Time to pay attention again folks in Texas and Louisiana -UPDATE - now Tropical Storm Nicholas

[malaise]

Last edited Sun Sep 12, 2021, 11:45 AM - Edit history (3)

Nicholas will NOT strengthen further but has lots of rain


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over Newfoundland, Canada.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level
trough. Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are
expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the
coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development of this system
will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over
water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the
western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through
the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts
will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
westward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[texasfiddler]

1. Wow the consensus path goes right over my place. Thanks for posting!

The eye of Harvey went over us. Maybe this one will too

[malaise]

2. Early days

Things will be clearer by Monday - prepare and stay safe

[Roy Rolling]

4. We just got power back from Ida

Thanks for the heads up. The Cat-4 Ida has forever changed the coast parishes, with luck this one won’t bring anyone else that degree of devastation.

[malaise]

5. Glad for you - you should be spared this time - latest

[crickets]

6. Thanks, malaise!

I do check NOAA on my phone at least once a day, but your weather updates are much more informative than a quick glance at the phone app. You keep us on our toes and it is greatly appreciated!

[malaise]

7. You're welcome - these storms usually reach us first

so I have to pay attention.
It's peak season so I'm watching what's just come off the coast of the big continent and keeping an eye on what's coming up through Central America. As we approach late September and October, those affect the Northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico folks.

[crickets]

8. Understood, and good on you for paying such close attention.

We don't have it as bad as you do, but living not far above the FL panhandle means hurricane season is always a bit tense, especially in recent years. I'm hoping the rest of the season somehow passes us all by.

[malaise]

9. From NOAA 8.00am update

?202109121228

[LeftInTX]

10. I listened to Levi's YouTube...it's gonna be mostly a rainmaker

Unfortunately, rain tends to fall east of the storm and SE Louisiana doesn't need any right now.

There is sheer on the NW side of the low and it's pushing the precip to the NE. Looks like New Orleans could get rain today.

Gulf of Mexico Satellite:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=ir

[url=http://postimg.cc/LJNkB37s][img][/img][/url]

I'm thinking there could be flooding in Houston and W Louisiana.

[malaise]

12. We should have a clearer picture later this morning but I think you're right

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

11. Just looks like a rain blob, not much else

[Tommymac]

13. Thanks for this thread.

Take precautions, peeps. You don't want malaise to take her mojo stick after you...

[malaise]

14. Now Tropical Storm Nicholas

The good news - this one will not strengthen - will remain a TS with lots of rain




https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/121459.shtml
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 94.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from
the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Barra el Mezquital northward to the U.S./Mexico border.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the
Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from
north of Port Aransas to High Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

[Solly Mack]

15. I'm in the cone as of now.

Wheeeee


Sigh.

[malaise]

16. You don't need another drop of water

Noooooooooooooooo!

[Solly Mack]

19. We'll see how it goes. Should weaken before it makes it this far.

As long as it sticks to current tracking.

[crickets]

18. Oh, no. You were just starting to dry out from the last one...

[Solly Mack]

20. We got lucky on Ida. Well, up this way anyway. Others, not so much.

Ida kept turning east and missing us.

We'll see how this one goes.