It's a Jedi mind trick to convince us McAuliffe's loss means more than Murphy's win

[bigtree]

...in conservative Chris Christie's former political stomping grounds.

Murphy became the first Democrat to win reelection as NJ gov in 44 yrs. An unabashed progressive , the two-term NJ governor already pushed through a $15 minimum wage, legal pot, free community college, voting rights for parolees and probation, and drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants.

WVa....

Which state's results best represents Democratic prospects in the future?

[mcar]

1. Just made a similar OP

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216016256

GMTA!

[spanone]

2. K&R

[malaise]

3. Indeed

I've turned tham all off

[Drunken Irishman]

4. This 44 years stat is just awful and so disingenuous.

In that 44 years, only two Democrats have lost reelection and the first did so back in the 90s. Arbitrary stats mean so little without the context of previous elections - like the fact Murphy is only the second Democrat to run for reelection there in 20 years.

Not to call you out but it absolutely is a Jedi mindtrick to pretend Murphy's very close win in a state he led, according to most polls, by 8 or so points, a state where the Democratic Party controls all facets of the government, is a bigger victory for our side than losing Virginia, a state where McAuliffe was governor and led nearly wire-to-wire until the final weeks of the election.

That's on top of the fact that New Jersey just ousted their top state senator, the senate president, who had held the seat for 25 years, electing a Republican truck driver who spent all of $200 on the race.

Tuesday was not a disaster for the Dems but the fact it flirted with being one can't be handwaved away. The results in NJ are still a concern and no, barely winning a state we should have won comfortably, isn't a bigger story, or a better win than what happened in Virginia.

There's a reason Obama and Biden and Harris all campaigned for McAuliffe and didn't step foot in New Jersey and it's not because they conceded the race due to some arbitrary statistic that doesn't mean much.

[bigtree]

6. he took the state back from Chris Christie and passed some of the most progressive legislation

...in the nation.

Democrats still have a 10 to 2 advantage in the state's U.S. House delegation — one of the Republicans switched parties. Republicans are in shambles there, but it's not happened in a vacuum. All of the same bull was raised and fought back in NJ that other states have struggled to defend against: Covid mandates, gun legislation...

The fact that it was close is a measure of the challenges he faced and overcame with a progressive agenda and progressive accomplishments.

The progressive success story out of NJ far outweighs the tale of a centrist WVa. governor who couldn't win over enough of the republicans he was appealing to with his moderate agenda and appeal.

By the same measure, McAuliffe failed to transform his state with his moderate, centrist approach.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. There is no great victory in NJ. Just a sigh of relief.

The fact we nearly lost the state despite no one expecting even a tight race is not very good optics, no matter how you spin it.

And it certainly isn't a bigger story than losing Virginia.

[bigtree]

10. it's a two-term victory accomplished with progressive policies

...and a progressive campaign.

The NJ Democrat has transformed his state into one of the most progressive in the nation, however close the election may have been. That's the lesson out of NJ.

The lesson in WVa. is that moderate, centrist politics and policy is just a stalking horse for republican victories.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. In a very blue state that has elected one Republican as governor in the last 20 years.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Not a Jedi mind trick, just a false narrative by a lazy media. Nt

[bigtree]

7. same thing

...without the nerdy reference.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

9. For your consideration regarding the normal ebb and flow in U.S. politics:

Link to tweet

[karynnj]

11. Not to mention, they refer to Murphy's win as "eked out", but do not note the closeness in VA

Last edited Thu Nov 4, 2021, 12:09 PM - Edit history (1)

Because NJ changed the rule of when they could process the mail vote, the big cities in NJ are trailing in. They still have a large chunk of Essex county (ie Newark ) not in. I would bet that when ALL the votes are counted - Murphy will have beaten his opponent by more than Younkin beat McAuliffe. (At this point, per the NYT, VA is 50.9 vs 48.4, while NJ is 50.4 vs 48.8) BOTH races were very close.

What they are basing this on is expectations. However, remember the expectation coming into the election was that Younkin was about 1 point ahead - yet they are calling this an "upset". NJ IS well below expectations, but from the remaining vote out - the estimate of how much and where it is coming from, it may be very close to the 4 percent that one near election poll suggested.

Needless to say, these are not the results we would have wanted. I wonder if the fact that these were both states led by Democrats at a point where many people are very worried about the future and unhappy that the implicit promise that things would be back to normal has not really happened. In 2020, Biden was the alternative to the mess Trump created. At this point, Biden DID have a competent rollout of the vaccine and things appeared to be heading back to a better time in late spring early summer, then Delta hit. Add that the economy after a year of COVID clampdown is not back to the smooth, normal economy that we have expected all our lives. The strange thing is that by the normal metrics - GDP, wage growth, or even the stock market - the economy is doing great. The problem is that scarcity of items a person specifically wants to buy and higher prices are more relevant to most.

Many feel that they have been patient and have made sacrifices for almost 2 years now. It is no surprise that the outsider should have an advantage. The key for 2022 may be to fix the supply change problems (which are world wide) and to have people start feeling the benefits of things done.

[bigtree]

13. great points, karynnj

"I would bet that when ALL the votes are counted - Murphy will have beaten his opponent by more than Younkin beat McAuliffe."

...watching the vote.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Virginia was an upset.

McAuliffe led for most the race. He was a former popular governor and the favorite to win. It was only in the last month or so that the race shifted against him.

As for New Jersey, the final polls had Murphy up by eight points, and that included a conservative poll (Trafalgar) that only had him up two:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_ciattarelli_vs_murphy-7372.html

Every other recent poll had him up at least six.

It was way too close. If Democrats are struggling in very blue New Jersey, a state that has elected just one Republican to governor in the last 20 years (Christie), we're going to be in trouble in winnable swing senate races in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania - among others.