For these idiots saying there is a 98% survival rate with Covid.

[Arkansas Granny]

Link to tweet

?s=19


jonathan slater
@slater_jona
For these idiots saying there is a 98% survival rate with Covid. Would you go into a stadium of 50,000 people knowing 1,000 wouldn’t leave. And you don’t know which 1,000 it is ? That’s 2%
6:55 AM · Sep 14, 2021
8
See the latest COVID-19 information on Twitter

[essaynnc]

1. And of course long term complications for those who do survive!

Thank for playing, you win !

[PatSeg]

8. Yes, a lot of people do not go back to normal

and we still don't know how their illness will affect them ten or twenty years from now.

[mopinko]

11. i had west nile 20 years ago. i'm still f'd up.

one of those viruses that causes autoimmune disease to flare.

we wont know about covid for a while, but i have little doubt it will affect some people like wnv affected me.

[PatSeg]

36. Oh, that is absolutely awful

Yes, I am quite sure that the long term effects of COVID are going to be brutal for a lot of people. We still don't know how COVID may have damaged their internal organs in ways that could be permanent - heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, etc. For some shortsighted people, if it doesn't kill you (now), then it is no big deal like a cold or the flu. They like to dwell on the survival statistics, as if that is justification to ignore public health warnings.

[mopinko]

39. and that's w/o serious illness.

a few days of feeling like shit, and being all spotty.
nothing like what covid is doing.
we need to look at those survival stats as a long term burden in at least 10% of the cases.

i just hope that we are better at tracking such things now. otherwise, it's one patient at a time, trying to convince 1 doc that they arent crazy.

[PatSeg]

44. Yes, I agree

We've already heard from "long-haulers" who had trouble convincing their doctors that there was something seriously wrong with them. Their stories are devastating. I can imagine people in the future being misdiagnosed for seemingly vague symptoms that no one is even attributing to COVID. I believe many of these people could be walking time bombs.

Meanwhile, many doctors could end up throwing all kinds of medications at the problems, possibly making it worse. Another scary thought is insurance companies could start viewing a positive COVID test result as a preexisting condition, even if the person didn't have any obvious symptoms at the time. So many ways to get screwed by this virus.

[wnylib]

54. Agree. We have set too low of a bar

Last edited Tue Sep 14, 2021, 03:13 PM - Edit history (1)

on expectations regarding this virus. Other viruses, like polio, have a low death rate compared to its crippling effect, but we went all out on fighting it in order to eliminate it.

We should focus more on the organ and tissue damage from covid. Ask how many people are willing to contract a disease that will give them chronic heart, lung, kidney, and liver disease. How many people are content to live with dialysis for years just so they can attend a public event without a mask or vaccine?

Pose it this way to people:
I can give you free tickets to an indoor concert. No mask or vaccine required. Your chances of getting sick are high, but you will only lose kidney function, develop heart disease, or lose your ability to think clearly. It's worth it, though, isn't it?

How many would agree?

Too many people think that, just because they would survive the virus, it is harmless. They compare it to the flu. But would they think the flu was no big deal if it caused blood clots and strokes, weakened hearts, permanent liver damage?

[PatSeg]

71. Excellent point

I think it all hit so hard and fast during an ineffective administration, that people felt they had to focus on emergency responses. Unfortunately the messaging could have been better. Of course in fairness, all the long term repercussions weren't known initially.

Now that we know more, however, perhaps health experts could start focusing more on the many other risks of COVID besides ventilators and/or death. You are right, let people know about possible organ damage/failure in very graphic terms. There will be some who will trust in their invincible immune systems or a god who will protect them, but there are others who might not be willing to take such an obvious and frightening risk.

[LeftInTX]

43. West Nile is much more complicated

It's kinda like polio


I believe many of the problems with Covid is not Covid itself, but the body's response to Covid. Similar things happened during the 1918 flu pandemic. Most healthy people who catch Covid and recover will probably shake off symptoms eventually. If there was actual lung damage from Covid, it unfortunately will persist.

Damage to other internal organs from Covid is probably due to an immune system/systemic response to Covid. People with prexisting conditions such as COPD, hypertension, etc etc are more likely to develop these problems. Also people with robust immune systems can also develop these problems because an immune system in "overdrive" is also dangerous.

[mopinko]

49. i think we are about to learn a whole lot about viruses. esp long term.

we're just learning about both autoimmune disease and cancers that are kicked off by viruses.
i lost my big sister to ms. her dx was in the late 70's. they were just starting to think about viral triggers, and her case likely was. her mil got it about the same time. they lived together. right by a river, even.
i wouldnt be surprised to find i have a mild case. i hung out there a lot. i had big coordination issues right after the wn. have a lot of neuro issues.

i had other viruses that likely kicked this off. my dad had the same thing. i was always a bit sketchy. also took a bad blow to the head as a kid, tho. neuro stuff is complicated.

yeah, file all this under- shit i never rly wanted to know.

[Dorian Gray]

58. That's such a good point

I think we are going to see a huge increase in autoimmune diseases as a result of this virus. It seems to attack all the same things that autoimmune diseases do, and that brain fog is a symptom of a bunch of them.

Glad your WNV wasn't a big deal at the time, and sorry youre suffering longer term flare ups from it. I think that this is a potential HUGE issue for a vast number of the world's population.

[mopinko]

59. well at least they cant call that many people crazy.

esp as there will be lot of men.

[cynical_idealist]

69. And we don't know how it affecting kids either.

[Mad_Machine76]

2. I simply can't understand

How some people can be so blasé about a virus that has killed several hundred thousand people and willing to believe that they’ll be ok if they get sick.

[MiniMe]

4. That's the whole point

It isn't like 1-2k people have died, it is over half a million people. They have no idea what they are playing with

[The King of Prussia]

16. According to World O Meter

4,655,162 have died worldwide.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

18. Actual figure is 0.2% in US. See my post #17 (which I used Worldometer for numbers). . . . nt

Last edited Tue Sep 14, 2021, 10:41 AM - Edit history (1)

[milestogo]

19. Denial

It aint just a river in Egypt.

[John Ludi]

3. The ability

to create one's own reality tunnel in an already ill-educated populace works wonders.

[Dave says]

65. Reading Metzinger?

[John Ludi]

70. No...

just my own observation...did he write something similar?

[vanlassie]

5. My reply to the last person who blithered that reasoning to me was

“If you like those odds, you must be ecstatic with the nearly infinitesimal odds for dying from taking the vaccine.” They clammed up at that point.

[gibraltar72]

6. Thom Hartmann asks

Would you fly if 2 of every hundred planes was gonna crash?

[genxlib]

7. I made that exact point

Except that I made the story that x number of people would be taken down to the field and executed at half time. I have a flair for the dramatic that way.

I also made points about going to a restaurant where 1 out of every 500 plates was poisoned.

Its playing Russian roulette no matter how you look at it.

[ybbor]

9. But it would be 10 out of 500

I wouldn’t go either way, unless the food was “to die for”.

[Farmer-Rick]

12. Yup, the vaccinated have about a 1 in a million chance of dying from Covid-19

While without the vaccine, you have a 1 in 50 chance of dying.

I like the 1 in a million odds better.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

22. Your comparison is bogus, apples to oranges. Your bases are different and your time periods bogus

There is a 1.6% chance of dying in the US if you have a confirmed case: 680,000 / 42,000,000. That's an 18 month period, most of which was zero-vaccinated.

The chances of dying after vaccination are less than one tenth with vaccination, but once again that is among confirmed cases.

The one in a million would only be true if about 250 vaccinated people died out of 250,000,000 vaccinated, which would be a population base, not confirmed case base. We need to wait 18 months to get comparable figures. I suspect that many more than 250 will die, but I still like the odds, so I'm fully vaccinated.

Comparatively (far from a perfect comparison), comparatively 680,000 / 333,000,000 = 0.2% from a population base.

One has to also account for the fact that people who are fully vaccinated are less likely (about 10x) to show symptoms and therefore less likely to be tested and get tallied as a confirmed case. This is because the vaccination repels the virus almost immediately or the immune system is strong enough it can fight the virus without manifesting symptoms. Then among the confirmed cases you are less like to die by a factor of about 10%. So that multiplies out to about 1%.

Thus I think that vaccinated people will die at about 0.2% / 100 = 0.002% = 20 / 1,000,000. So in 18 months we may see as many as 5,000 vaccinated deaths as an upper bound, but that will pale in comparison to unvaccinated deaths. I think that before 18 months there will be sufficient herd immunity (mostly by vaccination) that the virus will burn itself out to be endemic not pandemic, and we won't see nearly that many deaths.

[Farmer-Rick]

38. So you are saying a vaccinated person has a 20 in a million chance of dying from Covid-19?

You're right my estimated chances of dying form COVID-19 are based on my age group and before the Delta variant came to the US.

So the bottom line for all age groups, if you catch the virus you have a 20 in a million chance of dying if you are vaccinated and 1 in hundred if not?

Not sure I follow all your math.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

42. That's my best educated guess. I'm not an epidemiologist

There's a reason we have epidimiologists. They would catch the mistake I caught in the OP, but they would undoubtedly catch some mistakes in my reckoning.

So I trust carefully worded reports from epidemiologists and pertinent medical professionals after I have carefully read them (or the media reports of reports) to see what applies to what.

It is very easy to make the OP's mistake; transferring one statistic to another domain where the original assumptions and constraints do not apply.

[Farmer-Rick]

46. Thanks for keeping me straight.

[wnylib]

61. But there are variations according to age groups

and other factors which often overlap age groups. In my county, according to statistics on the county healthboard website, about 49% of confirmed cases are in people under age 40. 16% of all confirmed cases are vaccinated people and 7% are partially vaccinated.

The highest vaccination rate in the county is among people 65 and older. That age group also has the highest death rate, even though the highest infection rate is among younger people. People over 65 have more underlying conditions than younger people, combined with age-weakened immune systems. Those variations in age and health conditions need to be taken into account.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

51. Here's a DU post of a Tiktok tweet that agrees somewhat (1 in 86,000) with my numbers:

1 in 86,000 is about 12 in a million. My educated guess at 20 in a million anticipates some further Covid deaths among vaccinated before herd immunity (mostly through vaxing) is achieved.



To summarize her calculations

1 in 8 chance of getting infected (confirmed case) if you are not vaccinated.

... but 1 in 13,400 chance of getting infected if you are fully vaccinated. (Figure will go up, but even 10x odds still extremely low.)

1 in 61 chance of dying if you do get a confirmed case. ( 8 x 61 equals 1 in 500 chance of dying if you are not vaccinated).

... but a 1 in 86,000 chance of dying if you are vaccinated.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215853554

[Farmer-Rick]

56. Good info.

I appreciate the link.

[genxlib]

21. True

But at the time the argument was .2% and I was trying to convince him that even if it was only .2% it was a ridiculous amount of risk to ignore.

So I was correct at the time but the math was different for this particular example.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

34. Actually, your original figure of 0.2% applies NOW AND your/OP analogy still powerful. . . . nt

[wnylib]

57. I call it covid roulette.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. Super spreader events are probably worse odds. Wear a mask or be a filter.

Sardine packaging.

[Orrex]

13. I met a woman last week

She recently bought her home very cheaply, because the previous owner (whom I knew) died of covid.

The current owner has a "Don't Tread on Me" flag in the yard, is not vaxed, and is ready to sue the school for "forcing" her kids to wear masks.

People like this simply deny objective reality. They are beyond the reach of logic or reason.

[Malmsy]

14. And many others would leave with permanent heart or lung damage, or cognitive disability. (eom)

[modrepub]

15. And That 2% Disease

Is enough to overwhelm the health-care system, funeral industry and wreck the global economic system.

Imagine if we get something going that has the morbidity rate like that of the Black Death (70%). Given how this disease has impacted us, I can see how medieval and ancient societies were brought to their knees when pandemics broke out.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. Point is great, but that statistic is bogus. Actual figures are 0.2% or 1.6%

The analogy is 2% of what? It's not stated, so it is bogus.

The actual figures are:

0.2% = 2/1000 = 680,000 deaths / 333,000,000 people

or

1.6% = 680,000 deaths / 42,000,000 confirmed cases

The analogy is much weaker than the tweeter thinks, because the former figure is more applicable, not the latter. Going into a stadium you don't know who has it, so the confirmed cases does not apply. The analogy would be to the 0.2%.

Thus in a stadium of 50,000, there would be 100 who do not get out. And the analogy is hardly applicable because two hours in a stadium is not equivalent to two years in a pandemic.

[pwb]

20. Not following the 2% being 2/1000?

Two percent of 50, 000 is 1000.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

23. Arithmeticly, 2% of 50,000 is 1,000. But you didn't read my post. 2% DOES NOT APPLY. . . nt

[pwb]

24. The O P said 98% survive? That leaves 2%?

I read the O P and your argument.

[FBaggins]

27. And the professor's argument is that the OP does not describe reality

It isn't that 98% survive.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

32. Yes. 98.4% survive a positive test result. 99.8% of the population has survived so far.

Population does not equal confirmed cases.

Population = 333,000,000

Confirmed cases = 42,000,000

In the USA.

Rates are much lower in Canada.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

29. The OP is wrong. You don't get the vaccine AFTER case confirmation.

Read my post.

The 2% figure DOES NOT APPLY because it based on the 1.6% figure that applies to CONFIRMED CASES.

Get a positive test and you have a 1.6% chance of dying.

That's not a population statistic. The number of people in the stadium is a population statistic, in the analogy.

You don't get the vaccination after a case confirmation.

If you are comparing the rate of death in the total population, to compare apples to apples and populations to analogy, then you have to use the 0.2% figure.

[FBaggins]

33. Nor are the remaining undecideds a mirror of the entire population

Vaccination rates are much higher among those who are older and/or have "comorbidities" associated with COVID deaths.

Of course - Figures over a year and a half are probably not accurate for Delta.

[FBaggins]

26. I think the professor is trying to correct the stadium analogy

You don't go to a stadium of 50,000 people if 1,000 of them are going to die... but that doesn't correlate to the current pandemic.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

30. You got it. . . . nt

[GusBob]

60. Thank you for bringing actual facts to the table

maybe twitter is where idiots hang out

[gordianot]

25. Those numbers would shatter any Army on Earth.

Truly catastrophic for any single event.

[Fortinbras Armstrong]

28. There have been approximately 41 million Covid cases in the US

A 98% survival rate means that 820,000 have died. (The actual number is about 660,0000.)

[wnylib]

63. All this emphasis on how many die vs. how many survive

overlooks completely the survivors who have permanent tissue and organ damage.

Who would willingly choose to have preventable lifetime heart damage, fatigue, decreased cognitive function, dialysis due to kidney damage?

Polio has a lower death rate than covid, but we went all out in efforts to eliminate it due to its crippling effects. We should view the long term damage from covid the same way.

[wnylib]

64. All this emphasis on how many die vs. how many survive

overlooks completely the survivors who have permanent tissue and organ damage.

Who would willingly choose to have preventable lifetime heart damage, fatigue, decreased cognitive function, dialysis due to kidney damage?

Polio has a lower death rate than covid, but we went all out in efforts to eliminate it due to its crippling effects. We should view the long term damage from covid the same way.

[SKKY]

31. That's fine and all, but I have a good friend in Florida...

...who lost 100% of her parents. AND SHE'S STILL PRO TRUMP and ANTI VAX!!! It seriously boggles the imagination. And, if I'm honest, depresses me just a bit. This is a full-on cult.

[SoCalDavidS]

40. A Good Friend, Huh?

Perhaps you need to cut her loose. You should choose your friends better than that.

She demonstrates on a daily basis what's in her heart, and yet you still call her your friend?

[KentuckyWoman]

50. I see this a lot on the DU.

I am not the person you responded to but I want to say ... I am 80. One lesson I know is that GOOD friends don't come along every day.

This idea that we throw people out of our lives because we feel they've recently lost their way or we disagree with their path is beyond my understanding. If someone is my good friend for decades, proven themselves over and over again... I'm not going to just toss them aside. Oh I may ask a few questions, vehemently disagree, make ever attempt to persuade - but it will take more than a political disagreement to throw away a good friend.

I've even seen people tell someone to throw away a sibling or a spouse over Trump. That appalls me. What on earth makes anyone on the planet think they know enough about such personal and intimate relations to make such a counsel based on such limited info as given in a short post? I just do not understand that.

Hopefully you can explain that to me, because I truly do not understand it.

[SoCalDavidS]

55. When People Show Their True Colors

These people have not recently lost their way. It is not a matter of disagreeing with the path they're taking.

It's a matter of human life, and respect for others. I am willing to engage in intelligent discourse with views which differ from my own. But clearly we are past that. We are in the looking glass.

I am 55, and prefer to deal in reality. The science has been established. Those who refuse to get vaccinated, without a valid medical reason, are selfish and stupid. They can be nice and wonderful, and a lifelong friend, but the bottom line is, if/when they give me Covid, and I die, their lives will go on, shortly after they spend a few minutes sending their thoughts and prayers.

I'm sorry, but I choose my friends wisely, and I thankfully do not have any close friends who subscribe to the MAGA beliefs, or the anti-vax position. I guess I'm lucky in that regard.

If I was to meet someone like that, I would not want to become friends with them either. But that's just me, and everyone has a right to choose who they want to be friends with. Even the poster I responded to. I do not expect her to take the advice of a stranger, like myself, on a message board. And I 100% doubt that they will anyways.

[SKKY]

67. Nor can I KentuckyWoman. Nor can I...

...I mean, my life would be soooo much easier if I could just get rid of everyone I disagree with, or have differences of opinion with, or don't get along with very much. But, I guess I'm just not cut from that cloth.

[SKKY]

66. Yes I do, and I care about her so what you have suggested is not an option...

...I also have family members who feel the same way. Can't really get rid of them can you?

[lees1975]

35. So 2% of the population just really doesn't matter

if their survival interferes with my freedom?

Who are these ignorant, stupid people?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

48. It's 0.2% but your point is good and stands. . . . nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

37. Actually, the idiots say there is 99.97 survival rate

When they believe that a 99.97% survivable sniffle is the Black Death.
When they believe that filthy cloth rags will “save” them from the
survivable sniffles.
When they believe that their vaccination isn’t effective unless
EVERYONE is vaccinated.
9 posted on 2021-08-07, by lightman

[Corgigal]

41. 20 percent will come down with the infection

and need medical attention. With a 2 percent death rate, those other 18 percent can have a host of problems, plenty for the rest of their lives. I read humans aren’t good at probabilities, guess COVID is showing that’s true.

[Strelnikov_]

52. Until the medical system is overwhelmed

Then a portion of that 18% moves over into the 2% camp. Not to mention the non-Covid medical issues that are now deaths.

Seems 'flatten the curve' has been forgotten.

[KentuckyWoman]

45. There are worse things than death

I cannot find the stats on how many long term disabled by Covid. Strokes, lung damage, kidney damage ... heart inflamation. Blood clots elsewhere in the body.

98% survive. How many of those are long term disabled?

[Jon King]

47. This, long term heath effects are quite a gamble to take.

Not in any of the statistics. How many will harm their health for the rest of their lives?

[h2ebits]

62. I think that we need to stress this. . . .

Everybody keeps talking about the death rate but we need to really put the information out there about the after effects that can last a lifetime.

I am worried sick for my tiny grandchildren and great grandchildren that are completely vulnerable and have parents that have been sucked down the rabbit hole of conspiracy theories.

[IbogaProject]

53. Case fatality has held at 2% for 18 months

Case fatality has held at 2% for 18 months, my guess is 3 out of 4 shake it off without being tested or just test positive for antibodies later. That means maybe 0.5% death rate. I'd estimate serious after effects 5-20 times as often. So 10-40% of all cases will have long term effects.

Our country will now be permantly set back.

[NoMoreRepugs]

68. Better yet a 50,000 Deplorable crowd 90%+ unvaccinated.

We’ll know the approximate stats soon enough now that college football season is here.

[patricia92243]

72. If they "survive" they have all sorts of other problems brought

on by Covid.

[DBoon]

73. and a rattlesnake bite has a 99.5% chance of survival

Should you go out and tease a nest of rattlers?

[roamer65]

74. I think the death rate on Delta is higher than the previous variants.

Estimates in India were between 3-4 million dead. Modi lied about the numbers.