Where we are right now using real clear's numbers
If we assume the following states are safe for Obama (HI, CA, OR, WA, NM, MN, IL, MI, PA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, NY, MA, CT, RI, ME, VT) then he has 237. If we assume the following states are safe Romney (AK, ID, AZ, MT, UT, WY, ND, SD, KS, NE, OK, TX, LA, AR, MO, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, IN, WV) then he has 191. That leaves (NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, VA. NC, FL, NH) totaling 110. Obama needs 33. Romney needs 79.
Here are the swing states (west to east)
NV poll average 49 to 46 last 20 Obama won 18 tied 2
CO poll average 47.6 to 47.8 last 20 Obama won 12 Romney won 8
IA poll average 48.8 to 46.8 last 20 Obama won 12 Romney won 5 tied 3
WI poll average 49.8 to 47 last 20 Obama won 18 Romney won 2
OH poll average 47.6 to 45.7 last 20 Obama won 15 Romney won 3 tied 2
NC poll average 44.7 to 50.3 last 20 Obama won 6 Romney won 11 tied 3
VA poll average 48 to 48 last 20 Obama won 14 Romney 6
FL poll average 46.6 to 48.7 last 20 Obama won 9 Romney won 11
NH poll average 48.4 to 47.4 last 20 Obama won 14 Romney won 3 tie 3
Using the above we can rank them as follows number of polls lead in, Obama's number, Obama's lead
Two states (WI and NV) are 18 to 2 in terms of polls won by Obama with Nevada not having a single poll with Romney leading. He can be considered virtually certain to win those states. EV 16
Ohio has 15 poll wins for Obama with 3 wins (all early Oct in aftermath of 1st debate with 2 being GOP) the two ties while being lately are also GOP polls. While this is not quite the near lock that WI and NV are this is a very good hand to be holding. EV 18 which is enough to get Obama to 271
With these numbers Obama has a great chance of winning. Even though he still has won a majority of polls in another 4 states and has a lead in the poll average in two of those and is tied in another and very close in the last. The two he is leading in over half the polls and has a lead in (NH, IA) total 10 EV. His tie is VA with 13. He is down .2 in CO with 9. He has to be considered a strong favorite in NH and IA and a toss up in the other two.
He is behind in the majority of polls in FL and NC totaling 44 EV.
If Obama wins what he is favored to win and loses the rest he would win 281 to 257. If he is a little lucky on election day he would win 294 to 244, a little more lucky 303 to 235.
In short, he has a very good chance of winning 271 to 267. He has a good chance of winning 281 to 257. He has around a 50/50 chance of getting to 303 to 235 and a slight chance (maybe around 10% of seeing above 303)
I would much rather have his hand than Romney'. Romney needs to win not only every state he has lead in a majority of polls but he also has to win, in Ohio, a state he last lead in three weeks ago.
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