How The Fight Over Abortion Access Might Affect The 2022 Midterms
Roughly two weeks ago, a highly restrictive abortion law went into effect in Texas, outlawing abortions once fetal cardiac activity can be detected usually about six weeks into a pregnancy which is before most women know they are pregnant.
On Tuesday, the Department of Justice filed an emergency injunction asking a judge to halt the law, and a hearing is set for early next month to consider temporarily blocking it, but, as of today, no one in Texas has brought a suit against an abortion provider in the state; clinics have said they plan to abide by the law.
But that hasnt stopped abortion from once again being at the forefront of American politics. Beyond the Texas law, there is a law in Mississippi banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy that the Supreme Court is expected to take up later this year. This means abortion could reshape next years midterm elections. And although abortion has historically animated Republican voters more, it is proving to be a motivation for Democrats, too. During the summer of 2018, shortly after then-President Donald Trump nominated conservative judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, Democrats were increasingly likely to say abortion was an important factor in how they would vote that year. So its likely that this year and next, as Roes legal status is up in the air and more states move to pass restrictive abortion bills, the issue will be a top concern for many Democratic voters.
A recent Morning Consult poll of registered voters suggests that Democratic women are already prioritizing the issue more than they were prior to Texass law taking effect. Per their survey, 14 percent of Democratic women said issues like abortion, contraception and equal pay are their top voting concerns up 6 percentage points from before the Texas law took effect. To be sure, though, abortion isnt the top voting issue for Democratic women. The survey notes that the economy (25 percent) and health care (18 percent) each ranked as higher priorities.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fight-over-abortion-access-might-affect-the-2022-midterms/