Early Exit polls in Virginia 53% women, 73% white was 67% white in the 2020 race. Older voters

[applegrove]

Last edited Tue Nov 2, 2021, 06:05 PM - Edit history (1)

too. More educated electorate than in 2020. Early days. CNN

"SNIP.....

About Those Exit Polls

November 2, 2021 at 5:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 59 Comments

Preliminary exit polls are floating around but everyone should beware of drawing conclusions from exit polling released while people are still voting.

In other words, they’re not worth much at this point.

After the election, they’ll be weighted to the final result and could tell us something interesting about the electorate

.....SNIP"


https://politicalwire.com/2021/11/02/about-those-exit-polls/

That being said long lines in Democratic Fairfax.

[qazplm135]

1. not an ideal

electorate for sure.

[Mary in S. Carolina]

2. Isn't the increase in white vote vs black vote

a bad thing for Democrats?

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Yes. Very bad.

The increase in white vote is staggering considering it was 67% in 2017.

I'm not sure how McAuliffe wins with these demographics.

[Marius25]

22. Lot of educated white people moved into NoVa over the last 4 years.

[applegrove]

6. I would think so but an increase in educated voting is good news.

[FBaggins]

23. Yes... but this is in comparison to 2020 when we won by 10%

So the key questions haven't changed since yesterday. We knew things would be worse than last November... but we don't know whether it's enough "worse" to lose...

... and preliminary exit polls often change substantially.

We'll start to get real numbers soon enough.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Better to compare it to 2017.

Some good news:

Women actually were only 49% in 2017 and Northam won them 61-48.

And the really bad news: whites were 67% in 2017.

If these exits are true, Youngkin is going to win.

[JohnSJ]

7. Doesn't it depend which districts?

[Drunken Irishman]

10. These are statewide.

[JohnSJ]

11. Are early voters or vote by mail included?

[onenote]

16. Yes.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216008279

[underpants]

18. 2013.

McAuliffe only won by 56,000 votes in 2013. 2.6%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Virginia_gubernatorial_election

The third party Libertarian got 6.5%.

[JohnSJ]

8. Aren't exit polls only for those voting in person?

[onenote]

17. No.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216008279

[greenjar_01]

9. Youngkin by 5%

[Lawrence454]

12. These only people who voted on E day

Doesn’t count early and mail in voters so don’t read much into them

[onenote]

15. No its not. Exit polls include early voters contacted by phone.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216008279

[CentralMass]

13. Rhuh rho

[AJT]

14. The minority and youth vote didn't turn out as the dems had hoped they would

[OrlandoDem2]

19. I am so tired of depending on the youth vote.

[honest.abe]

20. One thing to keep in mind these polls have to be from earlier today.

Perhaps they stopped polling around 3pm pm to get the numbers processed and reported to the media. So no later voters are included in these numbers. And I suspect older white Republican types mostly vote early. Hard working black folks probably vote after work.

Bottom line.. these numbers dont mean too much.

[applegrove]

21. True this.

[onenote]

25. Unfortunately, all of the reports I've seen indicate very low afternoon turnout.

This isn't an election where folks are in line when the polls close. My afternoon-voting neighbors are reporting no lines at all

[book_worm]

24. We will see in a few hours won't we.