Roanoke College Poll: McAuliffe 47% Youngkin 46%

[honest.abe]

Just a few days before Election Day, the race for Virginia governor is a statistical tie. Former Democrat Gov. Terry McAuliffe holds a 1-percentage point lead over Republican Glenn Youngkin (47%-46%) with 6% undecided, according to The Roanoke College Poll.[1] The downticket races are also within the margin of error, with Del. Hala Ayala (D) ahead of former Del. Winsome Sears (R) 46%-44% for lieutenant governor and Attorney General Mark Herring (D) leading Del. Jason Miyares (R) 46%-45% in the race for attorney general. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 571 likely Virginia voters between October 14 and October 28 and has a margin of error of +4.1%.

https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_oct_2021

This election will be decided by turnout on Tuesday.

[JohnSJ]

1. F**k Fox News for pushing their bullshit "likely voter" poll

[honest.abe]

2. Indeed. I think that poll was garbage.

I trust nothing associated with Fox News.

[JohnSJ]

4. Their polling is usually pretty accurate, but this time they did two polls. One which was in line

with other polls, dead heat, and another one which they viewed as likely voters from the same subset, based on ambiguous assumptions.

Of course the poll they pushed was what they viewed as “likely voters”

[jimfields33]

6. Is registered voter sample better?

[JohnSJ]

16. Their poll for likely voters makes assumptions which are not necessarily correct. In this case I

question the criteria they used to assume someone was likely to vote verses someone not likely to vote

In this case they are assuming Democrats are not as enthusiastic to vote as republicans, and I don’t but that

[Polybius]

7. Unless it's not bullshit

We'll know Tuesday night.

[JohnSJ]

17. I am referring to their criteria for "likely to vote", where they believe Democrats are not as

motivated to vote as republicans, and I don’t buy it

[Polybius]

24. I bought it

The writing was on the wall, sad to say.

[JohnSJ]

25. The likely voter fox poll was wrong, it was no 7 point spread. It was the 1 - 2 point

spreads that the other pollsters said.

Also the polls were wrong about New Jersey. They indicated a much bigger win for Murphey, and it was far closer than that

[Brainfodder]

3. Reminder to Republicans not to vote again until at least 2025!

[Dawson Leery]

5. GOTV will decide this.

Heavy EV the past week. Democrats are waking up. We need more of them on Monday and Tuesday.

[gldstwmn]

9. Well there is that threat of an ISIS attack at the malls in

Northern Virginia.

[spooky3]

8. Nearly a million Virginians have already voted. Nt

[triron]

12. Nearly 1.1 million or almost 20% of registered voters.

[spooky3]

13. Excellent! Nt

[budkin]

10. Terry will pull it out

These polls are total bullshit.

[PortTack]

11. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[SKKY]

14. This crap is making me just a bit nervous...

...not for Virginia but what it could mean nationally. We need a win here.

[JohnSJ]

19. The polls show it is a dead heat. Early voting and vote by mail will be everything

[BlueStater]

15. Are there other polls with Youngkin leading?

I think every poll I’ve seen other than the Fox one has McAuliffe with a small lead.

Either way, it’s going to be a nail biter, unfortunately.

[JohnSJ]

18. All the recent polls have the race as a dead heat, even the fox poll. It was the fox likely voters

where the difference was, and that was based on their assumption that republicans are more motivated to vote than Democrats

I think that is a wrong assessment since what happened in 2016. Things have changed since then

[JustAnotherGen]

20. You hit on a very important point

2016 vs 2021. The country has changed dramatically since then.

[Deminpenn]

21. AFAIK, all VA polls now are of likely voters

The turnout models, i.e., likely voters, have had issues the last few cycles. There are various criteria used like "enthusiasm" or how often a respondent votes. If you vote in every election, primary and general, you are a "iikely voter", if not you could be screened out.

If I were a pollster, would lean toward results of registered voters with all the marginal frequency data included.

[Qutzupalotl]

22. Rain is forecast for Northern Va on Tuesday.

One expects that to diminish turnout somewhat, at least in areas with long lines outdoors.

My hope is that enough of us have voted early that it won’t make much difference. (Republicans tend to vote more on election day than Democrats, who do most of their voting early.)

It’s going to be close. Give rides to voters if you’re able to.