Beto's race for Texas governor - analysis at the Texas Tribune...

[msongs]

this will be a much different race than against Ted Cruz


https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/15/beto-orourke-texas-governor-2022-election/

[brooklynite]

1. If the exact same story ran in POLITICO, folks here would complain it was a "hit job".....

This time, national politics will not play in his favor. Trump is out of office, President Joe Biden is deeply unpopular in Texas and Democrats are expecting to take a beating in the midterm elections nationwide.

Meanwhile, O’Rourke’s shine has dulled considerably after an unsuccessful presidential campaign during which he took positions that could be politically perilous in Texas.

“The dynamics are just much more different, and the climate’s totally different,” said Nick Maddux, a Texas Republican strategist who worked on Cruz’s 2018 campaign.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/15/beto-orourke-texas-governor-2022-election/

[msongs]

3. my recollection is that it was a reasonably balanced article. situation is different without

trump as the foil

[panader0]

13. 46.5% of Texans voted for Biden in 2020. 51% for trump.

Is that "deeply unpopular'? I read the article and feel that the Texas Tribune is skewed to the right.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

17. They mean current approval ratings.

In the article, it says that Biden is at something like 35/55. They also point out that Abbott is hovering at around 50 disapproval himself.

I've always found the Texas Tribune to be pretty fair overall.

[Polybius]

2. Yeah, that "Heck yeah we're gonna take your AK-47" comment was beyond stupid

I don't even know if he'll get the nomination.

[TexasTowelie]

4. Seriously?

I checked Ballotpedia and there are three other candidates that have announced on the Democratic side. There is zero name recognition with all three.

https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_gubernatorial_election,_2022

The only other Democrats that have similar name recognition are the Castro brothers and they haven't indicated any interest in the race. Unless Beto is indicted for a crime, the nomination is his.

[Polybius]

7. I said "I don't know"

I didn't say definitely. I based that on the possibility of a Castro running. Larry Baggett looks good. For a Democrat to win statewide in Texas, he has to have this look:

[callous taoboy]

11. Good point about the look.

It's hard to know what will tickle the urban Democrat funny bone. All of the large urban areas in Texas are blue, so do they tip toward Beto and his comment about taking AKs away, or a guy that looks more rural and hasn't said anything to alarm gun owners? Beto knows how to hustle the vote, that's for sure.

[harumph]

19. Let me help. I'm a Texan in an urban area.

I own guns and considering how batshit insane Magats are - I'm glad I have them.
I'll support Beto if he's the guy. I'd rather have another candidate - preferably Mexican American.
I think Beto often plays better outside of Texas. How's that?

[walkingman]

5. His comment won't help him with Republican voters but

they weren't going to vote for him anyway. The question is whether swing voters want reasonable gun control. I think most people think that Abbott and the GOP legislature has gone too far. Besides that Beto is not just a one issue candidate.

Any Democrat will have a hard time in rural America but there are an equal or larger number that are fed up with "crazyville". I am for sure. At some point, even in Texas, people want representative government and we don't have it in Texas.

I think a good move by Beto is to push for Marijuana legalization to attract progressive voter to VOTE. Just VOTE and unbelievable good things can happen.

I am sick and tired of listening and looking at that "dickless" Abbott.

[Polybius]

6. Not in Texas

And certainly not in a Red Wave year. He won't get anywhere neat the 48% or so that he got against Cruz in the Blue Wave year of 2018.

[walkingman]

8. I keep hoping that we (my fellow Texans) are better than this. I know, I know, after

seeing us elect "W", and Perry 4 times, and then Abbott it seems hopeless but......damn we gotta try.

[Polybius]

9. I'd rather try with a moderate who we're gonna hate at times

It's our best chance. Joe Manchin is about 1,000 times better than Abbott.

[walkingman]

15. Boy, that really sets the bar pretty low. I'd much prefer someone that is more liberal

and would like to live in the 21st century. Be more interested in public service than Corporate Greed. The way we're heading our democracy is in "Peril".

[LiberatedUSA]

12. Do you think Beto's idea falls under sensible?

Telling owners of the guns hand them over by a certain date for a price we decide, not you. Also, the implication is if you don’t, the same police we spent all of 2020 protesting for being violent killers, we will have armed with the same guns we say are only good for mass murder to come take those same guns from you (because you won’t sell them for the price we decided they are with) under threat of jail or death.

1 - Do you think that is sensible?

2 - What happens when red states ignore it for the same reasons blue states ignore federal marijuana laws (make them legal in their state)? Start a war of hypocrisy by using guns to take guns?

[walkingman]

14. I think America's love affair with guns is ignorant and dangerous. Why perpetuate it?

As far as Texas ignoring laws - they do it already and have done so forever.

I think Beto would be a definite upgrade to the GOP leadership (or lack of) that we have had for over 30 years. This is not the wild west nor an insane asylum and it is time we stopped acting like it.

[harumph]

20. No not sensible at all - see my post above.

I think we need a functioning democracy with election safeguards BEFORE we start talking seriously about
gun buy-backs etc. I simply lack the faith that we're moving in the "functioning democracy" direction - in fact,
it appears to be more of the same bullshit. Why isn't Mike Flynn cooling his heels in Leavenworth. Seriously?
A coup was attempted in this country.
I suspect we'll be told once again to wait...be patient...
justice will come...yada-yada-yada, and other well meaning assurances from the chattering classes.

[Poiuyt]

10. Unfortunately, I think Beto has zero chance of getting elected in Texas after his remark

about taking back the guns. I think his political career in that state is over after that.

[Midnight Writer]

16. Beto is a worker. That is the key to beating a complacent incumbent. You outwork them.

And I don't think the Governor in Texas has much input over gun control. He hasn't the authority to take anyone's guns.

[blogslug]

18. It's going to be a hard slog

Beto will put in the work. Greg Abbot is a damned monster.