Okay, why is Florida diminishing as a possible state we can win?

[Stargleamer]

Nate Silver, Intrade, and other betting outfits put our chances there as slim (30 to 33%?), yet the polls don't seem too bad and it seems that a concerted effort to GOTV, especially among Latino voters who might not always get counted in polls if they do not respond to polls not in Spanish, can seemingly still pay off.

I think we still have a chance in Florida if we can GOTV there. Obama doesn't need to make campaign stops there if they judge Florida to be too unlikely to win, but his campaign could just put all their efforts into getting out the vote. In other words, concentrate on Ohio and Virginia if Florida is too remote a possibility, but still invest in the ground game there in case there is some reasonable chance we can still come through there.

[LisaL]

1. Obama is making campaign stops there.

[krawhitham]

2. Old white people?

[Honeycombe8]

28. And Cuban and Puerto Ricans, who are mostly conservative. And very rich Palm Beachers. nt

[HooptieWagon]

34. Inaccurate statement.

Puerto Ricans, like other hispanics, vote largely Democratic. Younger Cuban-Americans tend Democratic. Only older Cuban-Americans vote majorly republican. And wealthy Palm Beach residents are a minority in Palm Beach County, out-numbered by West Palm Beach. That area leans Democratic, like most of SE Florida. DWS and Alan Grayson both from the area.

[Honeycombe8]

35. Cubans are mostly Republican.

US citizens of Cuban descent tend to be significantly more politically conservative than other Hispanic groups in the United States and form a major voting block for the Republican Party (GOP) in the state of Florida. Many Cuban Americans fled the island to escape the political and economic repression that they experienced under the Fidel Castro's communist government. As such, they tend to identify with the tough anti-communist stance of the Republican Party (Wikepedia)

The political map of Florida is relatively simple: The panhandle in the north votes Republican by a wide margin, while the southern part of the state (with the exception of Miami's Cuban population) swings Democrat. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57510390/puerto-ricans-electoral-impact-grows-in-florida/

I stand corrected on Puerto Ricans. Although not clearly one or the other, "There are now almost as many Puerto Ricans in Florida as Cubans. And around Orlando there are far more. They trend Democratic." http://www.npr.org/2012/06/27/155855497/influx-of-puerto-ricans-changes-fla-s-voter-calculus

As for the wealthy Palm Beachers, I didn't say everyone in and around Palm Beach was wealthy and Republican. I said they contributed ot the Republican vote....that it's not just old white people.

So....Florida doesn't vote Republican because of JUST old white people.

[HooptieWagon]

36. Only older Cuban-Americans are solidly republican.

Each successive generation is more Democratic than the previous. Younger Cuban-Americans demographics are approaching that of Hispanics in general.

[Honeycombe8]

38. You forgot to post your cite to a link for authority. nt

[HooptieWagon]

40. I live in a neighborhood of Cuban Americans.

Have quite a few Cuban American and other Latino friends, not to mention travelled Central and South America, plus the Carribbean ( including Cuba) quite extensively. My gf is Colombian. For a gringo, I know hispanics quite well.

[HooptieWagon]

41. Try this:

http://www2.fiu.edu/~morenod/scholar/young.htm

[Jennicut]

3. Obama just has a better chance in some other states.

This is getting down to the wire and money might be moved around to states Obama has to win or where he might have a better chance. He has to win OH and WI with NV or IA. CO and NH are next in line. VA, NC, and FL are less important.

[OldDem2012]

4. Because the right-leaning pollsters and media want us to believe that? nt.

[Baitball Blogger]

8. +1

[Cha]

26. +2

[AndyTiedye]

5. Because it's Florida

…so a close race, or anything that isn't a Democratic landslide for that matter, gets stolen by the Repigs.
You know it, I know it, Nate Silver knows it, Gallup knows it, and the folks on Intrade know it.
Though Intrade still pretty strongly favors Obama to win the election somehow.

[movonne]

6. I think they are going to steal Ohio if we don't watch out...lot of

funny stuff going on...

[AndyTiedye]

7. 2004 All Over Again

Everything is in place for a repeat of 2004.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

15. Bob Dole knows it.

Flash from the past....

[Floyd_Gondolli]

9. Still very much in play

[Submariner]

10. Republicans suppressing vote and rigging e-voting machines

is how the RNC teabaggers claim a win.

[BiminiTwisted]

11. As an I4 corridor Floridian I can tell you with all honestly that Florida is a toss-up,

I'd the President concentrate on must win Ohio.

[HooptieWagon]

17. Very true. Florida is a tossup.

People shouldn't place too much cerdibility on polls that show more than a point or two separation.

[Egalitarian Thug]

12. Because it eclipses even Texas for the highest concentration of astonishingly ignorant people

in a high density population state.

[LisaL]

13. That couldn't possibly be true.

[Egalitarian Thug]

14. Texas has Austin...

I keep hearing that Austin is the exception. I've never seen any exception in FL.

Edited to add; for your reply

[HooptieWagon]

16. Tallahassee, Gainesville, Tampa, Orlando, and all of SE Florida are pretty solid blue.

Unlike Texas, Florida is solid purple.

[Egalitarian Thug]

23. Are you sure you want to go there? Remember that the internet makes pretending a lot more difficult.

I know that the republicans live on the fact that people are generally too lazy to bother fact finding on their own, but I am not a republican.

[HooptieWagon]

30. Try this:

Tampa - Democratic Mayor, all Democratic City Council, open lesbian Chief of Police, open lesbian US Congressperson.
Orlando - Democratic Mayor, several LBGT holding public offices.
Tallahassee - always votes Democratic, its a college town.
Gainesville - same as Tallahasse.

As in most purple states, the urban areas generally are blue, suburban and rural areas red.
Many people work hard to improve the situation, having to battle not only the repukes but also the self-serving Democratic Party of Florida. Insulting them is counter-productive to making Florida bluer. Your comments sound like you want us all to give up and let the state go red.

[Egalitarian Thug]

44. OK, now try this;

Of the 9 candidates for Senator in 2010, 8 ranged from right wing to completely fucking crazy right wing and the second place winner was Charlie Crist. Between he and Rubio they collected 78.6% of the vote. Even Crist's 29.7% was enough to beat the Democratic candidate's 20.2%.

Of the 25 seats for Representative, you elected 19 republicans and 6 Democrats. 4 seats were unopposed. The Gubernatorial race was he closest of them all, Scott 48.7% to Sink 47.7%. Of course if the other 5 bat-shit candidates votes were added to Scott's, it would bring his total up to 52.3%.

You eliminated public financing of elections, stripped local government's power to plan for land use, approved virtually unlimited power to redistrict both federal and local districts (by over 2/3), eliminated restrictions on class size for your children in what was already one of the nation's worst states for education, and the retention rate of incumbent republican state officials was 100%.

Here's an image of Floriduh's "generally blue" urban distribution;



Do you want some more? The supply is virtually unlimited.

[HooptieWagon]

46. Like a US map, there are fly-over red districts where few people live.

It's one vote per person, not one vote per acre.
District elections are a problem because the districts are gerry-mandered to protect incumbants. Incumbent democrats were complicit in this, so the Dem Party of Florida shares the blame. Citizen's groups worked hard to minimize the damage, even managing to get two constitutional amendments passed.
As far as State-wide elections, Florida is purple. Alex Sink would have made a fine Governor, but she ran a lackluster campaign, and still only lost by a point or two. Dem turnout was down, as it was across the country leading to the republican take-over of Congress. She may run again, and has an excellent chance.
The Dem US Senate Candidate was horrible. He had several major ethics issues, and did little campaigning or advertising. Recognizing this, many Dems voted for Crist, since A) he wasn't a horrible Governor, and B) he was a hell of a lot better than Marco Rubio. The republican sweep of '10 occurred all over, not just in Florida. Hell, Mass elected a teabagger to Kennedy's seat. I guess you're gonna blame that on Florida too?

[HooptieWagon]

18. Yet voted for Obama in 08. Stop bashing Florida.

[Egalitarian Thug]

22. Stop giving me so many reasons to bash it and I will gladly comply. You write that reply as if

voting for the President is some kind of pseudo-Christian get out of jail free card. It's not.

Your state demonstrates monumental ignorance, not to mention what is deemed criminality in the civilized world, with the regularity of a pulsar. Your time would be better spent trying to change that instead of whining about what somebody accurately wrote on a message board.

[budkin]

19. The 47 percent was really taking effect there until the 1st debate

Obama was consistently up by 4-5. Guess once Mitt told them he would not take away their medicare they were all cool with it.

[OhZone]

20. I just saw a poll with Obama ahead there, didn't I? nt

[reformist2]

21. Because Romney's Mediscare tactics are working!

[upi402]

24. I used to warn about spineless Dems doing nothin about clean voting

and got flamed here on DU for it.

effemall

[AzDar]

25. Apparently, the Obama Team is FAILING to get out the message that R/R wants to *decimate* Medicare/

Social Security. Frankly, all this shit is beginning to baffle me...


Mitt Romney is a fucking joke. How in the world can shit be so close??

[clyrc]

27. I was at a county Democratic headquarters yesterday, in Florida.

There were three people doing calling people, and I know that in the little town closest to me they were also meeting every week to call and canvas. It seems to me that there is more effort now to gotv than I've ever seen.

[LisaL]

31. Because we can win it if we GOTV.

Obama is ahead with RV. That means if we GOTV and unlikely voters vote, we can win FL.

[WinkyDink]

29. Because Jeb's Boys know how to steal Florida?

[Mutiny In Heaven]

32. I'm not convinced Jeb would care for that

if Romney loses, the next GOP candidate gets to 'reform' the party and become a political icon. Certain figures have put out feelers regarding its divisiveness, and I don't think that's accidental.

[LisaL]

33. Yea. If Jeb wanted to run, why would he want Romney to win?

That means he couldn't run for 8 years.
Whereas if Obama wins, Jeb can run in 4 years.

[HooptieWagon]

37. Exactly!

That's why he's kept a fairly low profile this time around. He wants to be able to run in '16, and he wants to keep his distance from a failed romney campaign.

[taught_me_patience]

39. Old people overwhelmingly vote Romney

They got their medicare, so fuck everybody else.

[2Design]

42. I will be voting all democrats

[B Calm]

43. Polls don't change this much overnight.

I do know they sent that propaganda DVD to voters in Florida, maybe that has something to do with it??

I think this election may have already been stolen and they are trying to make it look closer than what it is.

[LisaL]

45. There have been polls all over the place.