A Reckoning Is Coming

[berni_mccoy]

Did you know that about 1/3 of the US Dollars in Circulation were printed within the last year?


Market Cap to GDP ratio is at an all time high, implying that the market is over inflated and companies are way over valued.


Overvaluation is confirmed by an exceedingly high CAPE ratio for the S&P 500.

Market returns are BELOW ZERO, meaning people aren't getting what they want out of the market going toward investor sentiment


The levels of both Coporate Debt and Household Debt are at all time highs and corporate debt currently exceeds the GDP.

And Interest rates are still at all time record lows.


This means the Fed has absolutely ZERO leverage to continue printing money without devaluing the dollar. And guess what? He can't because we are in a period of hyperinflation. Continuing to print money will accelerate inflation further, causing a major devaluation of the USD and making necessary goods unaffordable to most Americans. This means the Fed MUST begin raising interest rates. That should have happened already because once it starts, the factors in the market above w.r.t. overinflation will cause a market crash. All that DEBT will start incurring interest and corporations and investors will need cash to pay it off.

Combine that with the supply chain issues, a shortage of jobs with livable wages, a never-ending pandemic and millions of investment accounts of people who've died from COVID being liquidated by their benefectors will drain the market of liquidity.

In other words, the US economy is a pile of seasoned wood with gasoline poured all over it. A simple spark will cause a chain reaction that could burn it to the ground.

What could that spark be? Black Friday. Did you know there is a movement happening by BLM and is being joined with the anti-work movement called Blackout Black Friday? https://blackoutfriday.org And did you know there are about a million redditors joining that movement? https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/

There is going to be a massive boycott this year of Black Friday to send a message. This is going to ignite a massive bonfire on the economy and could likely trigger something that's never been seen before.

I think everyone knows what will happen politically if we have a massive market crash that triggers a recession. I know that Biden has been doing a lot to stem the supply chain issues. That said, every time I've seen Yellen speak about the state of the economy, I only hear a dismissal that things are not as bad as the seem. I beg to disagree. Things are very bad and we are at a precipice. I sincerely hope the Biden Administration sees this coming. Because if they don't, all hell is going to break loose.

[BlueTsunami2018]

1. How does one make money from a crash?

How do you bet the other way on the stock market? I have no idea about much of this stuff but I know you can make money from it somehow.

[berni_mccoy]

2. In order to make money prior to and during a crash, the best bet is to make plays on volatility

This can be done a number of ways, but there are several ETFs that use the VIX.

Alternatively, move investments to cash and buy tangibles (i.e. gold has been the goto in the past).

However, timing is critical, move too soon and you can easily lose money. Also, the system tends to fight back. To see how that happens, I recommend watching the movie, The Big Short.

[A HERETIC I AM]

16. Taking specific investment advice from anonymous people on a message board....

Is A horrible idea.

So is soliciting that advice.

[BlueTsunami2018]

17. It was just a question.

It’s not like I actually have money to do anything.

[roamer65]

3. On inflation, it mostly boils down to the velocity of money.

You can create trillions and trillions of dollars, but if very few people use them inflation remains low.

Watch the velocity of money figures as well.



https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

[doc03]

4. Except for a short blip in the market last year this

has been the longest bull market in history.

[berni_mccoy]

6. Cash has been easy to get and margins at all time lows

The wealthy have used this bear market to increase their wealth and use leverage that average retail investors can’t use.

[PortTack]

5. BNSF has a record number of trains running right now. This doesn't speak to a poor economy

If anything the opposite

[berni_mccoy]

7. That's anecdotal at best and not an indicator of the economy

One busy rail company could be busier for a number of reasons, none of which have anything to do with the economics of the country.

[PortTack]

14. It is the largest carrier of freight in the US. It is more than anecdotal!

In the down ‘08 train traffic fell dramatically along with the economy!

[brooklynite]

8. "There is going to be a massive boycott this year of Black Friday to send a message."

Ridiculous. The US doesn't do mega-boycotts any more than they do general strikes. People will buy less if they don't have the money, but I'm not seeing any sign of that.

[berni_mccoy]

9. You do realize it's being organized by BLM?

And is a rapidly growing movement coordinated with the antiwork movement. If you aren’t aware of these then you really aren’t paying attention.

[brooklynite]

10. I'll wait to be impressed.

'Boycott for Black Lives': People plan to stop spending in companies that don't support BLM

On June 19, advocates of Black Lives Matter plan to support the namesake civil rights movement by not spending money with companies that aren't aligned with the movement or have remained silent. Some efforts include boycotting celebrities and politicians who've been vocal in opposition to the movement.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/18/boycotts-people-plan-stop-spending-stores-dont-support-blm/3208170001/

Point me to an article that their last effort had any impact.

[berni_mccoy]

12. Time will tell.

[uponit7771]

18. +1

[BradAllison]

11. It'll all be blamed on Joe Biden

Like everything else now. Gas prices. The shipping problems. lack of workers. Joe Manchin hating his constituents. Kristen Cinnebon's stupidity. Rand Pauls's hemorrhoids.

[berni_mccoy]

13. Yes. And the media will make sure of it. Hence

I sincerely hope the admin is paying attention

[doc03]

19. Just what would they accomplish if the economy

would crash? What the hell is the anti-work movement. Sounds like a real stupid idea.

[berni_mccoy]

20. They feel like they are sending a message

However, I think everyone here realizes it would be politically bad news for Democrats, which makes the movement self defeating.

[doc03]

22. What would be the message "I will show you I will shoot

myself in the foot and crash the economy"? It would also insure Republicans will win in 2022? Anti-work movement
who would support something like that?

[berni_mccoy]

24. Same message as many have presented here at DU

About the injustice of Big Box stores and Massive corporations with more wealth than they can spend without paying any taxes.

Note that the movement is about buying local and buying necessities and saying no to items that would further increase the hoard of wealth held by the FAANG companies that push their agenda on Americans through unbounded lobbying while committing labor and even human rights violations to make their businesses run.

People are tired of being slaves saddled with a lifetime of debt just from being educated while not being able to work and afford the basic necessities.

[doc03]

26. You actually think if they crashed the economy it would help anyone? Even when Wall Street crashes

it is the "little people" that get hurt. The rich make money on short selling and hedge funds. Look at 2008 us taxpayers had to
bail out banks that were too big to fail. We are still paying, credit card interest is still 18+% and banks pay zero interest on your savings.

[berni_mccoy]

27. Of course not. I said exactly the opposite

[Withywindle]

15. I've boycotted Black Friday for years

Ridiculous consumerist hype-o-thon, full of desperate idiots and retail workers brutally overworked and abused. Add in a pandemic and a labor shortage? No thanks. I'll shop for my gifts in a leisurely manner, and I'll prioritize small independent businesses over big-box chain stores. Like I always do.

[Ron Green]

21. Reverse Economic Growth.

De-growth is the absolutely necessary first step in saving human life on earth.

[Justice matters.]

23. There's a lot of 'electronic' money too.

Credit cards transactions don't involve any paper money, only debit accounts to credit accounts or credit accounts to debit accounts. Direct payments from bank accounts to credit-cards companies to pay back monthly payments. No paper money involved.

[RussBLib]

25. we are not experiencing hyperinflation

By the standard definition, hyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50%. We don't have half of that. Not even a quarter.

I'm certainly not saying everything is great. But the times do not merit the constant barrage of doom and gloom.