538 was showing Trump is way underwater in Virginia if he ran again.

[Quixote1818]

One thing to notice about Trump is that his approval dropped 5 points after Jan 6th occured. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

He had already lost and after Jan 6th he lost a lot more support. I think Jan 6th pretty much doomed his having another possible shot. He may get the nomination but he would have a really hard time even doing as well as he did last time.

[regnaD kciN]

1. The $64,000 Question is...

...even if he did worse than last time, would state voter-suppression laws in places like Georgia and Arizona (and sure to spread elsewhere by 2024) mean that he could pull off another Electoral College win while losing the popular vote even so?

[ColinC]

2. Possibly,

but the states that he needs for a victory (MI, WI and PA) don't have close to as bad voter suppression laws -andhopefully won't by the time 2024 comes around.

[Quixote1818]

3. Thanks for pointing that out. Feel a bit relieved now. LOL nt

[PoliticAverse]

4. Trump is not popular in Virginia.

He lost Virginia in 2016 (49.73% - 44.41%) and 2020 (54.11% - 44.00% ).

[Bucky]

5. Trump won't be running in 2024. In some ways, that's kind of a shame.

The man's taken on too much water over the hull since he left office and the big lawsuits haven't even hit--let alone the legal consequences of his January 6th plot. The movement is gonna leave him behind, along with all of his deadweight, long before he runs. He'll have his true believers behind him, of course, but I'm pretty sure the go-along fascist light majority of Republican voters will have moved on to lighter, more palatable versions of Trump Fascism, by 2023.

I mean, they'd be equally toxic, just as Dubya was as dumb and mean as Reagan. But they're certain to run someone with more plausible deniability over the excesses of Trumpery, Just as Shrub Jr ran as a moderate reconciler, a "compassionate conservative", in 2000. It was a load of hogwash, but Republicans have always been more about sales than having a vision of leadership or national management

[Jarqui]

6. Trump won't be running

He's a low hanging Piñata for the media to distract them and titillate their ratings
Takes away from the scrutiny their eventual candidate will get - helping to protect them as their shine won't wear off as quickly.

Now, they still seem intent on using the Trump model to steal 2024 ....