How does the GOP do such a good job of framing the state of the race?

[aaaaaa5a]

I find the RCP average of polls to be a very accurate indicator of where a race is.

In 2008 it predicted all but one of the states correctly. The RCP average of polls really only missed twice. It had McCain beating Obama in Indiana. (Although the margins were absurdly close so I actually give them a pass here.) And it had Obama winning by a narrow margin in Nevada. And it ended up being an Obama blowout.

So overall the RCP average of polls has a good track record.


Therefore I don’t understand is how the GOP controls the storyline based on these numbers.

For instance…

As of Saturday 10/20/12 at 10:30AM here is the RCP average for Florida

Romney +2.1

And here is the average for Virginia

Tie 48/48 (Does NOT include the PPP poll which would give Obama an edge.)



Now here is the RCP average for Ohio.

Obama +2.6


Here is the average for Iowa.

Obama + 2.4


And here is the average for Wisconsin

Obama +2.8



Question?

How come the storyline of the last few days is that Florida (Romney+2.1) and Virginia (Even/Obama actually ahead with PPP number out today) are barely even considered battleground states by the media?

But Ohio (Obama+2.6), Wisconsin (Obama+2.8) and Iowa (Obama+2.4) are considered hotly contested “down to the wire” tossups?




Just based on the numbers, Obama is more likely to win Florida and Virginia than Romney is Ohio, Wisconsin and/or Iowa. There hasn’t been a credible poll showing Romney ahead in Ohio in weeks. Two very credible pollsters (Survey USA/PPP) are showing Obama winning Virginia and Florida AS OF THIS MORNING!

It just never ceases to amaze me how much better the GOP is at messaging than we are.




Just to round of my rant. Based on the RCP average, here are two more “for sure/ no doubt about it” Romney states:

Colorado (Romney +0.2)

New Hampshire (Romney +1)


And 1 more “battle-ground/anything can happen tossup” state for Obama

Nevada (Obama +3)




I won’t even go into the fact that Obama only needs roughly 3 of these states. And Romney will need all but 1 or 2 to win.


Yup… it looks like Romney is in perfect position!

I wish Chuck Todd could explain this to me.

[Dawgs]

1. Good analysis. It's sad that some here fall for that same spin.

Yesterday there were no less than three posts stating that the Virginia race was over, and that Obama had already lost there.

[JuveDem]

2. They are very good at speaking with one voice

Got to hand it to them. They all speak in unison and the media has just become a conduit staffed with good looking folks rather than actual journalists who question their talking points.

Your Journalists of today get bullied and get run over by these folks. It also helps that they have a widely viewed news station in fox news and they control AM talk radio.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. I have looked at this 100% objectively.

Of the original battleground states, there are only 2 states are off the table.

1 for each side.


Nevada is in Obama's column.

North Carolina is in Romney's column.



When the new RCP average comes out, Obama will be AHEAD in Virginia. And currently Obama is closer and more likely to win Florida than Romney is Ohio.

And in Ohio and Iowa, Obama's lead means more because people are already voting. Romney doesn't have any time left to close in these states.

[pscot]

4. I did the same calculation you did

and came up with the same non-answer. CNN seems to be operating according to some agenda of their own, truth be damned. Fox, of course, just screams the lies at max volume.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. They own all the media

and we don't. And it's not like "we" don't have wealthy Democrats who could easily buy these megaphones.

[librechik]

8. also the second, third, fourth and fifth reason

[Surya Gayatri]

15. And there you have it--'nuff said!

[reformist2]

6. The media has been ridiculous in overhyping the Romney bump in the polls.

There's no denying there was a bump, but it was only 2-3 points.... The media has made it look like Romney is now in the lead. It really is irresponsible journalism.

[aaaaaa5a]

9. According to Nate Silver,

the challenger always gets about 2 point bump following the first debate. Romney's bump was really only slightly above average. But to hear the media tell it, his surge was of biblical proportions.

[demwing]

13. And to "prove" it they contrast two extremes

Obama's post convention bum to Romney's post debate bump. It's like contrasting the hottest day of summer to the coldest in winter, and pretending the Earth froze overnight.

[Surya Gayatri]

16. Yeah, a tidal wave worthy of Noah and the Arc.

[porphyrian]

7. The media has a profit motive to broadcast their mythology. There really is no horse race.

If we all vote, and all of the votes are counted, President Obama will win this election by a large margin.

[BarackTheVote]

10. We celebrate intelligence, they celebrate blind loyalty

Republicans are anti-intellectual authoritarians; this means they present a unified front and a black-and-white view of the world. If you don't go along with the talking points memo as a Republican operative, you are considered a heretic and subject to fierce backlash.

Democrats are intelligent and recognize shades of gray; this means that we might not all be in lockstep when it comes to certain issues--we use our brains rather than just buy into what we are told; in general, our narrative is much more nuanced... and due to this fact, it doesn't do well with today's sound-bite-centric form of journalism.

Republicans cannot accept it when they make mistakes, therefore their narrative is that they are never wrong--if it looks like they are, their surrogates spin relentlessly, flushing the mistake down the memory hole, or going on the attack to draw attention away from what they've done. Their followers accept this because to them Conservatism is a kind of religion that must be accepted as infallible, whole sale, without question. Democrats, however, are more likely to admit their mistakes and take responsibility, accepting whatever criticism they receive as due their infraction. This is spun by the other side as weakness.

Republicans are ruthless and immoral in their pursuit of power. They play dirty tricks and they monopolize the national narrative. Republicans were the first to seize upon the 24-hour news cycle to create their own channel for propaganda. And because loyalty is key to the Republican mentality, their followers flocked there. This put free-market pressure on other cable stations to go partisan. But, again, Republicans are less fickle than Democrats. Look at what happened after the first debate. MSNBC is ostensibly the liberal answer to Fox... however, our pundits freaked out and pissed a lot of us off. But as I explained before, Democrats are more likely to give their honest opinion of a matter whether or not it is sanctioned by the party... therefore, we can never have a dogmatic news outlet like the GOP does in Fox... So: hosts are more liable to tow the party line, and viewers are more likely to accept what is said, and therefore, the Republican viewing bloc is considered more loyal to a station, and is therefore more valuable than us.

This country is literally being conditioned as sheep to the slaughter. By defunding education, monopolizing the media, their entire platform summarized into empty sound-bites, the GOP has tapped into the basic laziness of the American electorate.

[rgbecker]

12. Well put, right on, This needs its own thread.

[Surya Gayatri]

18. Thoughtful and well-written. Why don't you start an OP with this?

[aaaaaa5a]

19. Outstanding! nt

[Hugabear]

11. They have a national network of right-wing propagandists to spread their message 24/7

They have the likes of Glen Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage (who unbelievably is returning to the airwaves), Oliver North, Neil Boortz, Ann Coulter, etc spreading rethug lies and anti-Obama racist messages 24/7.

[Surya Gayatri]

14. Chuck Todd and his ilk are the problem--how do you expect him to explain the phenomenon?

He and all his MSM corporate shills will do and say anything to placate their RW paymasters and maintain the semblance of a "race down to the wire".

[morningfog]

17. The media wants it to appear close for ratings.

That is it pure and simple. If the Democratic candidate were the one trailing, the media would still try to make it appear close.

Honestly, I think both campaigns prefer it to look close, too. It serves as a motivator and prevents feelings of complacency.

[YoungDemCA]

20. I'm not sure they actually do a good job of it...

I think it's more a matter of them and their media cheerleaders living in an alternate reality.

A certain segment of the population (ie the GOP base) will believe anything that right-wing media says. A bigger portion of the population may be GOP-leaning but is more open to persuasion. And then there is the small number of true undecideds.

But, here's the thing-the Democratic demographic base is actually considerably larger than the Republican base. We just have a lot of Democrats who, for whatever reason (apathy, disgust, too busy with life, etc.), don't vote. The Republicans have a greater proportion of their party who vote and are more politically active in general, which means that the right-wing ideologues in the Republican Party have disproportionate influence over the national process.

However, we have the raw numbers on our side-if turnout increases. That, combined with the substantial number of moderate Republicans and Independents who voted for Obama in 2008, is basically why Obama won. Motivation on our side, combined with disgust from people in the political center (directed at the GOP).

Turnout is what will win this election.

[GeorgeGist]

21. They own the Junk Media.