Excellent analysis of Sinema

[AZSkiffyGeek]

Moderate to liberal columnist from the Arizona Republic here. Explains a lot as to why she is so infuriating, but also that people shouldn't be surprised by her positions...
https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2021/09/30/what-democrats-misunderstand-about-sen-kyrsten-sinema/5936033001/

[jcgoldie]

1. Well...

Good luck winning the next democratic primary as a "party of 1."

[Whiskeytide]

2. I suppose she thinks that if she's ...

… conservative enough, AZ Republicans might vote for her. Two problems with that: (1) it will NEVER happen, and (2) she’ll never make it out of the primary.

I suspect she’s found legislating to be hard, and is just angling for a board membership somewhere after she loses. I can’t really understand it otherwise.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

4. Frankly, that's how she got elected in the first place

She appealed to Independents. Same thing with Kelly - although he hasn't made a scene about his independence since his election.

[Bettie]

5. I'm thinking she's hoping for a nice cushy

job with the Heritage Foundation where she gets paid a handsome sum to never show up.

[wryter2000]

8. Howard Dean said something like this

"Maybe she doesn't like being in the Senate." I respect Dr. Gov. Dean's opinions.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

15. That may be so

I don't think she likes being in the spotlight, but she put herself there. I think she's desperately trying to get out of it, which is creating a Streisand effect.

[tinrobot]

19. Her hair and clothing choices make me think she loves the spotlight.

[Irish_Dem]

20. Yes. Everything about her says she loves the spotlight.

She loves the attention.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

22. If she loved the attention she'd be giving interviews

Someone posted a pic of Manchin swarmed by the press giving a statement. Sinema is noticeably not talking to the press.

[Irish_Dem]

24. I thinks she loves the mystery, the secrecy, the speculation, the chaos. Classic narcissist.

It is all calculated.

[kairos12]

27. Absolutely right.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

3. If she can keep independents (which isn't looking 100% certain) they vote in the primary as well

AZ has more Independent voters than either party, I believe (certainly more than Dems), and they can choose which primary to vote in. Another Democrat isn't a guaranteed win in 2024. But neither is Sinema. It's an ugly situation all around.

[Celerity]

10. She isn't winning shite if her numbers stay like this with AZ Dems: Favourable 17%, Unfavourable 65%

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2021/9/27/2054753/-Sinema-s-unforced-errors-have-cost-her-big-time-with-Arizona-Democrats

[AZSkiffyGeek]

17. That's absolutely true - she tanked her standing with Dems this year

Although it isn't unsalvageable - and does that poll have her standing with Independents? They are critical in Arizona.

[Celerity]

25. the link for indies doesn't work

[AZSkiffyGeek]

26. I think she's dropped with them as well

Just not as bad…

[FrankBooth]

6. Arizona is going to be tight regardless

But this seems like a miscalculation on her part. From the article:

"50% of the state’s voters support her position on maintaining the filibuster in order to thwart Democrats’ policy priorities. That includes most Republicans and 51% of independents, people she will need to win a second term."

A lot of GOP-leaning voters in that polling batch, most of whom will never vote for a Democrat regardless how she helped the GOP in 2021. Most in that group voted GOP in '18 and will vote for whatever GOP candidate is running against her in 2024. Meanwhile she's totally alienated all the Dems that worked hard for her in '18, and will not forget this. The GOPers and GOP-leaning indies will totally forget this by 2024.

And while Arizona is pink/purple at best right now, the trend is blue, and it's been happening fast, and very likely to be even more blue by her re-election cycle. All things the author neglected or glossed over while re-affirming KS's 'maverick' profile in this so-called opinion piece (which reads to me like it was co-authored by one of Sinema's communications people.)

I don't buy the talk that Sinema is a complete idiot in over her head. I'm sure she understands all these dynamics, and will do something to mitigate the damage at some point, hopefully soon. Any 'maverick' cred she's gaining now is paper thin and not likely to carry over to 2024, and carries consequential downsides.

[qazplm135]

7. Here's my problem with this analysis

Independents aren't going to flee her if she agrees on a targeted say 2 trillion dollar reconciliation bill.

She can tout that she singlehandedly cut it down from 6 to 3.5 to 2.

Independents are not against slightly higher tax rates for the rich.

They aren't against modest iterations of at least some of the proposals in the reconciliation bill.

And they are in favor of the BIF.

So I am sorry but I don't understand not negotiating to a 2 trillion dollar bill that progressives would begrudgingly sign.
I doubt that independents would rush to the Republican.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

9. I think she is trying to negotiate towards a 1.5-2T bill

I think that became clear today with Manchin finally throwing his numbers out and Sinema more or less agreeing with him.
And I agree, that she won't necessarily lose independents - I've seen the nutcases that Republicans are trying to run here - and if Trump is at the top of the ticket?

Like the article says, 3 years is a lifetime. If she can get a smaller reconcilliation bill through, that should get the bipartisan bill through as well. And she can tout that infrastructure bill all over the place - it is HER bill. But she's also going to be haunted in the primaries by that curtsy (and for me the more offensive thing - missing the vote on the 1/6 commission).

I'm seeing a ton of "Thanks Senators Sinema and Kelly" ads all over the place here - there are people who like what she's doing. And they're spending money to get that message out there.

[qazplm135]

14. Yeah

Their called Republicans.

[budkin]

11. She literally has ZERO chance at surviving a primary at this point

ZERO

[AZSkiffyGeek]

12. Now isn't 2024 though

I'm not saying she will, I'm not saying she should. But don't base a vote in 3 years on what is happening now.

[StarfishSaver]

13. Key point: "Democrats, she isn't one of you"

Bingo.

I think the fact that she's so flaky makes Democrats believe she's one of us - we tend to embrace that kind of "marching to her own drummer" kind of thing But in her case, flaky doesn't mean forward-thinking or even interesting. She's just a nut.

[texasfiddler]

16. Senator Mark Kelly isn't acting like this

I believe he was elected by the same electorate. Therefore the hypothesis that she has to act like this because Arizona is not California “yet” doesn’t ring true to me. Primaries are a part of our political process and she may find out that doing this was not to her advantage.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

18. Mark Kelly didn't answer questions during the election

And has not voiced much since. I like him, but he isn't necessarily a liberal either. But then Gabby wasn't either. Kelly has the luxury of not having to voice his opinion, since Sinema and Manchin are sucking up the oxygen. I suspect he's in the mysterious 8 Senators who are against eliminating the filibuster, and who think the reconciliation bill is too large. But saying so would be political suicide.

[texasfiddler]

21. At this point I'll take someone who believes in science

and has some sense of decency. I would trade my current Senators for Sen. Kelly in a frickin heartbeat.

[Silent3]

23. What this analysis, and Sinema herself, are missing is it's all about whether we keep a democracy

And Manchin is missing this too. Or doesn't give a damn.

If Biden doesn't win, and win big, Democrats on the whole are in a losing position.

If Republicans get back in power they intend to completely abuse that power to keep power forever.

[Irish_Dem]

28. Narcissists care only about themselves. Their needs and wants are the only thing of import.

The lives and welfare of others, not on their radar screen.

[krawhitham]

29. If her only goal is to get re-elected she might what to look at her polling

Because what she is doing is not working with Arizona Dems