If Obama is doing better in "swing states" than he's doing overall...are they STILL "swing states"?

[Ken Burch]

Has anybody else wondered about this?

[still_one]

1. From whatmI have seen some of these polls are over weighting the south, and the swing states we need

Do point in our favor

[karynnj]

7. Not to mention it seems that even if you weight the South properly,

the President can be ahead in the electoral college while behind in the popular vote. (It also seems that the Gallup LV model is out of line with every other pollster. )

[bigtree]

2. that's the same weirdness as assigning 'tipping point' states

there seems to be a shifting rationale for the indicators.

[MineralMan]

3. No. I don't wonder about it.

In this election, nobody gives a crap about anything but the swing states. So that's all we hear about. Go look at the polls in Massachusetts, to refresh your confidence. Or Minnesota, for that matter. Or New York, or California. Nobody's writing about those.

This year, the election hinges on the swing states. Nobody cares about the ones where we already know who will win. Look at Georgia or Alabama. Nobody gives a solitary crap about those states, which will go overwhelmingly for Romney. They don't matter.

Eleven swing states. That's it. All the ads are there. All the campaigning is there. The whole election revolves around them.

[Revolutionary Girl]

6. Indeed.

I live in Alabama (please pity me), and it's hilarious to see all the Romney signs stuck out on lawns, as if they made some difference and it wasn't always a foregone conclusion that this state's electoral votes would go to Romney.

But the other side is - Obama is still going to win the election, and it wouldn't matter if the ENTIRE STATE (besides me) voted Romney. Their votes are powerless. Just as you say, it makes no difference. So I just smile and let them have their little lawn signs. In a few weeks, they'll be taking them back down again in impotent disgust.

Of course, the fact I live where I do also means that MY vote is completely powerless to help Obama. I can only rely on states and people far away to deliver the victory I'm nonetheless confident is coming.

[morningfog]

4. I prefer the term battleground states.

As far as comparing them to how he's doing overall. The overall is poorly defined. The national polls are essentially meaningless, other than showing possible trends.