VA-GOV: Those who've had at least one dose of a covid vaccine support Terry McAuliffe by 14%

[RandySF]

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James Hohmann
@jameshohmann
Those who’ve had at least one dose of a covid vaccine support Terry McAuliffe by 14 points in the Washington Post poll. Those who have refused to get vaccinated favor Glenn Youngkin by 77 points. Big correlation here with education level. The uneducated are also the unvaccinated.

[spooky3]

1. Wow, that is a very interesting stat. Everyone knows there would be some

Correlation, but the magnitude of it is huge!

Something like 70% of VA adults have received at least one dose. So this bodes well for Terry, if everyone gets out to vote (who hasn’t already done so).

[dsc]

3. Assuming a 70/30 split

Terry would be up by .7(14) or 9.8% while he would be down by .3(70) or 21% in short that isn't good at all. If it is an 80/20 split it would be .8(14) or 11.2 vs .2(70) or 14

[spooky3]

4. Depends on how they define "refused." Several news reports

Have said many (most?) who haven’t been vaccinated do NOT say they refused, but give other reasons such as they just haven’t yet been able to get to the clinic.

It may also be that a higher % of the refusers or “haven’t gotten around to it” may not vote.

[spooky3]

5. Sorry--that 70% I reported was too low--it's for the whole population. 83%

Of people over age 18 have gotten at least one shot.

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/

[triron]

6. So only 17% of over 18 are unvaccinated.

[spooky3]

7. Correct. Nt

[PortTack]

2. This is a much better indicator than polls at this point

With high voter turn out McAuliffe is going to do just fine