There is a Fox News poll going around showing a significant lead for Youngkin among likely voters

[JohnSJ]

The problem is their definition of likely voters is the following:

Likely voters are a subgroup of registered voters, identified mainly based on self-reported vote intention and interest in the election.

However, among just registered voters it is a dead heat

Among the larger pool of registered voters, it’s a one-point race: McAuliffe 47 percent vs. Youngkin 48 percent.

The early voting has a substantial vote favoring Democrats, and I would not hold much in their “likely voter” assessment, and focus in just getting the vote out.

[helpisontheway]

1. Thank you for this explanation. I posted about this poll

and it was deleted. I hope all of the early vote that Democrats banked helps McAuliffe.

[JohnSJ]

5. I saw your OP, and was responding to it when you self-deleted. While Fox News polls are

usually pretty accurate, an 11 point turn-around without any significant news is strange

We pollsters to determine if it is an outlier, but I sure don’t buy their likely voter criteria, and as I said the early voting so far significantly is favoring the Democrats

[helpisontheway]

6. I did not self delete. It was deleted because they said I was peddling right wing info.nt

[Scrivener7]

2. This way they can cry foul when McAuliffe wins.

[Midnight Writer]

17. Exactly. They are setting the table.

[RussBLib]

3. so when McAuliffe wins...

.... they can scream it was stolen.

[womanofthehills]

10. Monmouth poll even - both with 46%

And I read 538 had McAulifee down one percent. Not good.

[Kid Berwyn]

4. Seeding Woe

Thank you, Rupert.

[Lovie777]

8. I would not but it passed them .....

When TM wins RWers will be screaming it was stolen. republicans are laying the ground work for future elections, which I believe will backfire on them.

[womanofthehills]

13. Statement made by TM in debate being used in opponents adds

Mr. McAuliffe : “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”

So his opponent is running with this statement in his adds & McAuliffe is on the defensive with his latest add - saying “I have been taken out of context”

Some have attributed this to the rise in his opponent’s numbers. Worrisome!!

[Lovie777]

15. Democratic strongholds in early voting and mail in has TM up significantly . . .

It may reach 1 million for mail in plus early voting. There are a little over 5 million registered voters in VA. The early voting and mail in helped Gov. Newsom in rebuffing the "recall". My cousin in VA feels confident that TM will win, and claimed Democrats will vote on Tuesday as well. Also said that the VA Democrats have boots on the ground as well as communications and ads on going.

As to polls, I truly don't trust them.

[Kid Berwyn]

16. Wish the DEM messaging would identify who supports public education.

And which party wants to abolish the Department of Education.

[LakeArenal]

7. "Significant leads" can lead to as many Reps not voting as they hope Dems will not vote.

[Dawson Leery]

9. Aryan Nations Jihad TV has the electorate at Trump +1.

Really? That would require a massive dropoff on the D side.

With that said, if Youngkin does take it, he will hand the state's electoral votes to Trump.

[underpants]

11. 4.5% MOE. Clearly exaggerated from other polls.

They also had a graphic that said 1% of Youngkin supporters aren’t interested in the race. Huh?

[FBaggins]

12. That's a fairly standard screen for "likely" voters

The only additional datapoint that has much influence is pst history of voting (but that too is self identified).

The poll is pretty clearly an outlier… but the VA race does appear to be trending against us.

[spanone]

14. I don't believe anything that comes from faux