Thank-you survey USA for your insight into the California Recall

[JohnSJ]

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=36cdcb0b-7cfa-4b55-8704-d1f02a9fe6e5

“
51% of likely voters in California's upcoming gubernatorial recall election today would vote Yes to recall incumbent California Governor Gavin Newsom, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KABC-TV in Los Angeles and KGTV 10News and The San Diego Tribune.

40% would vote No, to keep Newsom in office.
“
Hmmmmmmm

[MustLoveBeagles]

1. Oops!

[JohnSJ]

2. A big OOPS at that

[Sogo]

3. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!!

[JohnSJ]

4. +++

[stopdiggin]

5. So ... you're saying ...

couldn't find their ass with a pair of oven mitts .. ?

[JohnSJ]

6. It was an outlier

[stopdiggin]

7. OK. polling data Aug 2 thru 4

but still ...
'ats some pretty sh*tty work there ...

[Celerity]

11. you found what I was going to post, it is a snapshot from almost a month and half ago, AND

the poll was flawed and the pollster issued a mea culpa

All of which should have been disclosed by the OP.


https://calmatters.org/politics/2021/09/newsom-recall-poll-campaign/

“This recall is close,” read the fundraising email to supporters on Aug. 5, the day after the SurveyUSA poll was released. “Close enough to start thinking about what it’d be like if we had a Republican Governor in California. Sorry to put the thought in your head, but it’s true.”

Only maybe it wasn’t.

In its next poll, released at the end of August, SurveyUSA issued a mea culpa in a memo addendum that said the prior poll may have misworded a question and inadvertently inflated the “yes” on recall numbers.

[Sympthsical]

8. A lot flipped once Elder became the Republican frontrunner

There was a lot of discontent with Newsom. Many people were not endeared to his Covid antics. Survey USA was not the only poll showing close numbers in late July and early August.

Then Elder started talking.

The man campaigned in California on bringing total Trumpism to the state. He gleefully told everyone he would replace Feinstein with a Republican when we have a 50/50 U.S. Senate.

List just about any topic. If there was a way he could've alienated moderates and independents, he managed to find the best one.

He mistook attention for approval.

I'm not sure why you're flicking at polls. They were all much closer back then. If Republicans had coalesced behind a moderate, competent candidate who made promises like keeping a potential Feinstein replacement a Democrat, it would've been closer. Not sure they would've succeeded, but it wouldn't have been this total body-slamming we're seeing.

A lot of people may not be thrilled with Newsom, but they absolutely positively did not want a Trump clone. Elder, man, read the state.

[JohnSJ]

9. None of the polls accurately estimated the effect of postage paid mail in ballots with a state

that has 45% registered Democrats verses 23% registered republicans, and those who were NPP most were not conservative

There was not a lot of discontent among Democrats against Newsom. I don’t know where you are coming up with that. The only question was “turnout”, and the postage paid mail in ballots made that a muddled issue with the pollsters. The registered Democrats were always going to vote NO, even if Elder wasn’t an alternative candidate. Newsom was not disliked among California Democrats

The entire recall was a republicans sham, like they tried three other times against Newsom, and that happened when Elder wasn’t in the picture. The only reason it succeeded this time is because they found a jackass judge to extend the time to gather signatures by three months. That and the low threshold we have for recall signatures, 11%
allowed it to happen. We are the only state that has that low of a threshold for recalls. All other states that have recalls have a minimum of 25%

As long as the registered voters mailed in their ballots, this was going to turn out the way it did

The survey USA poll was an outlier pure and simple. They made assumptions on what they considered likely voters, and they were wrong. Saying the recall was in favor by 11 points was bullshit, and Elder was a leading alternative candidate when that poll was taken.

[PortTack]

10. The polls..all of them are essentially worthless! The last 3 election cycles have proven they are

No longer accurate.

[stopdiggin]

12. that's really overstating

Other newer (and from both and different sources and the same organization) polling in this race was much more accurate. This one inaccurate result doesn't really make your case.