Meeting with a longest of long shots today...

[brooklynite]

Charles Booker is a KY legislator who ran for the Democratic nom against Mitch McConnell (lost to Amy McGrath) and is now running against Rand Paul. I'll give him a chance to make a case, but from what I can see, KY voters still LIKE Paul and Trump.

Going in to 2022, I'm going to be focusing on holding GA, AZ and NH, and looking at pickups in WI, NC and PA.

[ananda]

1. I wish Booker had a chance against Paul.

I think I will still donate to him though.

[brooklynite]

2. The money you donate to Booker (absent a significant change in political fortune)....

....is money you didn't donate to a race with a much higher chance of victory.

[MoonlitKnight]

11. I think some early money is helpful

If he can stick to COVID-19 as a message. We know he can turn out our base. If he peels away enough others over the next six months and can make it competitive then more investment is justified. Otherwise better spent elsewhere.

We tend to wait and see on long shots to the point that it’s self fulfilling. But generally I agree that money is better spent on races that are winnable.

[brooklynite]

12. FWIW: Amy McGrath's campaign didn't lack money, it lacked votes.

As for COVID, how is that a compelling message in Kentucky (vax rate=53%)

[MoonlitKnight]

14. The hope is that more people come to their senses

It’s a long shot anyway. Hopefully over the next six months enough people snap out of it and realize that COVID denial is crazy. If not I agree the race is probably not winnable.

[ananda]

15. There's a point there, but I can still donate to them.

I also donated to McGrath. I'm not sorry.

[kentuck]

3. I think he has a good chance.

It's always about turnout in KY. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans but Republicans seem to turn out more often. Maybe not, the next election?

[Elessar Zappa]

8. A large amount of registered Democrats

in Kentucky are more like Dixiecrats and haven’t voted for a Democrat in years.

[Tetrachloride]

4. Wisconsin is not a guaranteed pickup

1. Reds in strong control of state legislature.
2. Reds in strong control of WI Supreme Court, usually
3. Wisconsin doesn’t have homegrown star power. Last year, cast of Princess Bride donated their time
4. Red voters are more consistent than blue voters in Wisconsin
5. There is no permanent GOTV base of operations in much of Wisconsin. an office.

[brooklynite]

5. If it was "guaranteed", I wouldn't put money in either...

Its certainly more competitive than Kentucky.

[Elessar Zappa]

7. Of course it's not guaranteed but

we have a shot there and should do everything possible to pick up that seat.

[LymphocyteLover]

13. Nothing is guaranteeed but I still like our chances in WI

1-3 doesn't mean much for a state-wide race and an open seat.

the state Democratic chair, Ben Wikler, has been effective and is good at GOTV.

[gab13by13]

6. Wasn't Rand Paul mentioned,

in the 6 point coup strategy as a voice for support for the coup? I guess that may be a plus for Rand being a part of a coup.

[brooklynite]

9. Poll: Trump maintains strong support in Kentucky amid impeachment trial

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/538356-poll-trump-maintains-strong-support-in-kentucky-amid-impeachment-trial

A majority of Kentucky voters do not want to see the Senate convict former President Trump of inciting an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, according to a new survey from Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.

A slight majority of respondents — 51 percent — said they would oppose Trump’s conviction in his impeachment trial should the Senate find him guilty of stoking an effort by his supporters to storm the Capitol and disrupt the congressional certification of the Electoral College vote last month.

[obamanut2012]

10. I think our best bets are WI and PA, with NC a decent chance