why the VA-GOV race is closer than it should be

[elleng]

Youngkin is outspending McAuliffe by millions--and the gap is likely to grow. Biden isn't helping as his ratings fall. Democrats aren't as energized with Trump out of the White House and so far, Rs are disproportionately Likely Voters.

Spreading this around.

[msongs]

1. and what's mcauliffe gonna do about any of this nt

[Dawson Leery]

2. At this time, Terry has 13 million and Trumpkin has just 6 as he spent his money.

Terry needs to raise more and spend it on ads. Any wealthy Democrats want to chip in?

[elleng]

3. McAuliffe SHOULD be smart enough to figure this out.

[arlyellowdog]

4. Isn't Terry up by 6 points in the Washington Post Poll?

I am doing my part as a Democrat to get out the vote. I know saying the race is tight is important, but I don’t think we should be negative about our candidate. He’s winning, he’s campaigning. The stakes are high. We just need to keep working.

[elleng]

5. Received e.mail from Carville: 'early voting just started and we're BEHIND!!!!!

we’ve got a huge problem in the Virginia governor’s race.
Trump-endorsed Glenn Youngkin has promised to massively outspend Terry McAuliffe. If he makes good on his commitment to drop $75 million into the Virginia governor’s race, he’ll be able to buy up the airwaves and smear Terry every chance he gets.

Unless Terry raises enough money to keep up, Youngkin will pull ahead in the polls. This is a huge deal, especially because early voting has already begun in Virginia.

Can Terry and I count on your support to get the Democratic message out there? Split a $1 donation between the Democratic Governors Association and Terry right now – and have it DOUBLED up to our goal – to help Terry and Democrats fight back.

You know just as well as I do that TV ads can make or break a close race like this. If Terry can’t compete by building the largest grassroots team in the history of Virginia, Youngkin will use his deep pockets to flood the airwaves.

All of Virginia’s progress will be gone in an instant and Donald Trump will strengthen his grip on the Republican Party heading into the 2022 midterms.'

[arlyellowdog]

8. We've gotten panic emails all along. It's fundraising

[brooklynite]

6. Fun fact: that was Sabato's response to my question.....

[elleng]

7. Thanks

[msfiddlestix]

9. I just returned from a 3 week stay in Carroll County Va... Youngkin signs spotty, but definitely

present in significant areas. My entire stay in Virginia was in the rural areas. Actually, I expected to see much more R indicators than I had. I think I saw one "trump" signage somewhere near Galax.

I figured people were simply not interested in going out of their way waving Red Tribe flags like say in California where they want to be seen and known. That said, I did see the occasional Youngkin signage in various places like on a fence of a small strip mall, or on a roadside of someone's land.

I saw no McAuliffe signage anywhere. Definitely needs to beef up his campaign signage, imo.

I'm hoping the urban cities are populated with enough D voters that will keep Virginia Blue. But I'm a little worried.

I really enjoyed my stay and travels there. So much so, I'm trying to figure out if it's possible for me to move there.

[Marius25]

10. I don't understand why so many Democrats are so apathetic

Haven't we learned you can't sit out any election?

[peggysue2]

11. Not pretending I have a crystal ball

But I can't help seeing the similarity between the WAPO's recent headline and followup article with the lead up to Newsom's recall. The primary elements are the same: Youngkin's war chest and outspending the opposition (though McAuliffe has raised an eye-popping amount), the lack of enthusiasm among Dem voters (Dems in disarray) and Biden's 'plummeting' poll numbers.

Is the race close at this point? Anywhere from 3-6 points favoring McAuliffe from what I've read. Youngkin brought his own sizable fortune to the table and from the stats has outspent McAuliffe at this point, really burning the cash.

However, once this starts heating up, once Dem activists and workers and door-knockers gear up, once the framing of the race becomes clear (even though he's desperately trying to hide it, Youngkin is a Trump hugger) and McAuliffe's considerable political talents ignite, I think (no guarantees) that Virginia will roll into the blue pocket.

This is an important race for the Dems, so I would expect party leaders to be just as active in supporting McAuliffe as they were for Newsom. Carville is out there beating the drum to remind us all: this is the race to watch and support as we head into 2022. This is a prelude that Democrats need to write and underscore and repeat mantra-like:

Losing is not an option.