Just read that 20% of registered voters voted early in VA...

[helpisontheway]

I hope the Trump voters are not motivated to vote for Youngkin.

[lagomorph777]

1. Trumpies tend to vote in person because they believe mail-in ballots are the Devil's work.

Trump told them that.

So, high early turnout is a good thing.

[Nokillmessanger]

2. 25% advantage Dems

I cannot remember where I saw it, MC has a 25% Dem advantage in early voting (55%D-30% R-15% Indy). Biden only had a 12% advantage. Not in the bag, but a good sign.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. If only 20% are early voters, we're in serious trouble. It was 61% a year ago.

Better hope for a huge same day turnout.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Well 61% of those who voted.

Turnout in Virginia was 75%, so 61% of that. Still, much higher than the 20% currently.

[Nokillmessanger]

5. But

Dems have double the advantage in early votes 25% vs 12% in 2020. This works out to about a 350k advantage coming in to today, assuming they mostly vote the party line.

[a kennedy]

15. Just curious......hello, and how'd ya find DU??

[Nokillmessanger]

17. Longtime Reader

I just never signed up. I think I found you in 2015 or 16.

[a kennedy]

18. Welcome and glad to have ya.

[Nokillmessanger]

22. Thank You !

Glad to be here.

[FSogol]

6. Presidential elections always have bigger turnouts. The last Gubernatorial election

had a 49% turnout (of registered voters)

We'll beat that today.

[uponit7771]

9. NICE !!! crossing fingers

[FSogol]

10. Same here. Cautiously optimistic. If you know someone in VA, call them, get them to the polls.

If you are in line by 7, you get to vote.

[onenote]

7. Since there is no party registration in VA

How do they know how many voters are “independents”?

[FSogol]

11. They have separate Democratic and Repug primaries. Since I always vote in the D primary, they assume

I'm a Democrat. The early voting greatly favored McAuliife, but of course, they don't know until the votes are counted.

[onenote]

14. So do they assume everyone who doesn't vote in a primary is an independent?

That would be a lot of Independents.

[FSogol]

16. Sorry, no idea where that comes from. Must be exit polling. n/t

[LiberalFighter]

13. Political parties do polling and include data in their databases.

They know who are or are not likely voters. They know who are strong D or R. etc.

[Best_man23]

8. Not sure if there is any site breaking down the amount/percentage by county

In Virginia, one has to consider location. There is Northern Virginia (NOVA), and the Rest of Virginia (ROVA).

In the ROVA, specifically the counties south of Route 17 and West of US-29, the voters are overwhelmingly Trumpkin supporters. There are some blue enclaves around Richmond, Roanoke, and Norfolk/Virginia Beach, but for the most part the rural counties are red to deep red.

NOVA is where the early vote and the vote today (along with the downstate blue enclaves) has to turn out. Saw on other threads here of good turnout today in Charlottesville and Fairfax county.

[FSogol]

12. As of noon, Buchanan County (reddest spot in the State) had a 21.85% turnout.

In 2017, they had 69.75%.

[onenote]

19. I believe you're mistaken about Buchanan's 2017 turnout

According to the Virginia elections website, in 2017, there were 14,390 registered voters in Buchanan County. And only 4542 votes were cast -- a turnout rate of around 31 percent, not 69 percent.

[FSogol]

20. Possible, I pulled the info from Blue Virginia. n/t

[onenote]

21. Link to official statistics

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Statistics/Index.html

I just checked. I think Buchanan had 69 percent turnout in 2020, not 2017.