It's the Hispanic Vote, Stupid!

[demwing]

I really have a simple message:

No entre en pánico!

It means "don't panic!" in Spanish. Don't panic about the polls! Yeah, I know they're getting a bit better, but that's not what I meant.

So why then? Easy! The pollsters are using a "likely voter" method for weighting their poll results. That's logical, but at the same time, it seems to be tossing poll results like a Caesar salad with a garnish of organically grown mayhem.

The reason for this mayhem (and the reason you should relax on the panic) is simple. The truth is, we don't have a damned clue about what a "likely" voter looks like. It's all made up based on what they looked like last year, and the year before, etc.

Our country is evolving, but like the rate of polar ice melt, the browning of America is happening much more rapidly than we thought. The Hispanic vote has been drastically under estimated - and we see the truth of this when we conduct polls in English AND Spanish - because Obama's numbers get an immediate bounce. Nevada and Colorado firm up, and one poll even showed an Obama lead in Arizona!

The enthusiasm of Democrats and progressives has been drastically under estimated - and we see the truth of this in the record breaking donations Obama's had recently. Uninspired people don't shell out money, especially when money is tight, like it is. We are sacrificing for this campaign. Why? Duh! because we are extremely enthused!!

So who have the polls been weighted toward recently? That's right, white southerners! Unbelievable, but true.

It seems that each recent election year was marked by a demographic theme. 2008 was the African American vote. 2010 was the Tea Party vote. What will 2012 be?

More Tea Party? The Ayn Rand vote?

No, it's the Hispanic vote, and the issues are immigration, deportation, and the Dream Act. We've been seeing it for the last year, we've just been marginalizing it--probably because the media has been marginalizing the story, and even as much as they've reported on immigration, they won't report on the ramifications of the emerging Hispanic vote. It unbalances their narrative, and takes the edge off their horse race.

The facts behind what I'm saying are readily available scattered through DU and across the Inter-tubes

Find the facts, piece them together, and above all "No entre en pánico!"

[flamingdem]

1. Si se puede

mas que nunca

adelante Obama!

[brush]

2. Go Obama

Please translate. I like to pick up Spanish phrases when I can.

[lunatica]

5. Yes we can

more than ever

Go Obama!

[brush]

8. Thanks, lunatica

[Baitball Blogger]

3. k&r

[lunatica]

4. If the media mentioned the Hispanic vote the horserace would be over

And women aren't too happy with the GOP either.

[Le Taz Hot]

6. Our local polls

indicate Hispanics are going for Romney. The Catholic Church is primarily responsible for this.

[demwing]

7. That's not what I found

http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2012/10/catholic-latinos-siding-with-obama-evangelicals-divided-2482516.html

"Support for the incumbent Democratic president is overwhelming among Hispanics without any religious affiliation, who back Obama over rival Republican Mitt Romney by 82 percent to 7 percent.

Among Latino Catholics, 73 percent say they support the Democratic candidate and 19 percent the Republican.

Out of every 10 evangelical Protestants surveyed by Pew, five support Obama and four favor Romney."

[Le Taz Hot]

9. It's a headline that was in my local paper

a day or two ago. I've been back and forth to the hospital with an ailing elderly aunt this past week so I've been kind of out of the loop and didn't read the full story. I went back and checked and the article was about Evangelical Hispanics. Here's the article I was referring to:

http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/10/18/3034691/hispanic-evangelicals-lean-toward.html#storylink=misearch

So, I amend my statement to "evangelical Hispanics."

[brush]

10. Hah!

You're not fooling anyone here. I've been registering new voters for months, many Latino Americans, and they tell me as they are filling out the form that they are eager to vote for the President. Your misleading, mis-info post doesn't work on this site. Try it somewhere else.

[Le Taz Hot]

11. Well, darn!

After 11 years on DU it took YOU to realize that I'm here just to fool everyone.

(Btw, see post #9 -- it'll catch you up.)

[flamingdem]

12. I can believe it with the evangelicals

They really are devoted here even going to church Friday at night for some.

But it's California right? Fresno? I hope it's more in CA than elsewhere but it's crazy how many Latinos are devoted evangelicals these days. The inroads were originally made by missionaires in Latin America. It was political because of Catholic Liberation theology, much more progressive of course, and certain forces wanted to slow that down.