Registered voters vs likely voters

[ProSense]

Registered voters vs likely voters

By Steve Benen

Late last week, a CNN poll of Florida voters found something interesting. Among likely voters, Mitt Romney enjoys a slight edge over President Obama, 49% to 48%, but among registered voters, the president has a large advantage, 50% to 43%.

In other words, Florida voters overall clearly prefer Obama, but a whole lot of Obama supporters in Florida just don't intend to show up. Though the results weren't quite this dramatic in the new NBC/WSJ poll, the national trend is pointing in a similar direction.



I put together this chart to help illustrate the gap -- among registered voters, the two candidates are tied at 47% each, while among registered voters, the president leads by five. Other recent national polls also point to the same phenomenon, with Obama faring much better with the adult population overall, and worse with those most likely to actually vote.

At a distance, this is a mixed bag for both sides. The good news for Obama is that he has room to grow -- there are voters out there who want him to win, but are inclined to stay on the sidelines. If they can be motivated to cast a ballot, the president's odds improve considerably.

- more -

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/10/22/14614961-registered-voters-vs-likely-voters

Why on earth would anyone who gives a shit decide to stay on the sidelines?

Here's a tweet sent after the NBC numbers:

4h NBC News ‏@NBCNews
RT @chucktodd In this same poll at this same point in time in 2004, we had Bush-Kerry tied at 48%. #NBCPolitics

https://twitter.com/NBCNews

Now here are the details:

Bush/Kerry 2004 & Obama/Romney 2012

by rennert

NBC/WSJ today has a poll out that shows President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47% among likely voters. Among the larger universe of registered voters, Obama leads by 5, 49% to 44%.

How does this compare to the last incumbent's reelection campaign in 2004?

Well, luckily we can do an apples to apples comparison because there was an NBC/WSJ poll released on Oct. 20, 2004.

That poll showed President Bush and John Kerry tied at 48% (almost exactly mirroring today's poll).

In that poll, just as in today's, the incumbent led among registered voters.

But there are differences:

In the 2004 poll, Bush led among registered voters by 2 pts, 48% to Kerry's 46%.

In today's poll, Obama leads among registered voters by 5 pts, 49% to Romney's 44%.

Bush ended up winning reelection by 1.5%, slightly less than his registered voter lead of 2%.

(This also proves that the race does not necessarily break to the challenger).

If (and it's a big "if&quot this election follows that template, Obama would win reelection by about 3-4%. But I won't even be that optimistic. Let's assume there's a 2 point tilt towards Republicans because of "enthusiasm". Obama would still win by 1-2%, matching Nate Silver's prediction all along that this race would settle down to Obama +2%.

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/21/1147869/-Bush-Kerry-2004-Obama-Romney-2012

A 5-point advantage among registered voters is significant compared to 2 points, which is why some are questioning the gaps: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021592410

[ProSense]

1. Kick for

not panicking. GOTV.

[bluestate10]

2. In an election like this, there is no difference between the two.

Registered voters are voters that tend to vote in national elections, but sit out state and local elections. I would be considered a registered voter because I often sit out my local (not any more) elections. But, I have voted in every Presidential election since I turned 18. Likely voters are people that vote in every election, including local ones, that group has a heavy right-wing composition to it.

[LisaL]

3. Yes, it does show that if these registered voters get out there and vote,

we can win FL.
GOTV!

[liberal N proud]

4. Underlines why GOTV it most critical to winning this election.

He who gets the voters out there will win.

[tblue]

5. There is usually that gap, with GOP leading Likelys

It's all about getting those deemed 'unlikely' being motivated enough to show up. Usually 'unlikely'= the young and people of color and single women, I think. And those are Obama's base who showed up for him last time. Just gotta get them out there again.

[pointsoflight]

6. In recent elections, RV numbers have been closer than LV numbers

We should be pushing back against the media and republicans who focus on just the LV numbers. The fact of the matter is that those LV numbers are less accurate and are biased toward republicans.