This is NOT to start a flame war. I am asking for civility.

[Stinky The Clown]

How to do Democrats get the infrastructure bill(s) over the line to reconciliation?

On the one hand, we have the party's right wing saying okay to the $1.5T hard infrastructure bill but no way to the $3.5T "human infrastructure" package.

On the other hand, we have the party's hard left flank, mainly in the House, saying no to the stand-alone $1.5T unless they also get the $3.5T.

No one wants to blink. The country NEEDS this to pass.

What to do, what to do?

(i have no suggestion for manufacturing an effective silver bullet.)

[Wednesdays]

1. Like Gulliver advised,

crack the egg in the middle.

[Hoyt]

2. Agree, something worthwhile needs to pass. How we get there is going to take

some diplomacy in private.

I’m definitely not counting on having Medicare coverage for a root canal next year.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

10. You're planning on a root canal next year?

Wow. Every root canal I've had (sadly, that's 4) was very much something that had to be done post-haste lol.

[Hoyt]

22. No, was just being stupid. I do need some dental work, but doesn't look like the dental coverage

for Medicare will get very far.

[elleng]

3. They/we've already moved the number down from $6 something to $3.5T.

[questionseverything]

8. 1.5 in infrastructure separate and then 2.9 be almost 5

Good start

[Celerity]

11. the bipartisan bill is not $1.5 trillion, it is $550 billion in new spend, and $650 billion in

renewals of pre-existing programmes, for total of $1.2 trillion. The Senate (Manchin included) bi-partisan group chopped out $2.05 trillion from Biden's original new spend and tax incentive totals of $2.6 trillion. They reduced that by almost 80%

Manchin has started out saying that for the reconciliation bill, (the $3.5 trillion total one) he only is willing to spend $1 to 1.5 trillion. so he is looking to chop another $2 to $2.5 trillion.

There is zero chance we are going to get anywhere near to a $5 trillion total for the 2 bills. Even IF we passed the full $3.5 trillion for the reconciliation package you are only at $4.7, and only $4.05 trillion is new spend. Even if Manchin and Sinema and the 10 renegade conservadems in the House agree to only cut $1 trillion from the 3.5 trillion reconciliation package, you are still looking at $3.7 total spend, and $3.05 trillion in new spend.

That is a massive reduction from what Biden's original proposal were, which totalled up to $6.75 trillion ($6.1 trillion in new spend and tax incentives) for the two bills. That is already 3 trillion stripped out, and it is likely to be closer to $3.5 to even $4 trillion (the 96 member strong House progressive caucus will go bonkers with that level of cuts) stripped out in total when both are passed.

Let's say that we somehow end up with only $1 trillion stripped from reconciliation bill (which is going to take an Olympian level of skill from leadership). That leaves basically $3.05 trillion in new spend over 10 years between the 2 bills. $305 billion per year. We spend about FIVE times that per year on the war/security/surveillance state counting all on-budget and off-budget outlays.



https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/spending/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20government%20spent%20%246.55%20trillion.

[fescuerescue]

18. 3.5T does sounds cheap next to $6t

Maybe they should have started at $10T

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. What to do? First, stop listening to pundits and politicians' public comments

First of all the party’s right wing isn’t saying “no way” to the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill - Manchin and Sinema say the price tag is too high, and Tester just said the bill must be paid for (it nearly is). Only Manchin has expressed “doubts” and “concerns” about the energy targets and the impact on fossil fuels, every other Dem Senator has supportive of the bill.

Other than insisting upon the linkage between the bipartisan and reconciliation bills, the progressives have been largely silent, other than expressing general support to pass both bills and support Biden’s agenda.

Meanwhile, Lots is happening behind the scenes, lots of horse trading and negotiations. Manchin’s broadsides are a desperate attempt to craft a media narrative to nudge the committees to make cuts before the drafts come to the floor for a vote, so he won’t be on the spot, and can heartily support each segment of bill as it is added to the final text.

Make no mistake, The sausage is being made as we speak, we just aren’t invited to watch. Instead , we get to see “coming soon” ads for the new Manchin brand sausage or Biden brand sausage…

I expect lots to unfold in the next few weeks- as Bette Davis said, “fasten your seatbelts”…

[Johnny2X2X]

21. +1000

Neither party has been as united as the Dems are right now with this slim a majority in a long time. The media wants to create a narrative that there's huge fractures, there aren't. This is just normal legislation negotiations and posturing.

And this $3.5T deal is absolutely revolutionary for the country, it's full of $3.5T of goodness. It's not going to be stripped of good for the American people unless it is reduced to $0. So we'll end up getting $2.8T or so of awesome instead of $3.5T of awesome, it will still be the most significant bill for progressives since the New Deal.

[tirebiter]

5. Let Manchin know he's not going to get the $4t he wanted

He’ll have to settle for $3.5T.

[Mr.Bill]

6. That's great!

[Demsrule86]

24. He does not care even a little bit...and know he can go over to the GOP at any time.

[The Magistrate]

7. 'Centerist' Types, Sir, Are Just Going To Have To Stand By The Party

When it comes to the push of pikes, the progressives do, even when they are not getting nearly all they want. The centerists, not so much. And they are the ones who will pay the forfeit if what people voted for is not enacted.

[Demsrule86]

16. That is nonsense. You dont walk away from a bill that is ready to go. You want

McCarthy and McConnell back in charge? Those that will lose in the house have agreed to vote for the bill but the Senate cant be pressured. A loss of the House means nothing gets done and we have endless investigations. A compromise needs to be reached. And if we can't, then we pass the infrastructure bill and come back after the midterms.

[The Magistrate]

17. That Is As May Be, Ma'am

But when both sides draw lines, one of the possibilities is that neither will blink.

You seem to be illustrating my point, by placing the onus on the progressive caucus in the House, rather than on centerists in the Senate.

Personally, I would not support either side blowing up the arrangement by which both the 'bipartisan' bill and the full reconciliation bill are passed together. But I do not see why it is up to the progressive caucus to give way, and not the centerist element.

[Demsrule86]

23. And then we get nothing and lose the Senate...you get what you can...that line has drawn since

President Obama was in office. And such an action would destroy President Biden's presidency. You want more liberal legislation, elect more Democrats. But don't turn the Senate and House over to the Republicans. And honestly, the moderates are in a tough spot and don't forget without them, we won't have the House as we will lose their seats. They are in red and moderate districts, It will be difficult. It is easy for those who are deep blue districts to walk away as they come from safe blue seats. I would expect if they were competitive, they might feel differently. But they should consider the consequences will be dire. I believe this is the epitome of cutting off your nose to spite your face. Our Republic may not survive putting the GOP back in charge before 24.

[The Magistrate]

30. That May Happen, Ma'am

The problem is that in the pinch, the moderates gain nothing by 'standing up to the left' when election time rolls around. They do not get any more Republican-leaning votes, and they lose votes from Democrats in their districts or states because their conduct makes the latter wonder if there's any point to voting for them, if they're not going to do what they were voted in to do. The measures moderates seek to water down today are widely popular. They may go down to defeat if they vote for them, they will certainly go down to defeat if they do not.

[Demsrule86]

37. We won't be in power if we don't pass this bill then it doesn't matter...McConnell calls the

shots. We don't have the power to play hardball with either Manchin or Sinema...we need more Democrats and unless we pass at least the bipartisan bill, we are out of here. I hope for both bills but we have a chance in 22 to elect more Democratic Senators and can come back for more maybe if we pass the bipartisan bill. Make no mistake if we don't pass at least the bipartisan bill which has good stuff in it, we are completely screwed for 22 in both the House and the Senate. At that point, like Obama before him, Biden's presidency is essentially over in terms of the policy aspect.

[The Magistrate]

43. We Will Not Be In Power, Ma'am

If the Reconciliation bill and strong voting rights legislation is not passed. The 'bipartisan' bill is just an appetizer, the egg-roll before the Lo Mein.

People want dinner. If all they get is a good appetizer, they'll take it, but they won't think it's enough, and will be neither happy with nor enthusiastic in support of the people who promised but did not actually bring the main course, as ordered.

The fact that 'centerists' will not fully back the Party's program is the greatest obstacle to retaining Democratic majorities in both Senate and House.

[Demsrule86]

50. Are you saying Democrats have learned nothing after 2010 and 2014?

That Democrats want it all even if it is not possible in terms of votes and are willing to put the GOP back in charge if they can't get it all? An appetizer is better than nothing. In 2010 voters angered by Pres. Obama's inability to get a public option for the ACA 'message' voted They drew a line in the sand by God... kind of like today with the reconciliation bill. The result was, we lost the House for eight long years. We accomplished nothing after that in terms of Democratic policy. This allowed House Republicans to destroy Hillary Clinton with endless hearings. They will do the same to president Biden...already I see them going after VP Harris.

We lost the Senate in 2014 and the presidency in 2016 as first Obama and then Hillary were blamed for all sorts of things that were not their fault...thousands of people are dead because of this. Our Republic is on life support. I could understand your point if we had a working 60 vote majority, but we do not. We have a 50 50 senate...that is not even majority without VP Harris's vote. We can't afford to lose a single member including Manchin or Sinema. I would also remind you that without Manchin's vote, the ACA would be gone. He has always come through when needed. Do you believe any GOP replacement would do so? And yet, some must have it immediately. I think that is unreasonable. I think we end up with nothing. I hope that we get both bills...but damn it no matter what we need something.

And I wonder where would we be today if we hadn't passed the ACA even though many thought we should hold out for something better and not pass this 'imperfect bill'. Well the ACA has saved many lives including my daughter's life. And the reconciliation bill has good things in it which will help Americans. We may not get the chance to pass anything if we walk away.

[The Magistrate]

52. That Remains To Be Seen, Ma'am

The question is, are the 'centerists' prospects better if they thwart the desires of people who vote for Democrats in their state or district, or if they fulfill them. It is not clear to me the conventional wisdom aligning with the former course actually proves out. Fortune favors the bold, and it might be better to grasp the nettle and go whole hog with the rest of the Party in these matters today, instead of equivocating and trying to nickel end dime things down to inadequate half-measures difficult to generate enthusiasm for.

[Demsrule86]

53. In general, Centrist do not have the ability to go with progressives on a number of issues if they

wish to be reelected. And right now, we can't spare any of them. This is why we need to elect more Democrats. And moderates rely on independents and Democrats in red or purple states who may or may not agree with progressive Democrats. I will just say this If Democrats need to be enthusiastic in order to show up at the polls and vote Democratic in the midterms and demand with a 50-50 Senate legislation that does not have enough votes be passed as the price of their votes then we will have another wasted opportunity. This is what happened in 2010.

Imagine if President Obama had support and had held the House and the Senate what might have been possible. And not passing the bipartisan bill is just plain spiteful and doesn't help anyone. It doesn't hurt Manchin or Sinema, it hurts the American people who don't get needed road/ bridge repair. Millions voted for bipartisanship in 2020. President Biden ran on it. Abandoning this bill because some think it hurts Manchin or Sinema is foolish And if we do this, McConnel and McCarthy will likely be in charge after the midterms. And that would be a disaster for us all.

And as an aside, I am a boots-on-the-ground Democrat, I vote and work every election. I am getting tired of 'Democrats need this or that to be enthusiastic'. It is this attitude that lost us the House and the Senate during Obama's time and cost Hillary Clinton the election...helping to elect Trump which resulted in the death of 600,000+ Americans. I am not saying you have this attitude Magistrate but those who do need to reconsider. Most in Congress want this bill and to punish them and all Americans because we can't- not won't- pass the bill is just plain wrong. Let's hope we can compromise and pass both bills. But if we can't, pass the Bipartisan bill and come back for more after we win the midterms. I think we have a good chance to add house and Senate seats.

[The Magistrate]

58. Yet They Are The Ones Who Always Go Down To Defeat When Things Turn, Ma'am

They are who the enemy targets, no matter whether they stand by the Party or not. Not standing by the Party gains them nothing --- Republicans will still vote for a Republican, and some Democrats will be so disappointed they won't bother voting at all.

Personally I think the best chance we have is nationalizing the midterms around the bizarre insurrectionism of the Republican party, tying any Republican anywhere to the most outlandish and repulsive figures and policies of that party. In most instances, doing this won't even be unfair. I don't hold with the view it's not enough to give people something to vote against. Rejection of some others is a key part of building group identities, and that is what assembling a bloc of reliable voters amounts to. But I do agree it's best to give voters both something to hate and fear and something of benefit to enjoy. The common behavior of our 'centerists' when we are in the majority blurs both things, and makes campaigning harder everywhere for everyone.

[WHITT]

9. If The Dems

cave to Manchin/Sinema et al, they will be running the show for the rest of Biden's term, and that will likely mean losing the House, the Senate, and the White House, as a sizable chunk of progressives will be asking themselves, why should we go out and vote if our choice is between RightWing Repubs and Repub-Lite?

They need to be smacked-down NOW, and put in their place. They vote no on reconciliation, they get ZERO infrastructure spending for their states. Simple.

[Demsrule86]

14. Baloney. We get a bill passed. Hopefully we get both bills passed. But we get what is possible.

[WHITT]

25. That's

what got us the Repub anti-worker, anti-consumer, corporate, 'bipartisan' infrastructure bill in the Senate. Settle for that with the reconciliation bill and good luck getting a bunch of folks to bother to come out and vote.

[Demsrule86]

39. And what do you suppose McConnell will do when he takes over because if we do what is suggested

here, we will lose the midterms...probably the house and the senate.

[WHITT]

46. Do What?

Is suggested where?

[Demsrule86]

49. If we accomplish nothing and walk away from legislation ready to go...we are going to lose the

mid-terms in the House and probably the Senate as well and McConnell and McCarthy will be in charge which likes means we lose in 24 as well.

[WHITT]

54. Tell That To Manchin & Sinema

[Demsrule86]

57. Why? You think it would matter to them? I don't. But it will matter to us. If we lose in

22, we likely have another wasted Democratic presidency in terms of policy. And we are likely to lose another SCOTUS pick as well. It is cutting off your nose to spite your face if you ask me.

[WHITT]

63. That's On Manchin & Sinema

That's exactly why they need to be dealt with, not caved to.

[Demsrule86]

15. They will run the show until we add more Democrats which wont happen unless we

pass something.

[fescuerescue]

19. It's clear they already do.

How do you think he would vote on a bill that cuts his state out?

[WHITT]

26. Then Nobody Gets Anything

On 'This Week', Sanders said if both bills go down, then both bills go down.

That will be on Manchin & Sinema.

I hope he sticks to his guns. If they cave to them, good luck getting people to come out to vote.

[Demsrule86]

40. This what my Dad called a pissing match. And the truth is we will lose so badly if we do this.

[WHITT]

47. "We Will Lose Badly"

if the Dems cave to Manchin & Sinema et al.

[Demsrule86]

48. No we won't. If we don't get something done, we will lose independents and that seals our doom

in the midterms. I would hope that all Democrats no matter what will vote blue... which is a no-brainer. Any Democrat including Manchin who makes our majority possible is better than any republican.

[WHITT]

55. Good Luck

getting voter enthusiasm after passing a Repub-Lite agenda, instead of what the Dems campaigned on.

[Demsrule86]

56. The famous enthusiasm argument...have heard it often. I am always enthused to vote for

any Democrat as having the Republicans in charge is always a disaster. And I fear for our Republic if we put McConnell and McCarthy back in charge in 22. If you consider every bad thing that has happened in the last 20 or so years, it began with 'enthusiasm or lack there of'...Gore's loss, Kerry's loss, Obama's loss in 10 and 14, and Hillary Clinton's loss in 16 which resulted in a 6-3 SCOTUS. If we lose the Senate next year because some don't show up, we likely lose another SCOTUS pick as Breyer will likely retire in the near future one way or the other.

How many Americans are dead in Bush's wars? How many have fully recovered from the economic debacle at the end of Bush's term? How many are Americans died because of Trump's election? I would hope some have learned from history on this matter.

[WHITT]

62. What A Load Of Gibberish

[Demsrule86]

64. Sorry...I would crawl over broken glass to vote for a Democrt...I vote in all races too...and work

both local and national elections...if others don't start doing this, we won't have a republic. I don't think what I posted from Gore through Clinton is gibberish...it happened. GREENS...get republicans elected every year.

[StarfishSaver]

20. How does withholding infrastructure money from their constituents "smack them down and put them in

their place"?

And how will that get the bill passed or help increase Democratic numbers in the Senate?

[WHITT]

27. It's Called Leverage

WV needs infrastructure money more than any other state.

[StarfishSaver]

28. You didn't answer my question. How does this so-called "leverage"

get the bill passed or help increase Democratic numbers in the Senate?

Walk me through the steps of how this will happen ...

[WHITT]

29. You Tell Manchin

if he votes no on the reconciliation bill, WV gets NOTHING. Then he would have to go home and explain WHY he voted against the bill that has tons of money for WV in it, and WHY WV got NOTHING.

The majority if his constituents are in favor of what's in the reconciliation bill.

[Evan1980]

31. If he votes no then the bill doesn't pass.

Nobody will get anything. And I’m sure Manchin can convince the rubes in WV that it wasn’t his fault.

[WHITT]

32. I Don't Think So

A large majority in WV want it.

[StarfishSaver]

33. Chuck Schumer and Democratic leadership know exactly what "leverage" will and won't work on Manchin

And I'm sure they long ago figured out that the kind of threat you are demanding would be counterproductive. That is not a way to get a Senator to vote with the majority - it IS, however, a good way to push a Senator out of the party and, in the process, turn the majority over to the other side.

[WHITT]

35. Manchin

gets huge amounts of desperately needed infrastructure monies for WV by switching parties, HOW?

Stop being silly.

He's been running around the state or doing media interviews that go back to WV bragging about all the infrastructure money/projects he will be bringing back to the state.

[StarfishSaver]

36. So, you know better than Schumer how to handle Manchin?

And you think I'M silly?

[WHITT]

38. You Failed To Answer The Question

[StarfishSaver]

41. You're right. I didn't answer your question.

Because some questions don't deserve an answer. Yours falls into that category.

[WHITT]

45. How Revealing

[ShazzieB]

12. I have no idea how this thing gets passed, but I think Joe, Chuck, and Nancy do.

Last edited Tue Sep 14, 2021, 05:25 AM - Edit history (1)

I think they have a plan, and I'm just going to sit here and watch it play out.

[Hortensis]

59. Right!

[Demsrule86]

13. We pass what we can and try to win the midterms.

[Hortensis]

60. Right. We're about to make a lot of very important things happen,

and in future, with as much power or more, we'll pass more.

All this silliness about drawing lines and not "caving." Abandon our duty to America and all we can do and instead walk away with NOTHING?

The need to cooperate and compromise to reach agreements is built into the legislative process. It IS at the heart of representative government.

[Demsrule86]

65. That is exactly right...and it is not like we have a big majority either.

[Hortensis]

66. We really need to return civics to elementary, middle, and high school.

Future voters really need to understand the basics and principles of how and why representative democracy works. Our founding fathers understood that democracy required an educated populace, and today's RW powers understand just as well that they must have ignorance to suceed.

[JustAnotherGen]

34. Give the Moderates

The SALT Cap Lift, and shift tax burdens onto those earning $400K or more to cover it.


Those of us in swing districts can work the phone on that. It gets to 'tax the rich', 'raises revenue', but takes the burden off of the middle class in blue states who were hurt by the 2017 tax scam. Malinowski (my Congressman) can do that.

[The Magistrate]

44. An Excellent Proposal, Ma'am

[Sogo]

42. If how to pay for it is an issue, then

I hope they're factoring in the money we will save by not being in Afghanistan.....

[fescuerescue]

51. I suspect that the left wants $1.5B

far more than the right once the $1.5B. And we know the right doesn't want the $3.5B at all.


If NOTHING passes, the right wins. This happens if no one agrees.
If the $1.5B passes, the right wins. This happens if both sides agree.
If the $3.5B passes, the left wins. This happens if both sides agree.

Classic politics. Prisoners dilemma.

The Dems need to change the narrative and maybe structure of the bill. Otherwise game theory tells us the outcome.

[Act_of_Reparation]

61. That's above my pay grade.

We have a lot of seasoned, intelligent people supporting our representatives. Surely one of them can figure it out.