General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOn Fire 'Covid Numbers' Woman makes it onto MSNBC. Shows everyday peeps can Make a HUGE difference.
Link to tweet
Backstory - from reading her few tweets on her tmeline, (@Hill_deeee) I take it her Dad died of Covid.
Not much more information except she rocks
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Original (Thanks to 'Fla Dem' https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215853554):
Link to tweet
Just goes to show everyone of us can Make A Difference.
FakeNoose
(32,342 posts)What are the odds of getting Covid in the USA in 2021?
Unvaxxed
1 in 8 Chance of catching Covid
1 in 61 Chance of dying from Covid
Fully Vaxxed
1 in 13,402 Chance of catching Covid
1 in 86,500 chance of dying from Covid.
Taken from the OP video.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)Numbers with a passion.
I know she is saving a few lives.
FakeNoose
(32,342 posts)She speaks so fast that I was having trouble understanding all the numbers.
Luckily another DUer posted them for all of us.
SmittyWerben
(823 posts)The math is so straight forward and digestible...even for magats.
ffr
(22,645 posts)Tommymac
(7,263 posts)niyad
(112,432 posts)Pinback
(12,134 posts)Good work by Ayman Mohyeldin to feature this on the first episode of his new show.
In the previous thread about this on DU, there was some skepticism expressed about the numbers, but as was pointed out there, she's using confirmed cases and deaths for her calculations.
Although many experts say the real numbers of cases is probably higher than we know (because not everybody who gets COVID is symptomatic or gets tested for it), any attempt to pin a number on those unknown numbers can only be derived from statistical modeling at best, or from an educated guess, at worst -- but not objectively confirmable in either case. So I'm good with estimating risk based on confirmed numbers. That's still not perfect, but certainly better than projections, models, and guesswork.
As @Hill_deeee points out in a Sept. 14th Tweet:
For the COVID information junkies, an excellent source is The Osterholm Update, from Dr. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). Osterholm presents the latest scientific information (and fair warning, each podcast is statistically dense) on the state of the pandemic around the world each week, with an eye to what we can learn from others' experiences. What I really like about his perspective is that he prioritizes concern for human lives over everything else.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)PortTack
(32,606 posts)Her clip appear on msnbc..too bad they didnt show her whole piece.
Shes just a brainiac when it comes to numbers!
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15850226
muriel_volestrangler
(101,150 posts)She says 1 in 8 chance of getting Covid - true (though that is over the 18 months since the pandemic start)
She says 1 in 61 chance of dying from Covid - for those who have caught Covid
Then she uses the number of Covid cases among the fully vaxed - 12,098 out of 173 million, or 1 in 13,402 (though that's over a shorter time period - between 8 months and very recent, depending on the person)
Then she says there have been about 2,000 deaths from Covid among the fully vaxed, and says that's 1 in 86,500 of all the fully vaxed.
But, she ends up comparing the 1 in 61 to the 1 in 86,500. That's wrong; she should compare 1 in 61 times 8 (from the 1 in 8), or 1 in 488, to 1 in 86,500. And that's not looking at the difference in time period.
So, no, she's not really good with numbers. A much better job was done by the professionals, as linked to here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215849749
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021
They gave:
Deaths from non-covid causes for the fully vaxxed over the period in which they could have been fully vaxxed
Deaths from covid for the fully vaxxed over the period in which they could have been fully vaxxed
Deaths from non-covid causes for the unvaxxed over the same period
Deaths from covid for the unvaxxed over the same period
That means they're comparing the same numbers of people for covid and non-covid deaths, so that allows a fair comparison. It comes out as 0.8% covid deaths for fully vaxxed to 37.4% covid deaths unvaxxed. This is still obviously evidence the vaccine is brilliant at preventing death, but it's accurate. Her numbers aren't.
On edit: those numbers are for the UK, and don't distinguish Delta variant from others. Here's a recent analysis of US numbers for Delta:
Unvaccinated Americans have died at 11 times the rate of those fully vaccinated since the delta variant became the dominant strain, indicate surveillance data gathered over the summer by the US Centers for Disease Control.
Vaccinated people were 10 times less likely to be admitted to hospital and five times less likely to be infected than unvaccinated people, found one study that tracked adults across 13 states and cities.1
Levels of protection were lower than were conferred by vaccines offered at the end of spring, the study found. Vaccine efficacy has declined since the delta variant became dominant around 20 June. The decline in efficacy against hospital admission or death was small, but the protection offered against infection has slipped more significantly.
From 4 April to 20 June unvaccinated people died from covid-19 at 16.6 times the rate among the fully vaccinated (95% confidence interval 13.5 to 20.4). Between 20 June and 17 July that rate fell to 11.3 (9.1 to 13.9). Before 20 June admissions of unvaccinated people with covid-19 to hospital were running at 13.3 (11.3 to 15.6) times the rate among the vaccinated, but this had fallen to 10.4 (8.1 to 13.3) after that date.
Unvaccinated people were infected at 11.1 (7.8 to 15.8) times the rate of the vaccinated before 20 June but at only 4.6 (2.5 to 8.5) times the rate thereafter.
These figures represent declines in crude efficacy, for all vaccine types combined, from 94% to 91% for death, 92% to 90% for hospital admissions, and 91% to 78% for infection.
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2282
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)They are in the ballpark. Highly accurate? Not.
She wants regular people to get emotional and think about the huge disparity between unvaxxed and vaxxed. And she is doing a DAMN good job. I bet she has saved more then a few lives.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,150 posts)Yes, she's emotional, but the numbers are not "good enough". It would be far more accurate if she just said "a shitload more" unvaccinated people have died.
walpurgis
(40 posts)this made me cry about the kids losing there parents from the selfish unvaccinated. Get shot and be real americans who stick together when the going gets tough. Lets do this because that's what real americans do
malaise
(267,804 posts)Give her Andrea Mitchell's job
calimary
(80,693 posts)Upthevibe
(7,879 posts)She is AMAZING!
Thank you to whoever the DU'er was who originally posted this and thank you for posting this thread of her on the MSNBC show from today.
I wouldn't be surprised if Rachel didn't have it on her show as well....
IronLionZion
(45,256 posts)it still blows my mind how we are number one in the world for catching and dying of COVID.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,150 posts)(and maybe because India's testing for Covid has been really bad, so many deaths there may be from covid, but not recorded as such).
Per capita, Peru is worst; Italy is also worse than the USA, from the G7 countries.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
In terms of the proportion of excess deaths compared to the usual number of deaths, the USA is the worst in the G7 (Italy has an older population, so it's "usual" death rate is higher). But several developing countries (eg Peru) are worse.
IronLionZion
(45,256 posts)and try to beat Peru and Italy
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)If it were it's own country... that's where it would rank in the World.
Second WORST.