DeSantis narrowing his own election margin
So we've seen that more people have died in FL than DeSantis won by.
I just did it as a little story problem last night.
***** I HAVE RATHER CRUDE ASSUMPTIONS IN WHAT FOLLOWS ******
Worldometer has total FL deaths at 50817
DeSantis margin of victory was 32000
The vaccines really came on strong by Apr 1, at that point FL had about 33000 deaths
If I assume
--prevax deaths were 60% GOP and 40% DEM
--postvax deaths are all unvaccinated, and
-- 40% of GOP got vaxxed
-- 90% of DEM got vaxxed
It means DeSantis has narrowed his margin to 19274
But what about those who were friends of or related to someone who died of COVID? if just 9637 votes change from R to D, it makes the margin drop to 0.
I assume anyone close to a DEM that died won't change their vote based on the experience, but some R's will see they were horribly misled. Based on *my* crude assumptions, 35072 of those who died are "R"'s.
Looks like if just 27% of the GOP'ers who died have just one person who knew them who changes their vote from R to D, DeSantis has lost his margin.
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