Joe Manchin just minutes ago issued a new and important statement

[NewsCenter28]

Link to tweet

/photo/1

My first reaction of rage, upon parsing it paragraph by paragraph, gives way to me believing he is actually committing to a reconciliation package of some sort in this statement. Despite his grandiose language, this is a good step. What say you? Am I reading him wrong?

[tritsofme]

1. I don't think he covered any new ground.

[Takket]

2. the only statement that matters is the "yes" or "no" you make on the floor

the rest is just words

[Bleacher Creature]

3. I'm still convinced they will just cut the number of years to make the top line look smaller.

Again, though, nobody ever seems to care about debt when we cut the taxes of large corporations and billionaires.

[RainCaster]

4. Same old shit...

My donors don't like it, so I can't vote for it, no matter how many of my constituents want this.

[bluewater]

7. Bingo!

[AZSkiffyGeek]

5. He has SOME legit points

I agree with some and disagree with some of what he says, and I don't like his vagueries, but I agree he does seem to be supportive of the reconciliation bill in general.
I'm not sure where his 5.4T number came from though.

[qazplm135]

24. he appears to be adding up

3.5 plus 1.9 the reconciliation bill plus the COVID bill and saying that's 5.4 it's too much.
Which is hilarious because the latter was 1.9 THIS year while the former is 350 billion THIS year since it is over ten years.

He's torpedoing something that is not even a fifth of what he voted for this Spring.

Never mind...those numbers add up but clearly he's talking about some other spending that I have no idea what, or he's confused.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

33. I know - that makes no sense

Unless he's figuring in the stimulus from last year?
But the numbers haven't made sense to me for most of the year.
Biden wanted like 2.5-3T initially? But that included both the bipartisan infrastructure and BBB?
Then, after it was pared down to the bipartisan bill, suddenly we're talking about 6T from Bernie.
Which was cut to 3.5, and then presented as what Biden wanted all along?
And now it sounds like Sinema/Manchin want to cut it down to 1.5T or so? Which would put it back around the 2.5-3T.

I dunno. I'd like to see Manchin produce SOMETHING he wants, but I don't believe he's deliberately sinking the bill for McConnell. He's playing politics and doing exactly the same thing Jaypal is doing.

And as someone who has frequently apologized (or at least explained) about Sinema, I'm REALLY hoping she keeps her mouth shut right now.

[qazplm135]

34. I think you are wrong

1. Sinema reportedly doesn't want to raise income taxes at all. That's effectively saying, no bill. You can't pass a bill for five dollars if you aren't willing to pay for it, much less anything with a trillion next to it.
2. Manchin is pretty clear in this statement that he doesn't want a reconciliation bill at all.
3. Jayapal has been very clear that progressives are willing to negotiate. Do they want 3.5? Yes. Will they be pissed they had to carve it down? Yes. Will they vote for 1.5 trillion or whatnot? Yes.

I don't think it's the same. One side is begging the other to state their terms and willing to give both sides something, the other side is saying, maybe, after you agree to our demands.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

35. Not raising income taxes and not raising taxes are not the same

But at the same time there needs to be something to negotiate. Right now the counteroffers are vaporware.

[qazplm135]

41. her only proposal was a carbon tax

which is laughable and she knows it. Manchin would never agree to it, and it's almost impossible to make much money off it AND avoid taxing anyone making less than 400K a year.

There's no magical way to raise appreciable amounts of money other than income taxation. If there were, we'd have done it already.

[Dave says]

25. He has no "legit points"

This is a $350 billion a year investment in the American people. The returns will be massive, resulting in a net zero to dramatically positive value.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

31. Inflation is a legit concern

If you don't think so you're deluding yourself. It may get better, there are some economists who think it will, but Yellen just sent up a warning cry earlier this week.

[Fiendish Thingy]

42. Inflation is not a legit concern in connection with this bill

The Fed is tapering stimulus, and will begin hiking rates next year, which will cool inflation significantly.

The reconciliation bill is 80% paid for as proposed, and if cuts are made to the spending side, it could be 100% paid for, so no inflationary pressure from borrowing. The only inflationary impact from the reconciliation bill is all the good paying jobs that are created could pump a lot of money into the economy and trigger some inflation.

You’re not suggesting we should sacrifice millions of good paying jobs just because groceries might cost more?

[Dave says]

48. The right has been singing the inflation tune...

… for decades. It has never materialized.

To the degree there is risk now it’s pandemic/supply-chain related. Just the other day there was a story in the Post about some 30 giant container ships anchored outside of an LA port, unable to deliver goods (from computer chips to table cloths). The reason? Too few laborers to work the port. Labor is still pinched as we’re still in the midst of a pandemic. The result is a corresponding supply chain pinch that first showed up in producer prices and now is rippling through consumer prices.

To illustrate from personal experience, I sought a bid to build a detached garage in my city home. The summer prior to the pandemic, the same company/same design bid $22k. I turned it down then. I sought it again last summer, this time the bid was $43k. Mostly due to lumber prices. A board that cost $8 two years ago cost $50 this summer. Why? We still had the same number of trees to harvest. But less people were willing to cut them down; less workers to mill them down; fewer people willing to receive inventory for the general market, and so forth. The shrinking supply caused prices to shoot up. The cause had/has nothing to do with Manchin’s “fiscal insanity” scare. Prices will again stabilize when we return to full employment.

There is the risk that an “inflation expectation” settles into markets (as it did in the seventies), but I think this is less likely as the labor supply works itself out and returns to pre-pandemic levels.

Just my two cents.

[ramblin_dave]

6. NBC News Senior Capitol Hill Correspondent says...

Link to tweet

[vanlassie]

9. Joe, what was your BRUTAL RHETORIC about the

Tax cut for your buddies?

[NewsCenter28]

13. See that was my initial reaction

But I thought "calm down, maybe you are being hyperbolic, as usual." If true, he basically endorsed Trump '24, today, and decided to destroy the Biden Presidency

[riversedge]

15. Manchin is still a NO vote.

[Dave says]

26. A solid No

[Just_Vote_Dem]

47. I've never heard talk like this from a Democrat before n/t

[DanieRains]

8. Hey Joe Manchin - If Billionaires Paid Taxes Like Us Working Folks We Would Have No Problems

Letting billionaires off the hook, and having the rest of us pay for their pollution is fiscal stupidity.

[Dave says]

10. No, it's neo-feudalism

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

11. I think...

...he'll keep dangling the carrot until time runs out. DEMS should keep trying to get this done, but we need to go on and focus on a HUGE PR/marketing package based on voters registration and progressive policies.

Manchin, Sinema, and the media will continue to win this battle until we move the "$3.5t" title from the center of the discussion and focus on what the bill actually contains. It's easy to vote against this "daunting" number, but it won't be as easy if we actually broke down what the bill contains.
The bill contains funding for:
-bridge investment
-clean drinking water
-airport repair, etc.

All we hear about, though, is "$3.5t".

For some reason, we refuse to talk specifics of this bill.

[Klaralven]

44. Most of that funding is in the $1.2 T infrastructure bill, not the $3.5 T reconciliation bill

Understanding the Infrastructure Bills

https://www.investopedia.com/here-s-what-s-in-the-usd1-trillion-infrastructure-bill-passed-by-the-senate-5196817

The latter contains things like:

$1.8 trillion for the Finance Committee. This part of the bill is for investments in working families, the elderly, and the environment. It includes a tax cut for Americans making less than $400,000 a year, lowering the price of prescription drugs, and ensuring the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share of taxes.

See also FY2022 Budget Resolution Agreement Framework https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/MEMORANDUM%20for%20Democratic%20Senators%20-%20FY2022%20Budget%20Resolution.pdf

[marie999]

12. I never cared for saying something will cost so much over the next ten years

or will save so much money over the next ten years. We are lucky if the government hits the mark saying something will cost or save a certain amount over the next 2 years. I will settle on 3 years at a time.

[riversedge]

14. Manchin has always been committed to bills, but he has never given a dollar number. I do not

see one here either. It is a NO --for now--from Manchin as I read it.

[LonePirate]

16. I think he just killed both bills.

He says he's against the reconciliation bill and as long as he is opposed to that bill, the progressives will oppose the bipartisan bill. I say good for the progressives. Don't reward Manchin when he refuses to help America.

[Arazi]

17. He wants means testing which is fine. And less than "trillions" so $1.99T is ok?

Trying to spin this as positively as possible.

If $1.99T is his number then ok, that's at least (finally) a number.

And means testing is not a deal breaker

[Fiendish Thingy]

39. Means testing and shrinking the timeframe from 10 yrs down to 5-8yrs could meet that $1.9T target.

[CentralMass]

18. Joe "I'm fattening my bank account" Manchin.

[qazplm135]

19. I read that as him finally coming out and saying what's been clear

he doesn't want a reconciliation bill at all.

[bluewater]

22. Correct, Manchin wants NO reconciliation bill this year.

And what will the chances be of passing one next year in an election year? ZERO.

[MoonlitKnight]

20. It's not like this was just proposed yesterday

Joe Biden ran on this plan. Joe Manchin is just stalling and delaying in the hope everyone else will just cave and pass his plan and his plan only.

I was of the mindset “just take the win and move on” but Joe Biden stood at the podium with Manchin and his buddies when they made the deal and part of the deal was the two track passing of Manchin’s bill and reconciliation. I don’t take well to people who go back on their word. I therefore support a no vote if Manchin’s bill comes up for a vote in the House without reconciliation. That is still a huge concession as reconciliation still has to actually pass the Senate.

[bluewater]

21. You are reading it wrong.

His statements mean that there will be NO Reconciliation bill this year.

[Klaralven]

23. He may keep the Democratic Party from repeating 1994 and 2010

If the 3.5 T bill is delayed, Democrats can run on those programs again in 2022, and Republicans won't be able to run against those programs in 2022.

It possible that Democrats could increase majorities in both houses instead of losing control of Congress as happened in 1994 and 2010, the first congressional election during Clinton and Obama's first terms.

[qazplm135]

29. lol

no.

Running on...we want to pass this thing, is the same as running on...we passed this thing, if you think that thing is bad.

It's better to pass something and then ideally see some positive results from it, than to promise to pass something, which your side is skeptical you can deliver, and the other side can turn into whatever socialist bogeyman they want to.

[Klaralven]

36. Even if passed, the $3.5T bill would have little effect by October next year

Most of the programs would still be in the studying how to set up the bureaucracy phase.

[qazplm135]

40. not true

you'd start to see money going into pocketbooks a year out.

[questionseverything]

43. The child tax credits were to be made permanent in the reconciliation bill

They are already going out now

If democrats don’t deliver on making them permanent lotta people going to be 😡

[qazplm135]

27. I only see two possible reasons

for issuing such a definitive I ain't voting for this type statement:

1. To try to make reconciliation seem dead and thus give moderates republicans incentive to vote for it in large enough numbers that it passes over progressive opposition (and maybe make a few progressives feel defeated).

2. To basically signal enough is enough, you can stop trying to convince me because I can't be convinced.

I'm leaning towards 2, because as has been said by the CPC, a statement like this is not only going to harden opposition among progressives, it's probably going to piss off a few moderates who are for reconciliation too. He probably just increased the number of Dems who will vote no tomorrow.

[Fiendish Thingy]

38. Ignore what Manchin says, watch what he actually does (which, for now, is very little)

I don’t think there will be a vote tomorrow, the way things look at this point.

[FloridaBlues]

28. I take it as a no vote. What I don't like hearing from all tv pundits this will take down Biden

And his Presidency. So next 31/2 years mean nothing to pundits.
At some point these bills will pass but may not look like this current version esp reconciliation bill.

[qazplm135]

32. So here's my future prediction

we get swamped in 22. We lose the House and the Senate.

NOTHING gets done. We MIGHT get continuing resolutions, that's about it. No more judges, no replacements for any Supreme Court judges that die either. Nothing. It's a repeat times ten of 2010 to 2012.

Trump runs again in 2024. I STILL don't think enough people want to return to that and liberals seeing another shot at total control by republicans and Trump will, grudgingly, turn back out to vote in 2024.

We win the House back with narrow margins and maybe win the Senate or another 50/50 situation. We end right back up where we are now. We MAYBE pass one thing and then nothing.

We see the SAME cycle happen again that we saw in 2014 but this time it leads to the same result we saw in 2016, a republican takes the white house.

We are in this cycle in America because too many Americans are simply too afraid of any substantive changes.

[Klaralven]

45. If the Republicans take the House and Senate, you'll get a whole new set of high profile members

And Trump won't be the 2024 candidate.

[qazplm135]

46. he will

if he's alive and out of jail, he will.

[tishaLA]

30. Duplicity

Link to tweet

[Fiendish Thingy]

37. What say I? I say ignore what he says, watch what he does.

I hope the kayaker protestors surrounding his yacht today stick around, and I hope they brought bullhorns and air horns.