Polls - an observation

[Coexist]

Have you noticed not only the media, but us.. here on DU and the other liberal users of the tubes, have this strange propensity:

When Romney is tied or ahead by a few points, we seem to assume a state is lost.

When Obama is up by 3 - 5 points (outside the margin of error) we stress about how close it is.

It's really odd. Obama is never "ahead" just "less behind". What's up with that?

[LisaL]

1. Some assume the state is lost even when polls show Romney is behind by a point or two.

[dennis4868]

2. Yep

Like the PPP poll for OH today!

[Wellstone ruled]

3. Let's see here,

8 advertising days left.

News media charges highest rates in last 10 days of cycle.

News media profits suck before campaign starts.

News media needs to justify rates.

News media creates false positives to justify rates.

News media owns or partners with polling firms.

News media predetermines outcomes of said polls,by stacked questions.

News media creates Horse race to make huge profits.

News media goes back to bashing Obama after he is reelected.

Same sh*it,just a new day. Go Obama!!!!!

[Igel]

4. Different election, different fallacy.

Last time I expected Obama to win by at least 500% of the vote. Every time his poll numbers went up, people went frantic at the increase. Poll number drops weren't even noticed. 5% increase this week, 3% next week, 6% two weeks after, 3% after that ... after a year, they all add up.

Another election was deep into the "statistical tie" game. When the Democrat was ahead by 2 points, he was clearly ahead by 2 points. When the (R) was ahead by 2 points, there was great parsing of the numbers to show that this was really a statistical tie.

Both of those showed optimism, at least, in their silliness. Some sort of enthusiasm was in evidence. Some "pro" thinking as opposed to mostly "anti".

I must say, I have a lot less enthusiasm. The "ask not what you can do for your country" attitude is long gone and we revel more in bashing others to help our own than looking forward. I noted month ago that US politics have become a universe of petty things, where we aspire to mimic systems that have already developed cracks because when we first aspired to mimic those systems they were pure and pristine and decide that what's right in any what situation is the want that we think is needed now.