Oops...looks like Larry Elder dropped his grifting site a day early.

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

Tweet text:
Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz
The http://ElectElder.com campaign site has a “Stop Fraud” button.

Upon clicking it, visitors are sent to a site called http://StopCAFraud.com that claims he already lost tomorrow’s California special election due to fraud.
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5:19 PM · Sep 13, 2021

[ZonkerHarris]

1. Someone needs to ask Elder to explain Benford's Law...

I'll bet he can't

Benford's law, also called the Newcomb–Benford law, the law of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. The law states that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the leading digit is likely to be small.[1] In sets that obey the law, the number 1 appears as the leading significant digit about 30 % of the time, while 9 appears as the leading significant digit less than 5 % of the time. If the digits were distributed uniformly, they would each occur about 11.1 % of the time.[2] Benford's law also makes predictions about the distribution of second digits, third digits, digit combinations, and so on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law
lot more at link

[Nevilledog]

2. Fact check: Deviation from Benford's Law does not prove election fraud

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-benford/fact-check-deviation-from-benfords-law-does-not-prove-election-fraud-idUSKBN27Q3AI

Social media users have been sharing posts that say a mathematical rule called Benford’s Law provides clear proof of fraud in the U.S. presidential election. However, research papers and academics consulted by Reuters consistently say that deviation from Benford’s Law does not prove election fraud took place.

Benford’s law says that in many naturally occurring sets of numbers, the first digits of these numbers (eg. the ‘1’ in ‘15’) are not evenly distributed. Measurements with a lower first digit occur more frequently: 1 is the first digit in a number about 30 percent of the time while 9 begins less than 5 percent of numbers. In certain data sets ranging from rainfall amounts to town populations, the numbers follow a Benford’s Law distribution. Deviation of data from Benford’s law has been examined in areas such as finance to detect if something is not right, for example fraud, mistakes or misstatements (here , here) .

The posts, such as those here and here , show graphs that compare candidate’s vote tallies by leading digit to the expected distribution according to Benford’s law in order to contend that Biden’s vote tallies do not follow Benford’s Law but Trump’s do. Posts state that Benford’s law is a test that has been used before to detect fraud (here) . Captions on the posts include, “Joe Biden’s votes violate Benford’s Law”; “It’s easy to win if you cheat”; “Statistically impossible odds […] now MATH doesn’t even agree with their faux victory.”

Reuters sought comment from experts regarding these claims.

Theodore P. Hill, Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Georgia Tech, Atlanta, cautioned that regardless of the distribution uncovered, the application of Benford’s Law would not provide definitive evidence that fraud took place.

*snip*

[ZonkerHarris]

4. exactly

[Nevilledog]

3. But wait...there's more

Link to tweet

Tweet text:
TRAPEZOID OF DISCOVERY
@get_innocuous
·
Sep 13, 2021
This is interesting…I’ve discovered a site that’s nearly identical to http://stopcafraud.com - http://stopnevadafraud.com, which weirdly references Georgia and Brian Kemp, and seems to be associated with Lin Wood’s FightBack PAC …cc @DavidHancock21
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Alex Seitz-Wald
@aseitzwald
NEW: Larry Elder's campaign is promoting a website that claims the recall is over, Newsom won, and they found voter fraud through a statistical analysis of the results.

The only problem: The election hasn't happened yet...

https://nbcnews.com/politics/elections/newsom-leads-california-recall-polls-larry-elder-pushes-baseless-fraud-n1279080…

TRAPEZOID OF DISCOVERY
@get_innocuous
The http://stopnevadafraud.com domain was registered on 2020-11-25.

Both sites also include the bullet point about “statistcal analyses used to detect fraud”, and a near identical form at the bottom.
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[ZonkerHarris]

5. we need to buy some "stop blank fraud" websites and attack the GOP with them for voter suppression.

[Nevilledog]

6. Alas, they're proud of suppressing votes.

[Make7]

7. Apparently Newsom defeated the recall on September 7th.

At least the web page has been saved in the Wayback Machine multiple times since then.

https://web.archive.org/web/20210907035442/https://stopcafraud.com/

Amazing how they ran an analysis on the vote counts using Benford's Law before any vote counts have been released.


A 17 minute video explaining why vote counts don't follow Benford's Law:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=0&v=etx0k1nLn78

[Bev54]

8. Rachel was reporting on this tonight.

[calimary]

9. All it tells me is that he and his crew all believe they're gonna lose.

So they have to start banging the drums and screaming about fraud, to save face somehow. And to distract attention from their having had their asses handed to them by the voters. They’ll do ANYTHING to avoid admitting they’re LOSERS!

[RockRaven]

11. No, it tells us that running and losing for the sake of running and losing was always the point.

The gimmick is to run for office to expand your profile/audience/brand, etc. Claim fraud in the loss to keep the followers engaged beyond election day and on the campaign-donation hook. And campaign funds redirect into your own pockets/are used to offset your normal life expenses (food, travel, lodging, wardrobe, etc).

[Moebym]

10. "Sad", as his buddy Don would say. n/t

[rpannier]

12. It's back up

Getting nailed on it probably forced him to do something

[mahina]

13. Whoopsie doodles

Better donate an extra day!

[Rhiannon12866]

14. Twitter reply:

Link to tweet

[TreasonousBastard]

15. So, they found this obscure statistical reference that is never used...

to prove fraud and are using it to prove fraud in an election that hasn't happened yet

You can't make this shit up.

[Demovictory9]

16. Appropriate tweet

Link to tweet

?s=19

[Demovictory9]

17. here

Link to tweet

[cojoel]

18. people doing their own research don't understand the math

As Mark Twain wrote, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure."