Pramila Jayapal on Rachel show now.

[elleng]

(Today is her birthday.)

[brooklynite]

1. Threatening to scuttle Biden's Infrastructure Bill if the progressive's demands aren't dealt with.

Link to tweet

[malaise]

2. You got that wrong n/t

[elleng]

4. Thanks

[brooklynite]

5. Please correct me.

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

10. It is not wrong. That is exactly what is happening...and for what? We have a 50 50 Senate...maybe

should consider running against Republicans and not primary Democrats. It was moderates who gave us the House and if they lose which they are likely to without the bipartisan bill being passed, we will lose our majority. I personally will never forgive any of them including but not limited to Jayapal if they vote that bill down on Monday.

[Demsrule86]

6. How is it wrong? The House has no control over the Senate.

If the progressives do this...it will be as bad as when Hillary lost...Joe Biden ran on bipartisanship...to not pass that bill will cost us the House and the Senate...and for nothing because we get nothing. And Biden's presidency is basically over...we spend the next however many years trying to keep the government going and fighting off endless investigations...and I don't even know if we will even have a Republic in 24.

[qazplm135]

13. Just like the moderates

Are threatening to scuttle the reconciliation bill. Let's not pretend the threats only come from one side.

[malaise]

14. Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Both bills are Biden's agenda

[qazplm135]

15. Sure

And the progressives are still ready to pass both bills. How about the moderates?

[malaise]

17. Precisely

[JohnSJ]

19. Are the progressives willing to take less than 3.5 trillion reconciliation bill? Are the moderates

willing to accept the 3.5 trillion reconciliation bill?

Spectators can do all the finger pointing they want, but in the end this is what it comes down to, and unless each side is willing to bend, the question that may present itself in 2022 is that in the current state of affairs, if the Democrats cannot agree, and compromise among themselves, why should the public believe this is the party to lead the country?

Of course there are issues which all will agree on. Voting rights, roe v wade, etc., but if they cannot work out something that will help improve people’s lives, How can we persuade people to vote Democratic in 2022?

[qazplm135]

23. If Manchin said

2.9 trillion or some symbolic but still substantive cut to put a 2 instead of a 3 in front of it, the progressives would complain but ultimately go along with it.

If it's 1-1.5 then yeah you're probably going to be have a problem because that's less than half.

If it's what Sinema and several Dems are reportedly threatening...vote for the bipartisan bill or zero...then yeah, one side is more responsible than the other.

I defend moderates and centrists all of the time, usually over on Kos. I'm not an AOC, Squad or Bernie superfan. But this time? Sorry, the progressives to my mind have compromised a lot more this go around than the other side.

[JohnSJ]

28. Those in Congress know what the stakes are. I don't follow the progress of this anymore. It

either will happen or not, and my bet is something will happen

In other words I think both will pass in some form

[Bettie]

40. Right, the progressives recognize that if they pass the first one without the reconciliation bill

there will be no reconciliation bill.

That is what the 'moderates' want. Nothing beyond the first relatively small bill.

[Celerity]

20. Manchin and Sinema and the Rethugs already ripped out almost 80% of Biden's new spend

and tax incentives from the 'bi-partisan' bill. Ripped out $2.05 trillion of Biden's $2.6 trillion proposal. If the 96 strong Progressive Caucus (biggest Dem Caucus in Congress) gives away the only leverage they have, Manchin and Sinema will gut the reconciliation bill like a trout, or never even bring it up (look at what Manchin is doing now, saying it needs to wait until 2022).

When I watch US streams of MSNBC and CBB, I am seeing so so many adverts pumping up all these wonderful thinngs from the Biden agenda.

If we let 2 conservedem Senators and the 10 renegade Problem Solvers (most all of whom, btw, tried to scupper Pelosi as Speaker) conservadems in the House dictate to Biden and the other 258 or so Dems in both chambers as to what parts of the entire Biden agenda remain, the vast majority of all those great things in the adverts will end up in the ditch, as will our hopes for 2022. A shit tonne already have been sliced from the bi-partisan bill already.

Some on here are already pushing a false choice dilemma via positing that not passing the bi-partisan bill first means it is dead. It is not. What is dead, however, is pretty much any real leverage Biden and the rest of the caucus have to ensure a far better reconciliation bill (or even any reconciliation bill given Manchin new posturing).

Spread out over 10 years, the bi-partisan bill has only $55 billion per year in new spend on Biden's agenda, with vast parts completely or nearly completely expunged.

55 billion usd per year.

In 2020 the US government total spend was basically 120 TIMES larger.

https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/spending/




Even IF Manchin and Sinema do not push the reconciliation off until 2022, it may well have $2 to 2.5 trillion stripped out from it as well. Almost all the climate change/green jobs/tech/renewables parts are gone from the bi-partisan bill, and Manchin is gunning to do the same for the reconciliation bill. Plus a shedload more cuts.

Again, do not forget that $2.05 trillion was already stripped out of Biden's proposal for the bi-partisan bill, total new infrastructure spending is only $550 billion (the other $650 billion is just renewal of old already-passed spending programmes under Trump and Moscow McTurtle).

The Infrastructure Plan: What’s In and What’s Out (it's brutal)

Biden's original plan:



What was left after they took a 2 trillion USD hatchet to it




They already chopped almost EIGHTY percent of actual new spending out of the hard infrastructure bill

and now Manchin wants to chop another almost 60 to 70% out of the even bigger bill, one that needs ZERO Rethugs votes to pass


The total new spending on Biden's original 2 bill proposals (hard and human) was $6.1 trillion.

IF Manchin and Sinema stick to their guns and chop out $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion of of the reconciliation bill, then you are looking at a total new spend for both bills of only $1.55 trillion to $2.05 trillion instead of $6.1 trillion.

That is a truly massive 2/3rds to 3/4ers total reduction in new spending, and the vast majority will be from the parts the largest single Democratic caucus in the House (the 96 person-strong Progressive Caucus) all desperately wanted, especially things to address climate change and to help working class Americans. Pete DeFazio, the Chair of the House Transportation Committee has been very, very unhappy for ages about what the bi-partisan Senators did.

It is madness for the rest of the Caucus to allow 12 people out of 270, 12 who are very much OUT of the mainstream in terms of our Democratic Caucus (2 of the 12 even endorsed and/or fundraised for Republicans, one of which was a racist, climate change denialist MAGAt (John Carter in TX, enforced and fundraised for by forced birther Dem Henry Cuellar, also in TX) to quite possibly succeed in stripping out 4 to 4.5 trillion USD between the 2 bills. That is an utter shredding of Biden's agenda. And that assumes that we even see a vote on the reconciliation package.

[brooklynite]

18. The reconciliation bill hasn't been passed by the Senate.

The House can pass the Infrastructure Bill tomorrow and give Biden a win.

Or we can try to not pass either.

[Celerity]

21. false choice dilemma

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15882381

[qazplm135]

25. or we could pass both

there's actually three options.

One side, the progressives are ON BOARD with passing both.

One side, is not.

So you've laid out a false set of choices by excluding one, and no it's only a win to a small chunk of voters. It's not a win to progressives.

Biden needs moderates, yep.

Guess who he ALSO needs?

Prioritizing moderates over progressives isn't a winning formula, because while you need moderates to vote to win, you get the energy and organizing and pure turnout from the progressive side.

We ALL know what's going to happen if the infrastructure bill passes, the House moderates and Sinema will say, no need to vote for the reconciliation bill, sorry, it's too much.

And progressives get NOTHING. And Biden gets a hollow "win."

Biden knows this, which is why he's pushing so hard for BOTH. Winning one and not the other is not enough. And guess what, Biden isn't in the next election, and House Dems need EVERYONE to have a slim shot at retaining the majority that history says they will lose. Senate as well. You don't get that by catering only to moderates. You get a lot of progressives sitting home in a non-presidential, Trump ain't on the ballot election.

Which means Biden gets nothing accomplished his last two years, no more judges because we know McConnell will simply block them all, nothing.

So you can think short term "win" or you can think long term success.

[brooklynite]

33. "Prioritizing moderates over progressives isn't a winning formula"

We won the House in 2018 on the basis of MODERATE Democrats winning in competitive suburban districts.

We won the Senate in 2020 on the basis of MODeRATE Democrats winning in Arizona and Colorado (our wins in Georgia were helped by Trump telling Republican voters not to bother)

We won the White House by nominating a MODERATE candidate rather than a progressive one.

[qazplm135]

35. We won because

Everyone was energized. You don't think progressives turned out to vote for those moderates?! What happens next time if some of them stay home?

Biden has CERTAINLY pushed a whole lot of progressive policies so far...but apparently you know more than he does.

Your attitude towards progressives is why we are likely to lose in 22. You think it's the moderate way or nothing and if they don't like it suck it up.

Good luck getting activists out in 22 with that approach.

[brooklynite]

36. "You think it's the moderate way or nothing"

...as opposed to "it's the progressive way or nothing" which what the Squad and its allies seem to be demanding.

[qazplm135]

37. Uh the progressive crowd

has ALREADY signed on to passing BOTH bills.

[brooklynite]

39. ...but won't vote for the Infrastructure Bill until the Reconciliation Bill is voted on.

[qazplm135]

43. because they know once they do

the reconciliation bill WON'T pass.

Of the two groups, which has committed to voting for BOTH bills?

[Bettie]

41. And the one that is currently awaiting a vote was

a huge compromise.

Moderates never seem to be asked to compromise, if they want cuts or gutting of a bill, it happens.

If progressives ask for things that will actually make the lives of human people better...well, it's "We don't have money for that, now here are some more giveaways for corporations!"

[Demsrule86]

22. The House moderates do not have the power to pass reconciliation...the Senate has to do that...

And with Manchin and Sinema, it is unlikely. Thus we get what we can and come back for more after the midterms or when a deal can be reached.

[qazplm135]

26. Manchin will vote for reconciliation

Sinema is a harder problem, but MOST of them want the bipartisan bill.

You pass the bipartisan bill, when you "come back" after the midterms:

a. You probably don't have both houses of Congress
b. even if by some miracle you do, progressives have zero leverage over moderates who are prone to say, eh, we're good, we don't need a reconciliation bill.

To win the midterms, we need moderates to come out AND we need progressives to be energized.
Now maybe you think they SHOULD be energized but what you think they should do isn't what will happen. They will see moderates getting 100 percent, progressives getting zero and they say, huh, clearly you don't really need us then...and sit home.

We had something for everyone. Progressives are on board with that plan. Biden is on board for that plan. There's ZERO reasons for the moderates to not be on board with that plan.

[Demsrule86]

32. Did progressives give us the majority in either the house or the Senate?

The moderates recognize that there are not enough votes to pass reconciliation....we can't not won't pass the bill. They understand , you have to pass something before the midterm to have any chance of retaining the majority. The battle for control will be fought in moderate states and districts not in deep blue states and districts. We have a chance in Ohio to win a Senate seat for example and in Pennsylvania too.

[qazplm135]

38. uh yeah they did

how many moderates do you think win those close races without progressives voting for them?

Fund raising for them?

It boils down to this, you want progressives to, again, suck it up for the moderates, who you don't think have to make any compromises.

That's not how it works, and if it is, then guess what, progressives are going to sit home. And we lose. And your "win" is meaningless.

There are votes for the reconciliation bill if the moderates vote for it, just like there's votes for the bipartisan bill if progressives vote for it.

You only seem to be holding progressives to task but not moderates, why is that?

[Bettie]

42. So, what you seem to be saying is that

moderates can win every seat in the country without a single progressive voting anywhere. Progressives didn't even contribute to having the majority....only moderates!

Wow, I didn't realize they were so mighty.

So, maybe you should put your energies toward removing all of the hated progressives from your party so they can win ALL of the elections on their own!

[msongs]

3. I'd like to see her list of repubs senators who will vote for her proposals nt

[Demsrule86]

7. It doesn't matter if any GOP_ types vote for it...if the Democrats stay together they can at least

pass the bipartisan bill and when the next bridge falls down, we will be blamed if we don't. This is a tragic mistake.

[dsc]

8. so basically the poor inhabitants of our liberal districts will see benefit cuts

to pay for roads they will never use that will benefit Repubilcans more than them.

[Demsrule86]

11. How many benefit cuts will poor inhabitants see with McConnell and McCarthy in charge?

We need to work on infrastructure; we lose so much money with poor roads , and that bill has other good stuff in it too...I am beyond furious...to walk away from a bipartisan bill when Biden ran on this is disgraceful...we will be lucky if our republic survives.

[qazplm135]

27. you think we keep them out of power

by pissing off progressives right before we need them to turn out?

Guess what...they'll be "beyond furious" too.

Now, clearly you don't think t hey should be...well guess what, they don't think you should be either.

So, we can deal with reality or not.

The reality is, if you don't have moderates AND progressives energized, you lose badly in 22.

There's no way around that.

That's why this path by Biden, Schumer and Pelosi was so perfect. Both sides got something.

Now a small handful of folks want their stuff and pound sand for the rest, and you think that's a formula for success in 2022??

[Demsrule86]

29. I think if progressives put the GOP back in power because we dont have the numbers needed

to pass the reconciliation bill than we will have to moveb to the right not the left and elect more moderates so as to regain the majority. One would think, some would have learned their lesson in 10 where Pres, Obama was stabbed in the back because they couldn't get a public option. And we got nothing for six long years...and then some doubled down and refused to vote for Hillary. And we now have 700,000 people dead and a 6-3 SCOTUS.

[Demsrule86]

30. Oh BS... if keeping the GOP out of power and saving a woman's right to choose and the

many other really important policies isn't enough than nothing will ever be enough. And we will have to find more loyal voters to help us obtain and/or retain a majority. As a progressive, I hate this. But enough is enough. I tire of the threats.

[msongs]

9. I'd like to see her list of dems who will support ending the filibuster to make passage possible nt

[Demsrule86]

12. That is the fucking Senate, Nancy Pelosi has no say in that...and we know that both Manchin and

Sinema are not going to vote to end the filibuster. So we show them and walk away with nothing and lose the midterm...That will teach them. You can't play power games if you don't have the power...we have a 50 50 Senate. If we stick together we can get the bipartisan bill passed and maybe civil rights too...and I think we have a good shot at winning the midterms...so we come back with a stronger majority...cutting off your nose to spite your face is what this is all about right now and it is very shortsighted and foolish.

[RayStar]

16. Happy Birthday

Rep. Jayapal was very informative.

[JHB]

24. I'm just going to add that what counts as as "moderate"...

...is only because conservatives have pulled the Overton Window so far to the right that "moderate" falls a bit short of actual moderation.

[Demsrule86]

31. Look at the states we need to win in in order to hold a majority ...that has pulled us to the right.

[JHB]

34. I didn't say we didn't need the votes. What I objected to was calling them "moderates"

Because they're not.