Josh Marshall: Kyrsten Sinema's Final Senate Term

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/kyrsten-sinemas-final-senate-term


Like many people I spent a lot of time trying to figure out Kyrsten Sinema’s motivations this year. I’ve discussed my conclusions in other posts. But what I’ve focused on more recently is that as near as I can see, unless she shifts her stance pretty dramatically the odds of Sinema being elected to a second Senate term in 2024 are pretty poor. And that’s made me consider another question: does she just misread the politics of her situation that badly or is she not planning on running?

I know I’ve thrown out a few pretty dramatic claims. So let me walk you through my reasoning. Because I think it’s pretty solid.

2020 was the last election cycle in which it was possible to run for Senate as a Democrat and support retaining the legislative filibuster in something like its current form. That may not apply in West Virginia. But I’m pretty sure it applies in the 49 other states. Sure, not every Democrat cares a lot about the filibuster. Some don’t know what it is. But certainly among active politically engaged Democrats it is close to the central issue of politics. And it’s really not a left-right thing. It’s that central because pretty much whatever your big issue is it’s the filibuster that stands in the way – whether it’s climate, jobs and fiscal policy, choice, immigration, labor. Anything and everything.

I feel like I’ve got a pretty good handle on the dynamics of Democratic primaries. And I think the debate in which you say that you support the filibuster because we’ve all got to come together and bipartisanship … well, I think that’s the day your campaign ends.

*snip*

[wryter2000]

1. You're onto something

Howard Dean has predicted she’ll be primaried. Quote: “Maybe she doesn’t like being in the Senate.”

[joetheman]

4. Maybe she doesn't like being a Democrat? nt

[wackadoo wabbit]

21. The fact that she'll be primaried is a given

A couple of notable Democrats — including, as I recall, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs — have made noises that they might run against her.

I'm in Arizona, and, honestly, I know of absolutely no one who plans on voting for her again. She's finished. If the Democratic leadership plans on supporting her, we'll lose her seat.

[CrispyQ]

2. She is not a serious person.

And currently, she's terribly full of herself. I think her congressional career is going to be short.

[Rebl2]

11. Figured that

out after her little cutesy curtsy she did early this year.

[BComplex]

41. That curtsy was a slap in the face to any democrats that voted for her.

But the republican money is loving her. And as others have said, I don't understand what her motivations are.

[DFW]

34. That's the impression I get from her, too

That’s why I call her Senator Cinema

[CrispyQ]

35. Good one! -nt

[hlthe2b]

3. Good piece, but even Marshall can't venture a guess on her motivations/strategy...

I'm beginning to surmise that she may well not have one (strategy).

[NCDem47]

5. No strategy IS a strategy!

[Celerity]

8. she wears her strategy on her finger

[LW1977]

18. Definitely looks like that Karen who tossed her groceries out of her cart in a violent fit.

[Bucky]

28. I think she thinks she's Harley Quinn

Turns out being a comic book character in a serious job wears thin pretty damn quick

[LiberalFighter]

42. She is not all there.

[leftieNanner]

9. $174,000 a year salary

That's a possible strategy.

[Trueblue1968]

39. please let her be primaried by a good, intelligent, high morals person WHO WILL WIN !!!

[FalloutShelter]

6. I think she wants to be on

The View. She wants to be a “celebrity “ not a legislator.

[NurseJackie]

19. Yeah ... Celebrity politicians...

... the worst, right.

[FalloutShelter]

20. Ha!

[panader0]

7. I told her that months ago in an e-mail.

Back when she did her little curtsy thumbs down vote on the minimum wage.
Soon followed by that weird photo of her sipping a wine cocktail with '60's Mod clothes.
She has turned her back on her constituents. I told her that I'd vote against her this time.

[drmeow]

10. She used to be my rep

and I voted for her enthusiastically. I left AZ before she ran for Senate but supported her enthusiastically from afar. If I was still in AZ, I would absolutely support a primary challenge. I have a good friend who held campaign fund raising events for her - I'm afraid to ask him if he will continue to do so cause I don't know if I can be polite if he says yes.

[Goodheart]

14. She OBVIOUSLY needs to be primaried.

No way can she win again.

[Irish_Dem]

12. She obviously doesn't care.

There must be something else waiting for her, a better offer.

[Goodheart]

13. I don't think she cares about winning another term.

She's playing this for the money now and the money that comes after she leaves office.

[wackadoo wabbit]

22. Exactly this /nt

[Bucky]

29. She's the Democratic Alberto Gonzales

Her incompetence on the job hurts innocent people, but she sticks to her role and plays it out without any real imagination. Then in the final act of her little show, there's no job offers, no fame, and no future. Her only legacy will be the opportunities she's squandered and the people she's hurt.

[vsrazdem]

15. She obviously doesn't care about running, otherwise she would not be

agains the drug plan for Medicare to negotiate drug prices in a state where almost 25% are seniors. Good luck getting their vote.

[Bucky]

16. On the one hand, it's high time the flaky fuck-ups of society got represented in Washington

On the downside, she's screwing around with the fate of the nation when we literally have no margin for error in preventing disaster.

I just don't understand how taking responsibility went out of fashion.

[ChazInAz]

17. She's the one vote I'll always regret.

My suspicion is that she's a GQP ringer.

[onenote]

31. Who do you wish you voted for?

McSally?

[ChazInAz]

32. Certainly not.

I have had personal experience with McSally. She'd never get my vote.
I actually did some GOTV work for Synema, and regret it now. She put up a good front and fooled us all.
I also voted for Kelly, and have no regrets about him.
Who do you think I would have voted for? That's an odd question for DU.

[yellowdogintexas]

33. aka "The Crazy Lady" (from my daughter who lives in Arizona) nt

[tenderfoot]

37. I fail to see much of a difference between them.

Last edited Tue Sep 21, 2021, 01:36 PM - Edit history (1)

Two sides of the same coin. Neither good.

[onenote]

38. Well, Sinema has voted for every one of Joe's judicial nominees

Some of which only had 50 votes.

So maybe that should count for something when you compare Sinema to any Republican.

[Joinfortmill]

23. Agree

[mushroomhunter]

24. WTH

can't fathom how she attained this position - will be happy to see her go and her little curtsy too

[Corgigal]

25. She is working today,

for her job of tomorrow. She is using her taxpayer funded salary for her audition.

[ShazzieB]

26. I hope whoever primaries her uses that curtsey in their campaign ads.

She thought she was very clever when she wore that "Fuck off" ring, but the curtsey was a great big "Fuck YOU" to
everyone who voted for her, imo. If Arizona Dems say "Fuck you" to her in the 2024 primary, it will be poetic justice.

[3catwoman3]

27. Jeff Flake retired, but Arizona still has...

…a Senator Flake.

She is an airhead.

[BannonsLiver]

30. I find her very to be unusual, and perhaps not in a way that's altogether good.

I’ll avoid the attacks on her appearance up thread, however.

[themaguffin]

36. Her flippant thumbs down vote said it all. F her.

[former9thward]

40. Somebody should tell the National Democratic party.

I live in the Phoenix area and they run commercials promoting her everyday on multiple channels.

[LiberalFighter]

43. Josh Marshall had headline wrong.

It should had been Kyrsten Sinema's Only Senate Term

[radius777]

44. She doesn't get it, AZ is not a red state.

Manchin's gyrations can at least be explained by the fact that he's in a deep red state, but AZ is a purple state that Dems have now won several recent statewide elections (Sinema, Kelly, Biden, Hobbs) in.

Politics have been nationalized as explained in the article, where even moderate Dem voters expect an elected Dem to fight for the overall goals of the party, and especially to support a Dem president in Biden who is about as mainstream and establishment as it gets.

Sinema is not going to win a primary in a state that has several high profile Dems such as SoS Katie Hobbs or Rep. Ruben Gallego who could challenge her.