NJ-GOV: New Jersey Governor's Race Is Getting Interesting and Maybe Even Competitive

[RandySF]

Throughout this calendar year, there has been intensive national interest in two gubernatorial contests: the California recall election, which Democrat Gavin Newsom handily won; and Virginia’s regular gubernatorial election, which is coming down to a very close finish between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin on November 2.

But there is another gubernatorial election on November 2 that may be becoming sneakily competitive: in New Jersey, where Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is running for a second term against former Republican state legislator Jack Ciattarelli. The race drew little attention initially because of Murphy’s big lead in early polls and the state’s increasingly Democratic advantage (Joe Biden won there by nearly 16 points in 2020, the fourth straight double-digit Democratic win in what was once a battleground state).

But Murphy’s lead has been steadily shrinking in fairly sparse public polling: down to nine points (50-41) among likely voters in a late September survey from Stockton University, and then further down to six points (50-44) among likely voters in an Emerson poll. This last survey showed undecided voters also leaning towards Ciattarelli. It’s prudent to say that while Murphy remains the favorite, an upset isn’t completely out of the question.

Aside from the partisan lean of the state, Murphy’s big advantage is a modestly positive job approval rating based in no small part on his management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ciattarelli is campaigning principally on the perennial Republican issue of New Jersey’s high property taxes, and on the alleged effect of high state and local taxes generally on business development.



https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/new-jersey-governors-race-is-getting-interesting.html

[no_hypocrisy]

1. As a democratic NJ voter, I don't get it

First, Murphy's done a better-than-credible job as Governor. He's been responsive to the challenges of state, regional, and local government.

Next, even if Ciattarelli is elected, he's like Chris Christie, a republican executive with both houses of the state legislature being democratic. This means gridlock for legislation with anticipated vetoes and a question of enough democratic votes to override.

Next, Ciattarelli doesn't have the ability to lower property taxes as governor. Each year, the voters of each town or school district are given an election to vote for or against a school budget, which makes up most of the property taxes collected. As a poll worker, I can assure you that the smallest segment of voters show up for this election and the property taxes are determined by sometimes as little as 40+ voters.

Finally, this is an off-year election with no "headliner" like a president on the ballot. We're going to get minimum turn-out again. The next governor will be elected by 51% of one-quarter of registered voters. Pitiful.

I'm guessing if Murphy loses, it's because of fickle independents who want someone new, not because they support the positions of Ciattarelli and/or the republican party and/or Donald Trump.

[Klaralven]

2. I do see Jack signs around, but no Phil signs

But I expect Phil to win.

[Beetwasher.]

4. I See Murphy Signs All Over

Wrapped around every lamp post in Newark "Stop Team Trump, Vote Murphy".

Murphy's got this, polls always tighten in the last week. A 6 point lead is significant a week out, this article is misleading. It's tightening a bit, but Murphy is significantly ahead.

[Greybnk48]

3. Because polls have been so accurate the past few years?

I don't trust any of it. I think both Dems will win easily.

[Beetwasher.]

5. No, It's Not, Even the Article Has a 6 Point Lead for Murphy

It's tightened a bit a week out. Whoop dee doo. Seriously, that's expected.

[lagomorph777]

6. "Interesting" is not the word I use. More like "terrifying".

Can't voters in VA and NJ see that Reptilian governors across the country are slaughtering their own citizens with COVID as a bioweapon?