The Current Surge in Covid-19 Cases

[MineralMan]

is alarming. In my state of Minnesota, we're experiencing it. I mark it as beginning when the word went out that people who had been vaccinated no longer needed to mask up in public. I thought that was a mistake at the time, and continued to wear a mask at the supermarket and other places where I would encounter random people.

The problem was that everyone took that advice as a general thing, and everyone stopped masking up. Unvaccinated and vaccinated people alike. Not a good things. Everything reopened. I remember distinctly going into a restaurant, mask on, to pick up a take-out order. I did not see a single person in that restaurant with a mask, including the staff. Wrong decision.

And now, we find that the vaccines tend to lose some effectiveness after about six months. So, my wife and I got our booster shots as soon as they were available. She got Pfizer, so she got hers a little earlier than I did, since I received the Moderna initial vaccine. Never mind. That was over a month ago, and we're still masking up in public places.

In Minnesota, the worst of the new outbreaks are occurring in more rural parts of the state, where vaccinations rates are low and Republicans are numerous. That appears to be the problem, but we are all at risk, because breakout cases occur and because those non-vaccinators travel into the urban areas on a frequent basis, bringing their Covid-19 cases closer to where I live.

Personally, I think we jumped the gun and became complacent. Now, we're paying for that once again, and the upcoming holidays promise to make matters worse, as people believe they can resume their old travel patterns and attend densely packed holiday gatherings.

So, if you were vaccinated earlier, get the booster. You can get it if it has been six months since your second dose or first dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The guidelines are loose enough that you can just say you're at risk because you're around people. The vaccination sites are not being rigid with the guidelines. If you haven't been vaccinated, well, get vaccinated, already!

Don't let down your guard. The Covid-19 virus don't care.

[iwillalwayswonderwhy]

1. In England it's the same

It’s like the mindset of a lot of people is that they are pretending it’s okay. Including the politicians. The masks came off and I started ordering grocery delivery again instead of shopping in person.

[róisín_dubh]

68. I was over in October...

and one of the few wearing masks on the train into London. I'm heading back in a couple weeks for work and I'll be wearing masks diligently, despite being vexed, having had a breakthrough case, and recently being boosted. I enjoy not having had a cold or strep for nearly 2 years.

[Hav]

2. I think it's just getting started

The Christmas season and winter months were terrible last year due to a similar complacency and lack of urgency to take the needed steps. Considering current record numbers in other countries as well, this season might be even worse. Those who recognize the danger need to be super cautious because of the people who couldn't give a damn about the consequences of their actions.

[jimfields33]

3. Hope it's not as bad as predicted

Florida where I live has finally made it out of it. Hopefully you will soon. Unfortunately the blue states are next to get it in the north. I just want the whole thing over. I’m sure everyone does.

[MineralMan]

5. Looks to me like Florida has stopped reporting Covid data, though.

Not a good sign.

[jimfields33]

7. Yeah but the biggest indicator is hospitals

And they are not overloaded anymore with covid patients.

[RepublicParty_Stank]

16. Correct, since most of those who were

going to die from Florida’s summer delta wave are now dead ☹️

Obviously, vaccinations prevent most hospitalizations and deaths, but not everyone can be vaccinated.

[Tomconroy]

38. It's disappearing in all of the southern states.

[Mariana]

27. They're reporting it

but they're apparently intentionally obscuring the death numbers by delaying reporting and backdating, so it's hard to keep track. For example, on Friday Florida updated their total Covid death count from 60,418 to 60,698. I wouldn't be surprised if they're also undercounting, both cases and deaths from Covid.

[nitpicker]

65. And the last time I looked they were only counting FL residents

Can't scare off the snowbirds and tourists (SARCASM)

[RepublicParty_Stank]

10. Delta has burned through the vulnerable in Florida,

with its attendant high death toll. The next Florida wave won’t hit until the weather drives people inside to the A/C would be my guess.

[Ocelot II]

18. I'm afraid that's what's going to have to happen here, too.

Cold weather drives people indoors; the holidays encourage them to congregate even more, and the unvaccinated in particular are in for it.

[Mariana]

22. I spent a lot of time in Central Florida this year.

In spring and early summer, where I was, hardly anyone distanced or wore masks, and I was even heckled once by an asshole for wearing one in a supermarket. When I went back to the same place in September, the majority of people in the stores were masked and pretty much all were respecting distance. Did you observe the same thing where you are?

[Ocelot II]

4. You are preaching to the choir, I think.

I got my Pfizer booster two days after the FDA approved it, and everybody I know is as vaccinated as they can be. Mask-wearing is still pretty common here in the 'hood, but it could be better. The big problem, as you point out, is what's happening - or not happening - out there in Trump Country, where vaccinations and masks are considered to be the marks of Satan. I am hoping the recent statistics scare the more sensible local people out of their complacency, but I have no hope for the denizens of "Outstate." I recall hearing Michael Osterholm saying that if you don't get vaccinated you will get covid, sooner or later. I've run out of sympathy for those people, but they're filling up hospitals so nobody else can get treated, and exhausting medical staff. That pisses me off immeasurably but it seems like all we can do is wait until they're infected or dead.

[MineralMan]

11. Trouble is that "Outstate" includes places like Anoka County.

Folks from there come to my suburb to shop. Based on what I'm seeing here at the northwest corner of the Interstate loop, people are abandoning masks. I don't like it. I'm still trying to set an example, for all the good that does. The North Health ambulances are still sirening past my house at least a dozen times a day, on their way to Maple Grove Hospital or North Memorial. It's not reassuring, frankly.

[RepublicParty_Stank]

6. Peopling wanting and hoping and wishing the pandemic were over

is understandable, but it’s not reality. The latest I’ve seen indicates that 90-95% vaccination rates are needed to suppress community spread of delta. And, the seniors and other early-vaxxed folks—and those who have so-called “natural immunity” from having already had an earlier case—now have waning immunity.

Unfortunately, given the above, it appears that we’re going to have wave after wave of this for years to come. Those who can’t receive the vaccination will be at very high risk in most areas since 90-95% is not easily achieved.

Not pretty but that seems to be the reality, as far as I can tell.

[wnylib]

50. People who claim natural immunity

because they have had covid are not really immune. Even before delta, it was possible to get the original or alpha variant twice. The estimated immunity after recovery was about 3 months.

So people who had the original or alpha variant of covid are still vulnerable to delta if they don't get vaccinated. But if they do get vaccinated, they have an immunity that's higher and longer lasting than vaccinated people who never had covid.

[RepublicParty_Stank]

12. To my understanding,

waning immunity from the earliest vaxxed and colder weather pushing people indoors is responsible for a lot of the upticks among the states. With delta, 90-95% vaccination rates are needed to prevent community spread. It’s an extremely opportunistic variant, and next years booster may well have delta tweaks.

[Ocelot II]

13. It's probably the vaccine starting to wear off.

When boosters are approved for everybody (soon, I hope), that should improve the situation considerably. Unfortunately it seems that the vaccination rate has to be very high, like 90%, to get this thing under control.

[Blues Heron]

19. not to quibble but it's smallpox not the small pox

[Blues Heron]

21. heh

[Ms. Toad]

25. Flu vaccines have not been more than 50% effective

For nearly a decade. Most years it is around 30-40 percent effective. A vaccine that ineffective is never going to be able to get the fly under control.

[Maru Kitteh]

14. The CDC was, and remains much too slow to promote boosters. As it turns out,

C19 is a 3-dose (or more) vaccine, just as most others are.

[gulliver]

15. Death rates are what count. Republicans and those they lead are creating and suffering that surge...

...for the most part. They do take a few innocent people with them, unfortunately. Also, it's hard to feel like justice is served by a Republican-influenced but generally honest person catching and dying from Covid.

The vaccines work. Full stop. Not getting vaccinated is a varying mix of dumb, misinformed, and rotten-motivated.

[Initech]

24. Yup, they're creating the surge themselves and blaming it on Biden.

That's the infuriating part. The people who aren't vaxxed are gleefully shit posting on Facebook about how they're proudly unvaxxed and posting memes about how Trump should have won the election and it's all a scam to get rid of him. Then when they die because they didn't get vaxxed, they go to Go Fund Me to pay their medical bills.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

23. The wave is fueled by RED states. Outliers do not invalidate the data

Each dot represents a US county.

[gulliver]

37. That's a great graph

[LisaL]

47. Immunity from vaccines waning. Cold weather so people gather inside.

Covid precautions (masking, social distancing) no longer followed.

[Blues Heron]

9. good post

here's the worldometers graph for reference

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/minnesota/

7 day bottomed out right around the fourth of July.

[Tomconroy]

26. If the new pills work as promised, it's kind of going to be a game changer.

[ProfessorGAC]

28. Seeing It In Illinois, Too

Cases are about the rough spot hit in Aug/Sep.
Fortunately, the death rate has been about 60 per day, +/- about 6, since early September.

[BoomaofBandM]

29. We got our boosters yesterday.

There was a line waiting for the pharmacist. There was one other person besides us wearing a mask, and he was also waiting for a vaccination. I would imagine some of the people waiting for a prescription refill is doing so for a medical reason. The only other people wearing a mask were working.

I dont get out much and have some high risk health issues so I am very careful. I have mild asthma and know how scary it is to not be able to breathe. I do not want covid. My husband wears a mask at all times at work. It is a requirement at his job. He does not mind doing the right thing. He has a lot of exposure with the public. He gets very frustrated with people who refuse to wear a mask for the short time they are shopping.

Our county is only 59% vaccinated.

[spinbaby]

30. We're having a local surge as well

My small western Pennsylvania county is up about 25% in the last couple of weeks. The best description I’ve seen of these waves is as the “Hurray Oh Shit Cycle.” Everyone thinks it’s over and then it isn’t because everyone goes back to business as usual.

What’s keeping me up at night now is that three people in my circle of friends and acquaintances have died recently of heart disease. They each had heart problems, so none of the deaths were entirely unexpected, but each died about a week after an event that was high risk for covid exposure. One had been to a big, unmasked family wedding; one had gone bar hopping; and one had a home healthcare worker who had covid symptoms and went to work anyway.

[LisaL]

45. Yep, sure sounds too coincidental.

Covid causes blood clots so someone can die from a heart attack but it was ultimately caused by covid if they are infected.

[ismnotwasm]

31. Europe is surging and we can expect the same here

[progree]

32. Minnesota is #1 in per capita new cases (7 day moving average)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/105910960

U.S. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
(See the county-level colorized map of the U.S., and the table of states below that. The U.S. overall unfortunately is on a definite uptrend again, +15% 7 day average compared to the 7 day average 14 days preceding.)

[pandr32]

33. Complacency and idiocy are going to create another wave

[LisaL]

44. The wave is already starting. Cases are increasing in majority of the states.

NT

[pandr32]

63. Bound to happen here, too.

Hawaii.

[Lonestarblue]

34. I will be wearing masks in public for the whole winter, and perhaps beyond.

I’ve had my booster and a flu shot, but why take chances. Wearing a mask when inside a store is not a big deal, and I rarely go to a restaurant. Masks also help prevent colds. Last year I had none, and I’m hoping to skip a cold this winter also.

[progree]

35. Minn stats: 40% of recent covid deaths were vaxxed. The vaxxed have 1/16 the risk of dying

Minnesota stats: 40% of recent covid deaths were vaxxed. The vaxxed have 1/16 the risk of dying
as the unvaccinated. Yes I know this doesn't seem to compute. But please read on for the explanation.

The same happens to be true of hospitalization rates: the vaccinated make up about 31% of the hospitalized, but have 1/16 the risk of being hospitalized as the unvaxed.

As for cases, the vaccinated have 1/4 the risk as the unvaxed of contracting Covid.

40 percent of COVID-19 deaths are among the vaccinated?

But remember that something like 75 percent of all COVID-19 deaths right now happen to seniors, of whom just under 92 percent were fully vaccinated a month ago.

... roughly 8 percent of seniors who were unvaccinated accounted for 67 percent of all deaths. The other 92 percent accounted for the other third.

More: https://www.democraticunderground.com/105910961

[LisaL]

43. If majority of people are vaxxed, the infections in vaxxed are coming from a bigger pool of people.

Also, immunity is waning. If people haven't been boosted, their protection from vaccine is much lower than it originally was. Time to get boosted.

[progree]

48. Other data might show that, but, interestingly, the Minnesota data, from October, doesn't, FWIW

If people haven't been boosted, their protection from vaccine is much lower than it originally was.

http://view.connect.mpr.org/?qs=705e8290f0ee33f139886fb1f76aaab7431f6bb156cf5d0504678fecdccac150733ab975393955e32b893f1ec0e854232574ba0d728d6d159d7c170c87c3658e918a8e3455fe2f43a08b27bca8942d7e

Also extremely importantly, these ratios have been largely flat for months. The relative case prevalence did take a dive in June and July, as the delta variant took hold in Minnesota, but has been flat since then. This matters since there has been some evidence that vaccine effectiveness can fade with time. That may very well be true, but we're not seeing it in these numbers.

[Heartstrings]

36. My county (Dane) is the only county with a mask mandate in place in WI.

That’s set to expire the end of this month. I’ve gotten my booster but will still mask up even after it expires.

On a good note, my daughter who has been a server for most of her working career starts a new job next week as a travel consultant. $25. an hour and full benefits, unlike her $2.33 an hour no benefit job. Plus, no more dealing with the covidiots.

[cilla4progress]

42. Wonderful!

Congrats to your daughter!!

[Heartstrings]

55. Thank you!

To say she’s pumped is an understatement!

[Rebl2]

39. Just got rid

of mask mandate in KCMO this last week. Big mistake in my opinion.

[cilla4progress]

41. Agree, MM.

I "SMDH" and was surprised when Biden and CDC gave the all clear last June/July.

My daughter just got a breakthrough - asymptomatic, though, thankfully. She was over-confident after getting boosted 2 weeks ago.

Quarantining is hard on a 20-something,l.

[regrestic]

46. Booster Shot

I just got my Moderna booster, since my second dose was in March. I still wear a mask wherever I go, no matter what..
To quote Gene Simmons, " If you're willing to walk among us unvaccinated, you are an enemy."
Couldn't have said it better..

[LW1977]

49. Dozinky Days in New Prague..

A superspreader event in mid September.

[Marthe48]

51. vac. boosted, isolating, masking

staying home on Thanksgiving.

I set a routine at the outset, and I'll follow it from now on.

Good post, thank you.

[MyMission]

52. BOTH Vaccines and masks are needed

To control covid spread and surges. You're right. More people need to understand and mask up.

Vaccinated can still catch covid, can still spread it, can still get sick and feel like crap, and those who were at risk before the vaccine are still at risk, although the vaccine does reduce one's chance of catching it or being very ill or hospitalized. And: Masks add an important layer of protection.

As for the surge in cases, that seems to be the trend; big surge (alpha), reduced cases (masking and lockdown), little surge (some reopening), reduced cases (masking, then vaccine), big surge Delta), reduced cases (masking), (reduced masking, indoor activities) little surge, etc. I simplified, but when cases decline or people get vaxed some take fewer precautions and unmask, which leads to a smaller surge. Much of the tracking data has shown this. I've referred to this NPR link throughout the pandemic, as they use John's Hopkins and other data to report and summarize data and trends. They update it weekly. I'm a data junkie and read and follow the numbers across the US. (I loved the bubble graph someone posted above)

Tracking the coronavirus around the U.S.: See how your state is doing
Updated November 11, 202112:08 PM ET
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

I've continued to wear a mask since getting vaccinated, and am due for my booster, which I'll arrange this coming week.

Wearing a good mask, even if it's not mandatory or recommended, is a smart thing to do.
I've observed that most are willing to wear a mask when required or even requested. But too many places don't require or request that. Too many want "normal" and don't realize things can't get back there if we don't keep masking up for a while.
And masks also will reduce colds and flu.

[BumRushDaShow]

53. We have had an indoor mask mandate here in Philly

since August (for any indoor setting, including schools, save for when eating at a restaurant) and there is no lifting of that any time soon.

The problem is, our city (which is also its own county) is probably the only one in the state of PA with any mask mandate, but then as the most populous in the state, we also had the largest number of total cases/hospitalizations/deaths through the pandemic.

However with the vaccine push continuing and indoor (public facility) masking requirements, we have been able to (so far) get it down to about a 3% positivity (with ~13 cases/100K), where the rest of the state as a whole, is averaging somewhere on the order of 8% - 10% positivity (depending on what tracker you look at), and is still cranking out 4000 - 5000 positives a day.

[BlueJac]

54. I knew this was going to happen...

I have been keeping an eye on Europe because it starts getting higher numbers there first. Americans can't keep their minds focused long enough to get to a better place. I hope we can avoid a huge surge in cases.

[MineralMan]

57. Well, I didn't know it would happen, but I was apprehensive

about it, so I continue to mask in public.

[Hamlette]

56. Europe has been bad for a few weeks except in Spain and Portugal with 80 and 88% vaccination rates

places with a 74% vaccination rate like Belgium have high covid rates so 74% doesn't appear high enough.

No way America could ever get to 80%

[MineralMan]

58. Yes. We Americans are quite resistant to things like vaccinations.

It's very frustrating.

[progree]

62. Interestingly, 91.9% of MN seniors are fully vaxed. WTF is wrong with us? ?

and 95.7% with at least one dose. (People with J&J are counted as both "at least one dose" and "fully vaxed" )

anyway, it indicates that people who are worried enough do get vaxed (75% of MN covid deaths are seniors).

http://view.connect.mpr.org/?qs=705e8290f0ee33f139886fb1f76aaab7431f6bb156cf5d0504678fecdccac150733ab975393955e32b893f1ec0e854232574ba0d728d6d159d7c170c87c3658e918a8e3455fe2f43a08b27bca8942d7e

See the bar graph below the "Kids' vaccinations start to ramp up" topic with the unsearchable (graphic) title

"Total Covid-19 vaccinations to date by age"

Edited to add, from my post #35 above, quoting MPR reporter David Montgomery:

But remember that something like 75 percent of all COVID-19 deaths right now happen to seniors, of whom just under 92 percent were fully vaccinated a month ago.

... roughly 8 percent of seniors who were unvaccinated accounted for 67 percent of all deaths. The other 92 percent accounted for the other third.

I think too many in younger demographics with much lower probability of hospitalization and death see this as a "real man" (and "real woman" ) thing, of being tough and resilient and not being scare-dy cats hiding in their mama's basement blah blah

without any thought being given to the effects on others that, as unvaxxed, they are much more likely to infect.

[CrispyQ]

59. My sister invited me for Christmas & I kindly declined.

She has a couple of right-wing friends. I didn't ask who was invited. I haven't been diligent for almost two years to catch Covid now. I just scheduled my booster. The only criteria was that it had been six months since my last vax.

[HUAJIAO]

60. "..when the word went out that people who had been vaccinated no longer needed to mask up in public.

ABSOLUTELY ! They really blew that and we all knew it at the tme
Really stupid move....
I live in what is mostly rural Up-State NY, although in a town of about 20,000 not far from Rochester. The Finger Lakes Region has the highest infection rate in the state !!! TERRIBLE!

And the rest of your comments are right on the $$$$$$$$

[MineralMan]

61. Thanks!

[mucifer]

64. IL still has a mask mandate. Chicago vaccine numbers aren't very high. But, people wear masks

for the most part. I still think this winter we will surge and the virus will mutate.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

66. COVID-19 is Arizona's leading cause of death as cases rise, Arizona Public Health Association says

snip---
Arizona is the only state where COVID-19 has become the leading cause of death.

Health officials are still urging people to take precautions, especially as we head into the busy holiday season.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/arizona-reports-3985-additional-covid-19-cases-51-deaths

COVID-19 is now spreading fastest in smaller and more rural Arizona counties.

[nitpicker]

67. Still waiting for MY booster shot

Under-65, no qualifying conditions...

As soon as the authorities will let me get shot, I'll be in line.

[Wednesdays]

71. If you're really determined, you can get your booster now

YMMV, but when I got my booster last Thursday, they handed me a form to fill out that included two check boxes, one asking if I was over 65, and the other if I had any conditions that would compromise my immune system.

I checked the second box. They didn't ask any follow-up questions or anything to determine the validity of my claim before I got my shot.