it happen?

I think they will- that’s why the GOP and their pals Manchin and Sinema and the Sabotage Squad in congress are trying so hard to kill the $3.5 trillion bill…they don’t care about deficits and inflation, they care about progressive policies becoming overwhelmingly popular.

Again, once rates begin to rise next year, we’ll see inflation settle down.

Looks like both our portfolios are doing well; I don’t expect these mammoth gains to continue forever- we’re due for a correction of 10-15%, and when rates begin to rise, that will also have a dampening effect, but as I said, it will be good news for consumer prices and especially for folks at the low end of the wage scale.

[madville]

58. Where are these $40 an hour green jobs gonna be?

I want to apply lol j/k.

[Fiendish Thingy]

62. All over- solar and wind farms, as well as rebuilding roads and bridges, installing broadband

Biden has said the bill must require the jobs that are created pay the “prevailing” wage (I.e. union wages).

[madville]

63. Sounds like paradise

We’ll see if any of it actually materializes.

[Baitball Blogger]

33. An intentional sabotaging of Biden's recovery.

Just like what Susan whatsername did to Obama.

[MerryBlooms]

41. Yep. You'll notice the concern amps way up about inflation and the debt,

whenever there's a Democratic President. We watched food prices here in southern OR rise under trump, but we were told, no, nationally they weren't, so what we saw locally didn't matter. Now, all of a sudden, people on SS are getting a raise to combat the rise we saw for a couple years, and some folks are super concerned... No concern folks might be able to eat properly, more concerned about their stock portfolios.

[Celerity]

48. Do not forget that $2.05 trillion was already stripped out of Biden's proposal for the hard

infrastructure bi-partisan bill. The total new infrastructure spending is only $550 billion (the other $650 billion is just renewal of old already-passed spending programmes under Trump and Moscow McTurtle).

The Infrastructure Plan: What’s In and What’s Out (it's brutal)

Biden's original plan:



What was left after they took a 2 trillion USD hatchet to it




They already chopped almost EIGHTY percent of actual new spending out of the hard infrastructure bill

and now Manchin wants to chop another almost 60 to 70% out of the even bigger bill, one that needs ZERO Rethugs votes to pass


The total new spending on Biden's original 2 bill proposals (hard and human) was $6.1 trillion.

IF Manchin and Sinema stick to their guns and chop out $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion of of the reconciliation bill, then you are looking at a total new spend for both bills of only $1.55 trillion to $2.05 trillion instead of $6.1 trillion.

That is a truly massive 2/3rds to 3/4ers total reduction in new spending, and the vast majority will be from the parts the largest single Democratic caucus in the House (the 96 person-strong Progressive Caucus) all desperately wanted, especially things to address climate change and to help working class Americans. Pete DeFazio, the Chair of the House Transportation Committee has been very, very unhappy for ages about what the bi-partisan Senators did.

I can see many of the 96 members of the Progressive Caucus (far beyond just The Squad) going bonkers if Manchin and Sinema (as the major Dem players in the 2 guttings) succeed in stripping out 4 to 4.5 trillion USD between the 2 bills. It may put both bills at risk, and then all hell will break loose between the 2 sides (96 House progs versus Manchin and Sinema in the Senate, plus the 10 renegade conservadem Problems Solver types in the House).

There is a way, IF Pelosi can pare down the dissenting progs to say 10, 20, maybe even 30 and THEN enough frontline 'psuedo-moderate' Rethugs vote for the bi-partisan bill only, in order to pass it. There is a problem (of course there is, lol) with that as well, as the House Rethugs (plus the fuckstick Trump) are going full bore to try and threaten any and all House Rethugs who may vote for the bi-partisan bill:

GOP pressure to block bipartisan infrastructure bill builds in the House

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/07/politics/bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-republican-support/index.html

Speaker Pelosi is DEFFO trying to make 10,000 angels dance on the head of a pin. She is probably the only person on the planet (zero hyperbole) who can get both bills passed in the House.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

45. So far, this is all just how the sausage is made.

I'm not going to react to every rumor and story. Every week something new is going to sink the bills-- remember how hard it was to get the original American Rescue Plan passed? And then how the bipartisan hard infrastructure bill was doomed? And just two weeks ago how nine moderate Dems were going to sink the budget resolution?

There will be a lot of public and private negotiation in the weeks/months to come. I'm going to wait until things settle down a little.

[ecstatic]

50. Does manchin understand that times have changed and nobody gives a shit

about federal spending anymore? They never did. The tea party bullshit was just that--bullshit. So which group does he think he's representing right now?

At least Biden's plan will inject more into the economy than tfg's ridiculous border wall or the Afghanistan war.

[Jspur]

55. He represents his rich

donors. Manchin has been bought and paid for by rich donors. I think it's pretty obvious now with him holding up this bill that he's working for them.

[DFW]

52. I wish he'd just come out and say

“I’m voting Republican in this one.”

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

54. Somehow, we've got to elect enough Democrats to the Senate to make him irrelevant.

He's going to deliberately help kill our party and end democracy in the US..

[jalan48]

59. He's representing his constituents-The Fossil Fuel Industry.

[Takket]

64. So put a 3.5 trillion tax on the ultra rich and biggest companies

Not that complicated. We should be doing this anyway!!!